Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.856 | EURUSD 1.12077 | AUDUSD 0.69288 | NZDUSD 0.66056 | USDCAD 1.3129 | USDCHF 0.99362 | GBPUSD 1.24634 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12103 | 1.12019

USDJPY                 108.991 | 108.858

GBPUSD               1.24623 | 1.24507

USDCHF               0.99412 | 0.99304

AUDUSD              0.69311 | 0.69185

USDCAD               1.31338 | 1.3125

NZDUSD               0.66067 | 0.65658

EURCHF                1.11386 | 1.11295

EURGBP               0.90008 | 0.89921

EURJPY                 122.108 | 121.996

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session with the market slowly drifting towards the 1.2450 level through into midsession and holding through to the grey hour, sentimental bids into the 1.2450 level likely to be congestive and slow any dip lower with strong bids likely through into the 1.2400 areas and likely strong stops on a move through opening possible deeper moves. Topside offers light through to the 1.2580-1.2600 level likely to be a little stubborn however a breakthrough could see a weak short squeeze materializing and the market open to the 1.2650-1.2700 level with light congestion in the area.
  • JPY: A steady rise from the opening to the 108.90 level before Tokyo fix saw the market testing to the highs but falling short of the 109.00 level and after a couple of hours of lightly probing the topside dipping back to range around the 108.90 level through into the grey hour, downside light bids through to the congested 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers remain around the 109.00 areas however, they could be a little light and a push through will likely see a quick run to the 109.30 areas and stronger congestion through to 109.60  and building to stronger offers above the 109.80 areas.
  • AUD: A very quiet session opening around the 0.6930 level and a slow drift through the Tokyo session to test the 0.6920 level and holding around the level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 70 cents level with possibly some medium size offers around the level with a move through the 0.7050 likely then to see stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Early selling saw the market test through to the 1.1202 areas and the low for the day, a steady rise through to the 1.1210 area saw the range defined and holding through to the grey hour just off the highs, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids.

 

Overnight News

EUR:

France to impose green tax on plane tickets

Lagarde set for October confirmation as next ECB president

EUR/IRR:

Europeans take first step to punish Iran over nuclear pact breaches

USD/INR:

Trump again attacks India, says tariffs unacceptable

USD:

Trump threatens veto of House defence bill over spending levels. WSJ

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Westpac Consumer Conf Index (JUL) A 96.5 | P 100.7

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) A -4.1% | P-0.6%

CNY        Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A 2.7% | C 2.7% | P 2.7%

CNY        Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.6%

08:30     GBP        Monthly GDP (MoM) (MAY) C 0.3% | P -0.4%

08:30     GBP       Monthly GDP (3M/3M) (MAY) C 0.1% | P 0.3%

08:30     GBP        Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY) C 1.5% | P -2.7%

08:30     GBP        Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY) C 1.2% | P -1.0%

08:30     GBP        Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY) C 2.2% | P -3.9%

08:30     GBP        Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY) C 1.1% | P -0.8%

08:30     GBP        Construction Output (MoM) (MAY) C 0.4% | P -0.4%

08:30     GBP        Construction Output (YoY) (MAY) C 0.9% | P 2.4%

08:30     GBP        Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY) C -£12.5b | P -£12.1b

08:30     GBP        Trade Balance (MAY) C -£3.2b | P -£2.74b

11:00     USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 5) P -0.1%

14:00     CAD       Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 10) C 1.75% | P 1.75%

14:00     USD        Fed’s Powell Testifies Before House Financial Services Panel

14:00     USD        Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (MAY F) C 0.4% | P 0.4%

14:30     USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 5) P -1085k

18:00     USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes (JUN 19)

23:01     GBP        RICS House Price Balance (JUN) C -12.0% | P -10.0%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session with the market moving away from the early highs just above the 1.2520 level to slip slowly through to just above the 1.2505 level and into the stronger selling London session push through to the 1.2480 areas pausing for a short period and again testing through to the 1.2460 to find some stronger bids, the move through to the NYK session saw another round of strong selling from the opening this time pushing through the 1.2450 level to test lightly to the 1.2440 before bouncing and pushing back to the 1.2470 level and ranging around the 1.2460 level to the close.
  • JPY: A contained choppy session for the USDJPY with the market lifting from the early lows around the 108.70 level and pushing through into Tokyo to push quickly through to the 108.90 level before holding steadily for a few hours before dropping back to the opening level, the move into the London session saw the market again rising through to the 108.90 level and after a slight dip running again and extending the highs just above the 108.95 level before drifting and dipping back to 108.80 where the market ranged in a tight pattern through to late in the session before running for the last time but only just sneaking past the 108.90 level before drifting to the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the highs 0.6975 area the market drifted through into the Tokyo session and fell slowly back to the 0.t6955 area before holding through to the London session, London were steady sellers taking the Oz through to the 0.6930 area through early morning and the market based along that level into the NYK session before dipping through to make the low of the day around the 0.6920 areas and a slow rise to the close.
  • EUR: Drifting around through the Asian session making the early highs just short the 1.1220 areas and then falling back to the 1.1210 area, the market moved through into the London session after a brief push to the highs and dipped through the 1.1210 level testing to the 1.1205 level recovering a little and running for the second time with a little more conviction to test to the lows in the low 1.1190’s before start a nervous steady rise through into the NYK session however, the market was unable to recover the losses and traded around the 1.1205 through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

GBP        BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUN) A -1.6% | C -1.5% | P -3.0%

JPY         Labour Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) A –0.2% | C -0.6% | P -0.1% | R -0.3%

AUD       NAB Business Conditions (JUN) A 3 | P 1

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (JUN) A 2 | P 7

CHF        Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 2.1% | C 2.2% | P 2.3%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN) A 2.3% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

JPY         Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P) A -38 | P -27.3%

MXN      CPI (YoY) (JUN) A 3.95% | C 3.95% | P 4.28%

MXN      CPI (MoM) (JUN) A 0.06% | C 0.06% | P -0.29%

MXN      CPI Core (MoM) (JUN) A 0.30% | C 0.32% | P 0.16%

CAD       Housing Starts (JUN) A 245.7k | C 208.6k | P 202.3k

CAD       Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) A 13.0% | P 14.7%

 

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