Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.493 | EURUSD 1.12536 | AUDUSD 0.69735 | NZDUSD 0.66661 | USDCAD 1.30693 | USDCHF 0.99031 | GBPUSD 1.25236 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12736 | 1.12496

USDJPY                 108.608 | 108.293

GBPUSD               1.25450 | 1.25209

USDCHF               0.99075 | 0.98911

AUDUSD              0.69988 | 0.69719

USDCAD               1.30681 | 1.30353

NZDUSD               0.66855 | 0.66614

EURCHF                1.11541 | 1.11409

EURGBP               0.89885 | 0.89823

EURJPY                 122.227 | 122.05

For Today

  • GBP: A steady rise from the lows in early Tokyo just above the 1.2520 level slowly pushing through the session to test to the 1.2545 areas before slowing into the grey hour and holding, bids into the 1.2450 level likely to be congestive and slow any dip lower with strong bids likely through into the 1.2400 areas and likely strong stops on a move through opening possible deeper moves. Topside offers light through to the 1.2580-1.2600 level likely to be a little stubborn however a breakthrough could see a weak short squeeze materializing and the market open to the 1.2650-1.2700 level with light congestion in the area.
  • JPY: Quiet move into the Tokyo session rising just after the opening to test the 108.60 level before starting a slow drift through to the 108.30 areas and holding through to the London session around the 108.40 level, downside light bids through to the 108.00 area and congested around the 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers remain around the 109.00 areas however, they could be a little light and a push through will likely see a quick run to the 109.30 areas and stronger congestion through to 109.60  and building to stronger offers above the 109.80 areas.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6975 level the market held around the level posting lows around the 0.6972 area before starting a slow steady rise to the 70 cents area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 70 cents level with possibly some medium size offers around the level with a move through the 0.7050 likely then to see stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Dipping from early highs pre-Tokyo saw the market testing the 1.1250 level to make the low of the day so far, before rising steadily through the session to push just above the 1.1270 level in quiet trading, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids.

 

 

Overnight News

SGD:

Singapore GDP growth comes in flat and far below expectations – Flash data

USD:

Trump escalates war on social media at White house summit

US seeks to ease dispute between S. Korea and Japan

US plans Gulf naval escorts after Iranians menace UK oil tanker

US trade uncertainties sparked business shock – Powell

Trump blasts Bitcoin, Facebooks Libra, demands they face banking regulations

US FX Intervention – Low but rising risk – CNBC

USD/IRN:

US-India trade talks to restart after Trump’s tariff tweets

CNY:

China’s GDP growth seen slowing to 6.2% in second quarter – AFP poll

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

CNY        Trade Balance CNY (JUN) A | C 276.00b | P 279.12b

CNY        Trade Balance (JUN) A | C $45.25b | P $41.65b

JPY         Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) A 2.00% | P 2.3%

JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) A -2.1% | P -1.8%

JPY         Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) A 1.7% | P 1.6%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P -0.5%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) C -1.6% | P -0.4%

11:00     MXN      Industrial Production NSA (YoY) (MAY) C -1.5% | P -2.9%

12:30     USD        PPI Final Demand (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

12:30     USD        PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (JUN) C 0.2% | P 0.2%

12:30     USD        PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (MoM) (JUN) C 0.2% | P 0.4%

12:30     USD        PPI Final Demand (YoY) (JUN) C 1.6% | P 1.8%

12:30     USD        PPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUN) C 2.1% | P 2.3%

12:30     USD        PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (YoY) (JUN) P 2.3%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet move through the early part of the Asian session holding around the opening area through to the 1.2510 levels before pushing steadily through to the 1.2535 area for the move into the London session, quiet through London lifting in midmorning to test through to the 1.2570 level on USD selling and holding through to the NYK session before seeing light sellers moving in taking the market back to the 1.2530 levels bouncing and then running back to the opening levels and a long run through to the close holding around the 1.2525 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY sellers from the opening with the market trading through into the Tokyo session some 15 pips lower and testing the 108.30 level, the move eventually accelerated and the market ran through to midsession testing through to the 107.90 after a limited pause around the 108.10 level, from the midsession the market started a slow rise through to the 108.10 level again into the London session before ranging around the level through to NYK and quick buyers to the 108.30 level, once London left for the day the market started a limited run through to the 108.50 areas and holding through to the close around the level.
  • AUD: The weaker USD dominated the market through the Asian session with the market initially pushing into midsession in Tokyo testing the 0.6950 levels before rising steadily through to the 0.6980 level as the AUDJPY sellers disappeared, the market held quietly through to the London session, a slow rise through to the NYK session saw the market testing the 0.6990 level and the high of the day before drifting through to the close.
  • EUR: EURO’s saw a steady climb through the early part of Asia pushing lightly through from the opening 1.1255 level to the 1.1265 area before rising just as quickly as the other pairs as USD sellers appeared in the market pushing through to the 1.1280 level before ranging quietly through into the London session with the market ranging around the 1.1270-80 levels and a brief rally into the NYK opening to make the highs around the 1.1285 areas before dropping back quickly through to the opening levels and a long run to the close and the market making the lows just below the 1.1250 area and closing just above the level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

GBP        RICS       House Price Balance (JUN) A -1.0% | C -12.0% | P -10.0%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL) A 3.2% | P 3.3%

AUD       Home Loans (MoM) (MAY) A -0.1% | C -1.0% | P -1.1%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.8%

EUR        German CPI (MoM) (JUN F) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%

EUR        German CPI (YoY) (JUN F) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%

GBP        BOE publishes Financial Stability Report

EUR        ECB Publishes Account of June 5-6 Policy Meeting (JUN)

CAD       New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAY) A -0.1% | P 0.1%

USD        CPI (MoM) (JUN) A 0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.1%

USD        CPI (YoY) (JUN) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.8%

USD        CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (JUN) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%

USD        CPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUN) A 2.1% | C 2.0% | P 2.0%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 6) A 209K | C 221k | P 221k

USD        Continuing Claims (JUN 29) A 1723k | C 1682k | P 1686k

USD        Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) A 1.5% | P 1.3%

USD        Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) A 1.2% | P 1.0%

USD        Fed’s Powell Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee

USD        EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 5) A 81 | P 89

 

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