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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: Another quiet session with the Cable slipping from the 1.2430 opening area to test the 1.2410 areas and ranging to the 1.2420 level through to the grey hour, Downside bids likely to be weak through the 1.2400 level and likely to see weak stops on a dip through the level for a run to congestion around the 1.2365 areas and limited congestion likely to continue through to the stronger bids into the 1.2300 area and likely support and stronger stops through the level. Topside offers light through to the 1.2500 areas with stops likely to appear on a push through the 1.2510 areas however, congestion is likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2550 areas and increasing on any move higher.
JPY: Limited range for the day with the market holding quietly around the opening area through into the Tokyo session before moving lower from the 108.15 area to test towards the figure level however, the selling around the fix was short lived and the market bounced higher pushing above the 108.35 areas before dropping quickly back and holding just above the opening level through to the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
AUD: A slight dip to the 0.6860 areas before rising to the 0.6870 level before drifting towards the RBA minutes, the release saw very little change in the tone and the market started a slow test through to the 0.6840 level making the lows just through the 0.6835 area before holding quietly through to the grey hour around the 0.6840 level. Topside offers through the 0.6880 area still remain and likely to have been refreshed after yesterday’s test, a push above the 0.6920 area is likely to see weak stops opening the market to a test through to the 0.6960 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level, downside bids light through the 68 cents level but running into congestion on the break with a like mix of stops and congestion continuing to stronger bids through the 0.6760-40 level before any weakness is likely to appear.
EUR: A very quiet rise through the session with the market moving off the figure level and pushing steadily through to the 1.1010 areas and holding just above the level to the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0980 area likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test through to the 1.0950 areas and the stronger bids into 1.0920 level, any push beyond could signal a strong push lower over time. Topside offer light through to the 1.1100 areas with strong offers likely and weak stops lurking through the level for a retest to the 1.1150 areas and stronger offers again.

Overnight News
USD:
The Trump economy’s new threat: A middle eastern meltdown Politico
A slowdown in US business formation poses a risk to economy APW
SAR:
Weapons used to attack oil facilities were Iranian WPT
USD/IRR:
US strike on Iran could bring tangle of escalation risks AXS
Trump ups Iran warnings, says its looking like they hit Saudis – AFR
GBP/EUR:
How Boris Johnson took his begging bowl to the EU and Luxembourg laughed in his face TEL
Noise but no breakthrough as Johnson, Juncker talk Brexit APW
Bettel says endless Brexit delays would be nightmare
EUR:
Germany fights to limit EU spending in long term budget Politico
NZD:
NZ 31 Consumer confidence falls to 7 year low BBG
HKD:
Moody’s downgrades Hong Kong outlook to negative as protests continue
USD/JPY:
Trump says US has reached an initial trade agreement regarding tariff barriers with Japan White House
Trump says intends to enter into an agreement with Japan in the coming weeks
AUD:
RBA: Upward trend in wages growth appears to have stalled
RBA: Reiterates it would ease monetary policy further if needed

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence (3Q) A 103.1 | P 103.5
AUD RBA Minutes of Sept. Policy Meeting
CNY New Home Prices (MoM) (AUG) A 0.58% | P 0.59%
09:00 EUR EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Sep) C -37.0 | P -44.1
09:00 EUR EURZEW Survey – Current Situation (Sep) C -15.0 | P -13.5
09:00 EUR EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Sep) C -32.2 | P -43.6
13:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) C 0.2% | P 0.2%
17:10 EUR ECB’s CÅ“urÃ© speech
23:50 JPY Imports (YoY) (Aug) C -11.2% | P -1.2%
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Aug) C Â¥-355.9B | P Â¥-250.7B
23:50 JPY Exports (YoY) (Aug) C -10.9% | P -1.5%

Harry Hindsight

GBP: A steady drop back from the opening levels just above the 1.2500 level holding just below the level through into the Tokyo session, a limited push above the figure level before setting through to the grey hour holding the 1.2470 areas, a light push in the grey hour before again drifting back through to the 1.2430 areas in early trading before ranging around the 1.2450 level through into the NYK session, mooted commentary from Luxembourg as BoJo attempts to negotiate a deal saw the market drop quickly back to the 1.2400 level as a â€œno deal Brexitâ€ returns to the forefront of the markets gaze, the market rose a little and held to the close in the 1.2425-30 levels.
JPY: Pushing off a low opening after the weekends reports from Saudi Arabia the market opening some 50 pips off the closing price on Friday the market pushed early to take back half those loses into the Tokyo session, early Tokyo saw a renewed push to make the lows of the day testing the 107.50 level before steadily rising through into early London to the 107.90 levels, some selling saw the market falling back to the 107.70 areas and holding in a tight range around the level through to the NYK session before renewing the markets rise through to the close as down time in Saudi seems to be shorter than expected with the market recovering all the loses of the day and holding to the close just above the 108.00 area.
AUD: Opening 10 pips lower from Fridays close the market quickly recovered on the Tokyo opening making the early highs for the day around the 0.6880 areas and ranging through to the London session testing through the 0.6870 levels but never with any conviction, London repeated the early movements testing again towards the highs before slipping slowly back through to deep in the NYK session to test towards the 0.6850 level before ranging quietly between the 0.6860-70 to the close.
EUR: Very little reaction for the Euro on the opening saw the market holding the 1.1075 areas before rising a little to the 1.1085 in early Tokyo session before drifting quietly through the session and into London, early London saw the market start a deep steady decline through deep into the NYK session bottoming out just through the 1.1000 level and then basing around that level through to the close as the Euro economy comes under the microscope.

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