Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.902 | EURUSD 1.12708 | AUDUSD 0.70212 | NZDUSD 0.66954 | USDCAD 1.30274 | USDCHF 0.98418 | GBPUSD 1.2577 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.12748 | 1.12631

USDJPY                108.110 | 107.797

GBPUSD              1.25799 | 1.25522

USDCHF               0.98566 | 0.98340

AUDUSD             0.70352 | 0.70125

USDCAD              1.30427 | 1.30261

NZDUSD              0.67226 | 0.66799

EURCHF               1.11033 | 1.10868

EURGBP              0.89787 | 0.89575

EURJPY                121.844 | 121.499

For Today

  • GBP: Wide opening with the market trading up from just below the 1.2560 level to test to just under the 1.2580 level before a steady slide through to the 1.2560 level again and ranging in the 1.2560-70 through to the London session, bids into the 1.2500 level likely to be congestive and slow any dip lower with strong bids likely through into the 1.2450-1.2400 areas and likely strong stops on a move through opening possible deeper moves. Topside offers light through to the 1.2580-1.2600 level likely to be a little stubborn however a breakthrough could see a weak short squeeze materializing and the market open to the 1.2650-1.2700 level with light congestion in the area.
  • JPY: A slow opening and holding quietly through deep into the Tokyo session before rising through the 108.00 level and holding in a tight range around the 108.00-10 to the London session, downside light bids through to the 108.00-107.80 area and congested around the 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers remain around the 109.00 areas however, they could be a little light and a push through will likely see a quick run to the 109.30 areas and stronger congestion through to 109.60  and building to stronger offers above the 109.80 areas.
  • AUD: Opening a touch lower the market drifted through early Tokyo to the 0.7010 areas before making a steady recovery through the second half of the session to push through the 0.7030 level and holding just above the level through into the grey hour, topside offers likely to be fairly strong into the 0.7040-60 area with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited offers from the 0.7080-0.7120 area and the topside likely to quickly push for the 0.7150 areas on a break, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Very light trading with the market ranging in the 1.1265-75 level through to the grey hour, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids

 

Overnight News

AUD:

Australian economy stuck in sub-par growth, but to dodge recession poll

TRY:

Erdogan says Turkey will make serious interest rate cuts

USD:

Trump under fire for racist attack on US congresswomen

GBP/USD:

Boris Johnson would meet Trump to negotiate trade deal after becoming PM – Times

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP        Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL) A -0.2% | P 0.0%

CNY        New Home Prices (MoM) (JUN) A 0.66% | P 0.71%

CNY        Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) A 6.3% | C 5.2% | P 5.0%

CNY        Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 6.0% | C 5.9% | P 6.0%

CNY        Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) A 9.8% | C 8.5% | P 8.6%

CNY        Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 8.4% | C 8.2% | P 8.1%

CNY        Surveyed Jobless Rate (JUN) A 5.1% | P 5.0%

CNY        Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) A 1.6% | C 1.5% | P 1.4%

CNY        Gross Domestic Product YTD (YoY) (2Q) A 6.3% | C 6.3% | P 6.4%

CNY        Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)           A 6.2% | C 6.2% | P 6.4%

CNY        Property Investment YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 10.9% | P 11.2%

12:30     USD        Empire Manufacturing (JUL) C 2.0 | P -8.6

22:45     NZD       Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) C 0.6% | P 0.1%

22:45     NZD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) C 1.7% | P 1.5%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: After a nervous start to the day the Tokyo session steadily pushed the Cable through to the 1.2540 level from the opening just above the 1.2520 area London extended the high through to the 1.2550 level before the market drifted off again to reacquire contact with the opening levels, the move through to NYK saw the market holding those lows before a steady climb through to the 1.2570 level for the close in more or less one way traffic.
  • JPY: Early highs into Tokyo saw the market testing lightly above the 108.60 areas then drifting through the session into early London holding around the 108.35 level, Light buying from early morning saw only limited gains the market slowly drifting into the NYK session to test through to the 108.00 levels holding for a brief period before running through to the 107.80 level before finding some limited buying to hold through to the close just off the lows.
  • AUD: A slow start to the session then a steady rise from early Tokyo onwards trading steadily through the 0.7000 level and holding through in early London with only one minor push testing towards the 0.7010 level before dipping back and holding around the 0.6990 areas for the run into the NYK session, NYK were steady sellers of the USD and the Oz stated a steady climb through to the close around the 0.7020 level to finish the day on its highs.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1255 level the market moved into the Tokyo session dipping to the 1.1250 level before starting a slow rise through to test the 1.1275 level and holding through into the London session before starting a slow decline through the session testing back to the opening levels and dipping further to make the lows around the 1.1240 level before NYK started a slow but steady rise for the Euro testing back to the highs of the day to hold quietly around the 1.1270 level into the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY        Trade Balance CNY (JUN) A 345.18b | C 276.00b | P 279.12b

CNY        Trade Balance (JUN) A 50.98b | C $45.25b | P $41.65b

JPY         Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) A 2.00% | P 2.3%

JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) A -2.1% | P -1.8%

JPY         Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) A 1.7% | P 1.6%

EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.9% | C 0.2% | P -0.5%

EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) A -0.5% | C -1.6% | P -0.4%

MXN      Industrial Production NSA (YoY) (MAY) A -3.3% | C -1.5% | P -2.9%

USD        PPI Final Demand (MoM) (JUN) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%

USD        PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (JUN) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

USD        PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (MoM) (JUN) A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P 0.4%

USD        PPI Final Demand (YoY) (JUN) A 1.7% | C 1.6% | P 1.8%

USD        PPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUN) A 2.3% | C 2.1% | P 2.3%

USD        PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (YoY) (JUN) A 2.1% | P 2.3%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.