Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.906 | EURUSD 1.12536 | AUDUSD 0.70374 | NZDUSD 0.67184 | USDCAD 1.3049 | USDCHF 0.98452 | GBPUSD 1.25161 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12633 | 1.12555
USDJPY 108.095 | 107.824
GBPUSD 1.25204 | 125.076
USDCHF 0.98541 | 0.9839
AUDUSD 0.70442 | 0.70328
USDCAD 1.30588 | 1.30441
NZDUSD 0.67376 | 0.67144
EURCHF 1.10943 | 1.10771
EURGBP 0.90000 | 0.89923
EURJPY 121.663 | 121.429
For Today
GBP: Another quiet session with the market opening around the 1.2520 areas before ranging quietly through to the 1.2510 levels in slow trading, bids into the 1.2500 level likely to be congestive and slow any dip lower with strong bids likely through into the 1.2450-1.2400 areas and likely strong stops on a move through opening possible deeper moves. Topside offers light through to the 1.2580-1.2600 level likely to be a little stubborn however a breakthrough could see a weak short squeeze materializing and the market open to the 1.2650-1.2700 level with light congestion in the area.
JPY: Opening around the 107.90 level a little dip to test through the 107.85 level before finding some support as the Tokyo session opened and a slow but steady rise through to the 107.95 level before a quick spike higher to test quickly towards the 108.10 area before dipping back and holding just below the 108.00 level through to the London session, downside bids remain around the 107.80 area and congested around the 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers remain around the 109.00 areas however, they could be a little light and a push through will likely see a quick run to the 109.30 areas and stronger congestion through to 109.60 and building to stronger offers above the 109.80 areas.
AUD: Opening just below the 0.7040 areas the market slowly rose into the Tokyo session to the 0.7045 areas before moving slowly through to the lows just beyond the 0.7035 areas and holding just above the level through to the grey hour, topside offers likely to be fairly strong into the 0.7040-60 area with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited offers from the 0.7080-0.7120 area and the topside likely to quickly push for the 0.7150 areas on a break, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
EUR: A narrow range from the opening around the 1.1260 level with the market ranging tightly through to the grey hour struggling with the topside for part of the early part of the session before testing the 1.1255 level and holding around the 1.1260 level through to the grey hour, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids
Overnight News
USD:
Do not anticipate a government shutdown
Another principle level call with China trade negotiators later this week
GBP/USD;
PM candidate Johnson: The US is ruthless in trade negotiations; we would be tough with the US in talks on US-UK trade deal
AUD:
RBA: Lowe rates unlikely to spur unwelcome rise in borrowing
RBA: Further job market gains needed for wages to rise materially
RBA: To adjust policy if needed to support growth, inflation
JPY/KRW:
Trade Minister Min Seko: Regrettable that S. Korean Govt. made mistaken explanation following working level bilateral meeting on exports
Ongoing tensions between Japan and Korea president Moon commented that the govt. and companies should be prepared for all possibilities
NZD:
NZ Inflation quickens in Q2, but rate cut views remain
NZ PM utterly disagrees with Trump tweets
CNY/USD:
China’s hawkish new face in US talks, Zhong Shan shows Beijing is not close to a trade deal Washington think tank
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
22:45 NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.1%
22:45 NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.5%
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes of July Policy Meeting (JUL)
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) P 3.1%
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) P 23.2k
08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAY) C 3.1% | P 3.1%
08:30 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (MAY) C 3.5% | P 3.4%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (MAY) C 3.8% | P 3.8%
08:30 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MAY) C 45k | P 32k
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (MAY) C 17.5b | P 15.3b
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) P 15.7b
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation (JUL) C 5.0 | P 7.8
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (JUL) C -22.0 | P -21.1
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) P -20.2
12:00 GBP BOE’s Carney speaks on panel in Paris.
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY) P -12.80b
12:30 USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (JUN) C -0.2% | P -0.3%
12:30 USD Export Price Index (YoY) (JUN) P -0.7%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.5%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.5%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JUN) C 0.3% | P 0.5%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Control Group (JUN) C 0.3% | P 0.5%
13:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.4%
13:15 USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN) C 0.3% | P 0.2%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization (JUN) C 78.1% | P 78.1%
14:00 USD Business Inventories (MAY) C 0.4% | P 0.5%
17:00 USD Powell Speaks at bank of France Dinner in Paris
20:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY) P $46.9B
Harry Hindsight
GBP: Quiet range through the Asian session opening widely and eventually settling down to rise back to Fridays close and the high for the day, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market drifting through the session from those highs just below the 1.2580 areas to test to the 1.2560 level before holding and ranging to the 1.2570 into the London session, London were slow sellers drifting through to the 1.2550 areas before holding through to the NYK session and heading steadily lower through to the 1.2530 level for in the first hour before pausing for a brief period and heading through to the 1.2510 level and basing along that level through to the close.
JPY: Opening a little higher and spiking through to the 108.00 areas before dipping back to the 107.90 level and heading into the Tokyo session testing to the lows around the 107.80 areas basing along the level for a couple of hours before rallying strongly through to the 108.10 level to make the high of the day and holding close to the level through to the London session, slow but steady selling through the early morning session testing through to the low 107.80s before finding a base and then holding in a reasonably tight range through to the close just off those lows.
AUD: Pushing from the opening pushing through the 0.7020 levels and ranging around the level before dipping to the lows into the Tokyo session before rallying strongly with AUDJPY buying helping the move to trade through to the 0.7035 level and ranging quietly through deep into the NYK session holding roughly in the 0.7030-35 areas, and only really pushing slowly towards the end of the session to finish at the highs around the 0.7040 level.
EUR: A quiet start to the day pushing through into the Tokyo session unable to push through the 1.1275 level and drifting off to the 1.1265 area and holding in that range through to the grey hour before slowly rising into the London session to push to the highs of the day and 1.1285 area the range improved a little dipping back to the 1.1270, the move to the NYK session saw the market drifting and the market dipping quickly to the 1.1260 on the opening before holding quietly then dipping slowly through to the 1.1255 level and the lows of the day, the market then held quietly through to the end of the session.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL) A -0.2% | P 0.0%
CNY New Home Prices (MoM) (JUN) A 0.66% | P 0.71%
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) A 6.3% | C 5.2% | P 5.0%
CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 6.0% | C 5.9% | P 6.0%
CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) A 9.8% | C 8.5% | P 8.6%
CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 8.4% | C 8.2% | P 8.1%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (JUN) A 5.1% | P 5.0%
CNY Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) A 1.6% | C 1.5% | P 1.4%
CNY Gross Domestic Product YTD (YoY) (2Q) A 6.3% | C 6.3% | P 6.4%
CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) A 6.2% | C 6.2% | P 6.4%
CNY Property Investment YTD (YoY) (JUN) A 10.9% | P 11.2%
USD Empire Manufacturing (JUL) A 4.3 | C 2.0 | P -8.6
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