Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.239 | EURUSD 1.12103 | AUDUSD 0.70113 | NZDUSD 0.67031 | USDCAD 1.30879 | USDCHF 0.98786 | GBPUSD 1.24074 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.12154 | 1.12076

USDJPY                108.327 | 108.116

GBPUSD              1.24192 | 1.24024

USDCHF               0.98847 | 0.98724

AUDUSD             0.70197 | 0.70036

USDCAD              1.30936 | 1.30678

NZDUSD              0.67159 | 0.66975

EURCHF               1.10791 | 1.10707

EURGBP              0.93780 | 0.90287

EURJPY                121.413 | 121.202

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session for a change with the Cable holding around the opening levels with minor pushes above the 1.2410 level but holding through to the grey hour little changed, congestion around the 1.2400 level with the market likely to find further congestion through to the 1.2350 levels before weak stops are likely to show in any size, the downside continues to see congestion and stronger bids into 1.2300 level, topside offers light back through to the 1.2500 level with weak stops on a move through the level to see congestion likely through the 1.2550 areas and possibly stronger stops on a break through to the 1.2600 levels.
  • JPY: Limited range with a drift from the opening and a push higher for the Tokyo fix to test above the 108.30 areas before dropping back once the demand was met to hold above the 108.10 levels holding around the 108.15 level through to the grey hour, downside bids remain around the 107.80 area and congested around the 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers remain around the 109.00 areas however, they could be a little light and a push through will likely see a quick run to the 109.30 areas and stronger congestion through to 109.60  and building to stronger offers above the 109.80 areas.
  • AUD: Rising steadily from the opening to push to the 0.7020 levels before quickly dropping back to test towards the 70 cents level with a slight bounce for the market to head into the grey hour pushing the opening levels around the 0.7010 area. topside offers likely to be fairly strong into the 0.7040-60 area with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited offers from the 0.7080-0.7120 area and the topside likely to quickly push for the 0.7150 areas on a break, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: A quiet range through the session with the market opening just above the 1.1210 level and dipping slowly through and continuing in that manner before holding and rising a little to the 1.1215 areas for the move into the grey hour, , topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids

 

 

Overnight News

MXN:

Mexico unveils Pemex business plan, but banks underwhelmed

OIL:

Oil falls on Iran tensions easing

USD/JPY:

US, Japan eye possible small trade deal by September

US-Japan working on a deal involving Agriculture, autos – RTRs

GBP:

UK to send a third warship to the Gulf

EUR:

France urges G7 to find international solution on digital taxes

Merkel’s favoured successor to become German defence minister

AUD:

Australia bank regulator faces overhaul after damning review

USD:

Senators press Facebook on trust in hearing on digital currency

Trump says he wants review on Googles ties to China

KRW/JPY:

Korea: Hong urges Japan to withdraw export curbs Yonhap

Korean PM hints at possibility of envoy to Japan over spat – Donga

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUN) A -0.08% | P -0.08%

06:00     EUR        EU 25 New Car Registrations (JUN) P 0.1%

08:30     GBP        CPIH (YoY) (JUN) C 1.9% | P 1.9%

08:30     GBP        Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) C 0.0% | P 0.3%

08:30     GBP        Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) C 2.0% | P 2.0%

08:30     GBP        Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) C 1.8% | P 1.7%

08:30     GBP        Retail Price Index (JUN) C 289.6 | P 289.2

08:30     GBP        Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.3%

08:30     GBP        Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN) C 2.9% | P 3.0%

08:30     GBP        Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JUN) C 2.9% | P 3.0%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) C -0.5% | P 0.0%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) C 0.3% | P 1.3%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.3%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) C 1.7% | P 1.8%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

08:30     GBP        Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) C 1.7% | P 2.0%

08:30     GBP        House Price Index (YoY) (MAY)   Medium C 1.3% | P 1.4%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAY) P -0.8%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) P 3.9%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN F) C 1.1% | P 1.1%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F) C 1.2% | P 1.2%

11:00     USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 12) P -2.4%

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) C -0.3% | P 0.4%

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) C 2.0% | P 2.4%

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index (JUN) C 136.4 | P 136.6

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN) C 1.8% | P 1.8%

12:30     CAD       CPI Core – Median (YoY) (JUN) C 2.1% | P 2.1%

12:30     CAD       CPI Core – Trim (YoY) (JUN) C 2.2% | P 2.3%

12:30     CAD       Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (MAY) C 2.0% | P -0.6%

