Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.48 | EURUSD 1.12258 | AUDUSD 0.69797 | NZDUSD 0.66259 | USDCAD 1.3078 | USDCHF 0.99166 | GBPUSD 1.2528 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12295 | 1.12199
USDJPY 108.582 | 108.317
GBPUSD 1.25309 | 1.25212
USDCHF 0.99163 | 0.98996
AUDUSD 0.69891 | 0.6979
USDCAD 1.30791 | 1.30709
NZDUSD 0.66418 | 0.66231
EURCHF 1.11330 | 1.11142
EURGBP 0.89667 | 0.89575
EURJPY 121.894 | 121.604
For Today
• GBP: Apart from the TRY the market was again becalmed with the market opening around the 1.2530 level and drifting a little through the session but remaining in the 1.2520-30 areas throughout, Downside bids into the 1.2500-1.2480 levels with possible weak stops on a dip through however, sentimental bids through into the 1.2450 level likely to be congestive and slow any dip lower with strong bids likely through into the 1.2400 areas and likely strong stops on a move through opening possible deeper moves. Topside offers light through to the 1.2580-1.2600 level likely to be a little stubborn however a breakthrough could see a weak short squeeze materializing and the market open to the 1.2650-1.2700 level with light congestion in the area.
• JPY: Opening around the 108.40 area the market moved into the Tokyo session testing through to the 108.60 level before drifting through to mid-session testing the 108.40 levels and after a brief recovery drifting through to the grey hour testing towards the 108.30 level. downside light bids through to the congested 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers again building through to the 108.50 level however, congestion still remains and likely to increase on any test to the 108.80 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.00 level and stronger congestion in the 108.40-60 areas likely to limit further gains.
• AUD: A slow rise from the opening around the 0.6980 level to push almost to the 0.6990 area in a very strong rally (not) for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
• EUR: Ranging for the most part around the opening level of 1.1225 level pushing to the 1.1230 and then drifting down to the 1.1220 areas before recovering and holding the 1.1225 level to the grey hour, , topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance through the topside and the market, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids.

Overnight News
TRY:
Erdogen fires Central bank chief as policy rifts deepen – RTRs
EUR:
Greek Conservatives take strong lead in exit poll – RTRs
UK lawmakers weigh up options to try to block a no deal Brexit – RTRs
USD:
Trump: Our Fed reserve doesn’t have a clue, our most difficult problem is not our competitors it the Fed reserve
Trump: Strong jobs report, low inflation, and other countries around the world doing anything possible to take advantage of the US, knowing that the Fed doesn’t have a clue –
Trump: They raised rates too soon, too often and tightened while others did just the opposite
USD/CNY:
Trade war: hardliners in Beijing are gaining influence
Chinese urging concession for Washington have been attacked by the media

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY) A -7.8% | C -3.7% | P 5.2%
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAY) A -3.7% | C -3.6% | P 2.5%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN) A 4.6% | P -8.4%
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey Current (JUN) A | C 43.8 | P 44.1
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA (JUN) A | C 44.5 | P 45.6
06:00 EUR German IP s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.3% | P -1.9%
06:00 EUR German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) C -3.2% | P -1.8%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (MAY) C 17.0b | P 17.9b
06:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAY) C 12.5b | P 22.6b
06:00 EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.8% | P -3.7%
19:00 USD Consumer Credit (MAY) C $16.900b | P $17.497b
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUN) C -1.5% | P -3.0%
23:30 JPY Labour Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) C -0.6% | P -0.1%
23:30 JPY Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) C -1.4% | P -1.1%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet Asian session culminating in a rise into the London opening for the high of the day just above the 1.2585 level and only just above the opening level, by midmorning the Cable started to dip and ran through to the 1.2550 levels for the move into the NYK session and dipped on a USD rally once the better than expected NFP was releases to steadily test through to the 1.2480 level before bouncing a little back above the figure and then running steadily higher to the close around the 1.2530 areas.
• JPY: A slow rise through the Asian session pushing from the low just below the 107.80 areas to move into the London session around 10 pips higher, London were a little faster buying and by midmorning the market pushed above the 108.00 levels and rising through to the NYK opening and NFP numbers triggering a quickly rise from the 108.15 areas to the 108.50 level where the market stalled and traded around the level making the highs just beyond the 108.60 level before drifting to a close around the 108.50 areas.
• AUD: Very slow day for the Oz until the NFP number with the market holding around the 0.7025 level before rising to the highs for the day just short of the 0.7030 area before holding quietly around the opening level, the move through the London session saw the market holding around the 0.7020 areas and only started to dip a little on the move through to the NYK session dropping after the NFP falling quickly through to the 0.6990 pausing a little before again dropping at a slightly more sedate speed through to the 0.6960 area before bouncing like a soggy cat but continuing to slowly rise to the 0.6980 levels.
• EUR: A repeat story with the market quiet through the Asian session and contained in a 10 pip range through to London before slowly drifting through to the NYK session holding the 1.1260 areas NFP saw the market dropping quickly through the 1.1240 level and then continuing the move to test the 1.1210 areas before drifting to the close in very quiet trading.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY Leading Index CI (MAY P) A 95.2 | C 95.3 | P 95.9
JPY Coincident Index (MAY P) A 103.2 | C 103.2 | P 102.1
EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (MAY) A -2.2 | C -0.1% | P 0.3%
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) A -8.6% | C -6.3% | P 5.3%
GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM) (JUN) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.5%
GBP Unit Labour Costs (YoY) (1Q) A 2.1% | P 3.1%
CAD Net Change in Employment (JUN) A -2.2K | P 27.7k
CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 5.5% | C 5.5% | P 5.4%
CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (YoY) (JUN) A 3.6% | P 2.6%
CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUN) 24.1K | P 27.7K
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUN) A 224k | C 163k | P 75k | R 72k
USD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 3.7% | C 3.6% | P 3.6%
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN) A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) A 3.1% | C 3.2% | P 3.1%
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUN) A 34.4 | C 34.4 | P 34.4

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