Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.231 | EURUSD 1.11006 | AUDUSD 0.67776 | NZDUSD 0.64162 | USDCAD 1.33205 | USDCHF 0.9778 | GBPUSD 1.21698 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.11052 | 1.10915

USDJPY                106.549 | 106.221

GBPUSD              1.21748 | 1.2154

USDCHF               0.97928 | 0.97773

AUDUSD             0.67897 | 0.67734

USDCAD              1.33254 | 1.32988

NZDUSD              0.64226 | 0.64075

EURCHF               1.08660 | 1.0854

EURGBP              0.91282 | 0.91168

EURJPY                118.269 | 117.913

For Today

  • GBP: Slowly drifting from the opening just below the 1.2170 level the market held the 1.2160 level and slowly pushed higher through to late in the session setting the high around the 1.2175 level before dropping back gain to test the 1.2155 level as the market approached the grey hour, . Topside offers into the 1.2200 area with weak stops likely once the market clears the 1.2250 area to open the topside through to the 1.2350 area with limited sentimental offers in between, downside bids back through the 1.2080 areas and then continuing through to the 1.2040 levels with strong congestion likely with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.2020-00 area with those bids increasing on any dips, a break through the 12000 is likely to find willing buyers from the lows at the beginning of 2017 with buyers likely to remain.
  • JPY: Opening just above the 106.20 level the market slightly through to the Tokyo opening and then started a stronger push pausing in places but finally pushing through the 106.50 areas before drifting a little as it made its way into the grey hour, Downside bids likely to be weak through to last week’s 105.00 area with strong bids likely to continue through to the 104.80 area before strong stops are likely to appear for a push steadily through into the 103 handle and the ranges from the end of 2016. Topside offers light through to the 107.50 areas with possible sellers still remaining as Japanese continue to reset their investments away from contentious areas a push through the level will likely to see congestion appearing above the level and limited ability to move.
  • AUD: Quiet trading through deep into the Tokyo session before lifting off the low around the 0.6775 area and pushing steadily through to midsession probing just above the 0.6790 level before giving back the gains to move through to London holding the opening levels, Downside bids likely through the 0.6720 level and then increasing as the market moves towards the 0.6680 area with possible strong stops through the  level opening a deeper move with limited congestion around the sentimental areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6820-30 areas before weak stops appear and limited congestion for a move to the 69 cents level and stronger offers.
  • EUR: Ranging around the 1.1100 level over the course of the session the market drifted from the 1.1100 opening level through to just above the 1.1090 area only to recover and make the highs around the 1.1105 level before drifting back to sub 1.11 and holding around the mid 1.1090’s through to London in quiet trading, Downside congestion around the 1.1050 level with stronger bids on a push to the 1.1020-00 areas before limited bids appear through to the 109.80 and stronger stops appearing and minor support through the 1.09 handle. Topside offers through to the 1.1120 area before some weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.1140-60 areas and stronger congestion and increasing offers on any push to the 1.1180 level.

 

Overnight News

OIL:

API reports US crude stockpiles fell 3.45M bbl last week

GBP/EUR:

UK will break off majority of contact with EU in 10 days’ time TEL

EUR/GBP:

EU rebuffs Johnsons Brexit gambit RTRs

USD:

Fed’s Daly says she doesn’t see the US heading into recession BBG

Volcker rule trading revamp approved in win for Wall Street BBG

Trump slams critics, grifting China AFR

A pair of new polls show Trump’s re-election chances sharply dwindling NS1

EUR:

Conte resigns as Italian premier and point a finger at Salvini BBG

CNY/USD:

Huawei founder sees Live or die moment from US uncertainty – BBG

GBP/HKD/CNY:

UK Consulate employee in Hong Kong detained in mainland China

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL) A 0.14% | P -0.08%

NZD       Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL) A 5.0% | P 6.6%

08:30     GBP        Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUL)  P 15.2b

08:30     GBP        Central Government NCR (JUL) P 13.5b

08:30     GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL) C -3.6b | P 6.5b

08:30     GBP        PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUL) C -2.7b | P 7.2b

11:00     USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 16) P 21.7%

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (JUL) C 0.2% | P -0.2%

12:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) C 1.7% | P 2.0%

14:00     USD        Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) C 2.5% | P -1.7%

14:30     USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 16) P 1580k

18:00     USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes (JUL 31)

23:00     AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (AUG P) P 51.6

23:00     AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (AUG P) P 52.3

23:00     AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (AUG P) P 52.1

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session saw the market opening around the 1.2130 areas and holding the 1.2125 level through to the Tokyo session before slowly pushing steadily towards the 1.2140 level and then holding the opening levels through to the London opening before dipping away on Brexit concerns with the expected non/nein reported and the market dipped away through top the 1.2085 levels before holding an old trend line through to the run to NYK, early NYK sold aggressively through the line and tested to the 1.2065 level before starting a recovery pushing initially back to the 1.2100 level then rising quickly just after the NYK option cut to test on a spike to the 1.2180 areas, with Boris Johnson non plussed by the rebut and possibly just ticking boxes, the market dropped back from the highs however, once London left the market space it began a slow steady climb back towards the highs and held around the 1.2170 area through to the close.
  • JPY: Another reasonably quite day for the USDJPY as it consolidates just above the 106 level, opening around the 106.60 areas with some mild gyration around the RBA minutes dipping to the 106.50 and rising to just short of the 106.70 areas before settling into a quiet range through to the London session, steady selling through to the NYK session saw the market basing along the 106.30 area before breaking to the lows just above the 106.15 area before putting in a small rally through the 106.40 area and then drifting off through to the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6765 area the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping to the lows around the 0.6755 area before starting a steady rise through the RBA release testing through to the grey hour pushing to the highs just above the 0.6790 levels, London came in selling and steadily pushed the market back to the 0.6770 area and the market then remained in a tight range through to the close unable to recover the highs. Quiet optimism from the RBA with as long as the global scenario doesn’t get any worse, we’ll be ok being the general consensus.
  • EUR: opening around the 1.1080 level the Euro ranged through to the London session unable to push beyond the 1.1090 area, early London took the market steadily lower and tested the 1.1070 areas before rising to the opening levels for the move through into NYK and a choppy period around the NYK option cut and Brexit squabbles seeing the market pushing off the 1.1065 area and testing through the 1.1090 level, the market struggled higher through the session and eventually posted highs just above the 1.1105 area before drifting only a little to finish the day.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       RBA Minutes of August Policy Meeting (AUG)

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.