12:30     USD        Housing Starts (JUN) C 1260k | P 1269k

12:30     USD        Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN) C -0.7% | P -0.9%

12:30     USD        Building Permits (JUN) C 1300k | P 1294k

12:30     USD        Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.3%

14:30     USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 12)  P -9499k

14:30     USD        DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 12) P -1455k

18:00     USD        U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

23:50     JPY         Trade Balance (JUN) C ¥406.0b | P -¥967.1b

23:50     JPY         Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) C -¥140.9b | P -¥609.1b

23:50     JPY         Exports (YoY) (JUN) C -5.4% | P -7.8%

23:50     JPY         Imports (YoY) (JUN) C -0.2% | P -1.5%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session drifting from the early highs just above the 1.2520 levels dipping in midsession to just below the 1.2510 area before holding quietly around the 1.2515 areas through to the London session, with steady USD buying then moving in against the GBP and Euro in particular, the drift lower through to the NYK session saw the Cable pushing through to the 1.2415 level before running into bids with barely a pause on its test through the 1.2450 areas and triggering some weak stops, the move into the NYK session saw the run lower almost over testing lightly through the 1.2435 areas before again dipping to test lightly through the 1.2400 level and basing along the line through to the close unable to push much beyond the 1.2415 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY rose slowly through the Tokyo session having made early lows around the 107.85 area, an early spike to the 108.00 level saw the market quickly back to the 107.90 level again and this time a more concerted run to the London opening to test the 108.10 areas, early London continued probing the level but eventually gave up and dipped back to the 107.90 areas, holding quietly through to NYK before renewing the topside challenge the market quickly pushed to the 108.20 areas and some tight range play around the level before pushing once more too the highs of the day just short of the 108.40 level before drifting from the level into the close.
  • AUD: USD bought in bouts across the day saw the Oz drifting from its initial highs around the 0.7045 level and slowly dipping to the low 0.7035 level before holding quietly through to the London session, the move into the London session again saw the Oz under pressure and a steady drift through to the NYK session testing the 0.7025 level with very little reprieve testing back into the 30’s before again pushing lower through to the 0.7010 and the final run to the close.
  • EUR: As with the Cable a quiet Asian session with the market trading around the opening 1.1260 level making highs into the grey hour to test the 1.1265 area before moving into the London session and a slow drift through to the NYK session falling all the way down to the 1.1210 level to hold deep through into late NYK before pushing towards the 1.1200 areas and recovering to 1.1210 for the move to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.1%

NZD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.5%

AUD       RBA Minutes of July Policy Meeting (JUL)

GBP        Claimant Count Rate (JUN) A 3.2% | P 3.1%

GBP        Jobless Claims Change (JUN) A 38k | P 23.2k | R 24.5k

GBP        Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAY) A 3.4% | C 3.1% | P 3.1% | R 3.2%

GBP        Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (MAY) A 3.6% | C 3.5% | P 3.4%

GBP        ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (MAY) A 3.8% | C 3.8% | P 3.8%

GBP        Employment Change 3M/3M (MAY) A 28k | C 45k | P 32k

EUR        Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (MAY) A 20.2b | C 17.5b | P 15.3b

EUR        Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) A 23.0b | P 15.7b

EUR        German ZEW Survey Current Situation (JUL) A -1.1 | C 5.0 | P 7.8

EUR        German ZEW Survey Expectations (JUL) A -24.5 | C -22.0 | P -21.1

EUR        Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) A -20.3 | P -20.2

GBP        BOE’s Carney speaks on panel in Paris.

CAD       International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY) A 10.2b | P -12.80b

USD        Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (JUN) A -0.4% | C -0.2% | P -0.3%

USD        Export Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A -1.6% | P -0.7% | R -0.8%

USD        Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUN) A 0.4% | C 0.1% | P 0.5% | R 0.4%

USD        Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (JUN) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.5% | R 0.4%

USD        Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JUN) A 0.7% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%

USD        Retail Sales Control Group (JUN) A 0.7% | C 0.3% | P 0.5% | R 0.6%

USD        Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.4%

USD        Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

USD        Capacity Utilization (JUN) A 77.9% | C 78.1% | P 78.1%

USD        Business Inventories (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.5%

USD        Powell Speaks at bank of France Dinner in Paris

USD        Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY) A $3.5b | P $46.9B

 

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.