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Andy Harrison

For Today
GBP: A slow drift from the opening with the market opening around the 1.2490 level and testing back to the 1.2460 testing through to the grey hour, Downside weakness after a strong move higher on Friday leaves the 1.2400 level vulnerable with very little likely to be hanging around the sentimental level and weak stops below, 1.2350 is likely to be a stronger area and congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2300 level and another cluster of stronger bids in the area however, even here the market is vulnerable to a quick correction, topside offers congested through the 1.2500 level and likely to continue through to 1.2550 level with limited offers through to close to the 1.2600 areas, and stronger bids likely beyond that level.
JPY: Opening some 50 pips away from Fridays closing price the market moved off the lows to push through to the Tokyo opening testing to the 107.90 areas before drifting back into the full session and then dropping to the lows and the 107.50 level before the selling stopped and the market started a slow steady rise through the session pushing to the 107.85 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 108.20 areas with weak stops on a strong move through the level and weak through to the 108.80-109.00 level with weak stops likely close behind, downside bids into the 107.50 level through to 107.40 area before some limited weakness and possibly stronger bids into the 107.00 areas with strong stops likely through to the 106.80 areas and opening a deeper move again.
AUD: Opening lower as the JPY movement dragged on the Oz moving from the 0.6865 level the market filled the gap on the charts in a quick move through to the 0.6835 areas before dropping back in the Tokyo session and then a quiet period around the 0.6870-75 level before rising a little through to the 0.6880 areas into the grey hour. Topside offers through the 0.6880 area still remain and likely to have been refreshed after yesterday’s test, a push above the 0.6920 area is likely to see weak stops opening the market to a test through to the 0.6960 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level, downside bids light through the 68 cents level but running into congestion on the break with a like mix of stops and congestion continuing to stronger bids through the 0.6760-40 level before any weakness is likely to appear.
EUR: Drifting a little from the opening too the 1.1070 level the market rose through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.1085 area before drifting through the balance of the session to the hold the lows into the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0980 area likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test through to the 1.0950 areas and the stronger bids into 1.0920 level, any push beyond could signal a strong push lower over time. Topside offer light through to the 1.1100 areas with strong offers likely and weak stops lurking through the level for a retest to the 1.1150 areas and stronger offers again.

Overnight News
USD/EUR:
Trump poised to hit EU with billions in tariffs after victory in Airbus case Politico
USD:
Trump: US is locked and loaded for potential response to Saudi oil attack HAA
Trump says he has approved release from strategic petroleum reserve if needed APW
Senators urge FCC to review licenses of 2 Chinese Telecom companies – NYT
NZD:
NZ Economists lower 2019-20 GDP growth forecast NZIER BBG
USD/JPY:
US expected to agreed not to hike tariffs on Japan autos BBG
HKD:
Political crisis deepens in Hong Kong as protesters retake streets WSJ
GBP/EUR:
UK PM says he believes he can strike an EU deal within weeks TEL
PM says will leave EU by Oct 31, deal or no deal TEL
Johnson set to defy ban on no deal Brexit and fight on in court – BBG
IRR/USD:
Iran tells US it is ready for fully fledged war TIMES
US says intel points to Iran for Saudi strike – APW
Iran rejects US accusations over Saudi oil facility attacks
JPY:
BoJ is more open to idea of further rate cuts WSJ
AUD:
RBA sees risks in Trump-China deal AFR
SAR:
Saudi oil output cut in half after drones strike Aramco site – BBG

Harry Hindsight

GBP: A quiet Asian session, with the market slipping from the opening around the 1.2340 areas to base along the 1.2330 level through to the grey hour before moving steadily higher to the 1.2350 area, strong buying from the London session saw the market pushing above the 1.2410 level and holding to the point where PM Johnson seems to forced into making a deal or asking for an extension, the market again tested through to the 1.2450 level in a quick rise before ranging above the level through into the NYK session slipping a little towards the London close before rallying again and this time continuing through to the close on a steady push through the 1.2500 level.
JPY: Opening just below the 108.10 areas before pushing through to the 108.20 areas for the move into the Tokyo session, Tokyo made the highs around the 108.25 level saw the market drift off through into the London session holding quietly through to the NYK session around the level in a tight range, a gap higher on the release of the US numbers saw the market back to the 108.10 area and the market trading around that level through to the close in very quiet trading.
AUD: Early selling saw the market test to the 0.6860 level the low for the day before rallying in early Tokyo to push up through to the 0.6875 areas and holding the 0.6870-75 level through to deep into the London session, the move into the NYK session saw a push to the 0.6880 level before dipping quickly on the US release and testing the 0.6865 area before starting a slow rise through to the highs of the day just above the 0.6890 level, the run to the close saw the market dipping back to the 0.6885 areas and ranging quietly to the close.
EUR: Early Slight dip from the opening just below the 1.1070 level and testing lightly into the mid 1.1050 area before recovering and pushing through to the 1.1070 level into the London session, A strong rally from the opening with the Euro steadily pushing through to just short of the 1.1100 area and a choppy move through to the NYK session before quickly dropping back to 1.1080 and then eventually breaking through to test back to the opening levels before narrowing down to hold in the 1.1070-80 areas through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (AUG) A 48.4 | P 48.1
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F) A 0.7% | P 0.7%
USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (AUG) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P 0.0%
USD Export Price Index (YoY) (AUG) A -1.4% | P -0.9%
USD Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (AUG) A 0.4% | C 0.2% | P 0.7% | 0.8%
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (AUG) A 0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.9%
USD Retail Sales Control Group (AUG) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 1.0% | R 0.9%
USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (SEP P) A 92.0 | C 90.8 | P 89.8
USD Business Inventories (JUL) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.0%
USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (SEP 13) A 886 | C 894 | P 898

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