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Andy Harrison

For Today
GBP: A slow Asian session as you would expect with FOMC to come later today, making the early high in Tokyo testing the 1.2505 areas before starting a steady drift through to the 1.2485 level, Downside bids likely to be weak through the 1.2400 level and likely to see weak stops on a dip through the level for a run to congestion around the 1.2365 areas and limited congestion likely to continue through to the stronger bids into the 1.2300 area and likely support and stronger stops through the level. Topside offers light through to the 1.2500 areas with stops likely to appear on a push through the 1.2510 areas however, congestion is likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2550 areas and increasing on any move higher.
JPY: Drifting into the Tokyo session holding the 108.10 area the market saw limited buying into the Tokyo fix and starting a slow steady rise through to the 108.25 areas before dipping back and holding through to the grey hour around the 108.20 area, Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
AUD: A slow steady drift through the session with the market making the highs just into the Tokyo opening and the 0.6870 just to far, Tokyo fix saw the Oz dipping slowly and the drift lower then continued through the session pushing lightly through to the 0.6845 areas for the move into the grey hour. Topside offers through the 0.6880 area still remain and likely to have been refreshed after yesterday’s test, a push above the 0.6920 area is likely to see weak stops opening the market to a test through to the 0.6960 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level, downside bids light through the 68 cents level but running into congestion on the break with a like mix of stops and congestion continuing to stronger bids through the 0.6760-40 level before any weakness is likely to appear.
EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with a slight drift from the early highs set in the Tokyo fix just above the 1.1075 level before pushing through to the 1.1065 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0980 area likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test through to the 1.0950 areas and the stronger bids into 1.0920 level, any push beyond could signal a strong push lower over time. Topside offer light through to the 1.1100 areas with strong offers likely and weak stops lurking through the level for a retest to the 1.1150 areas and stronger offers again.

Overnight News
USD/IRR:
Trump admin weighing retaliatory action against Iran after Saudi attack
USD/SAR:
US tells Saudii Arabia oil attacks were launched from Iran DJ
Pentagon readying a public show of evidence in Saudi attacks
USD:
Kudlow faults negative interest rates, contradicting Trump BBG
The Fed decided it didn’t want to hike rates today – BBG
AUD:
ACCC to seek approval for another inquiry into banks BBG
World bank chief Malpass sees steeper global growth slowdown BBG
RBA likely to be swept up in global easing – DJ
CNY:
Chinese companies dump us other foreign assets become net sellers overseas for first time – BLG
RUB:
Explosion at Russian research facility that houses live smallpox virus NPW
EUR:
ECB’s Villeroy sees no reason to change inflation target BBG
Villeroy: Germany, Netherlands should use fiscal leeway now BBG
Villeroy: Essential for Euro members to use fiscal leeway BBG
Villeroy: Must be ready for risks of no deal Brexit BBG
NZD:
Peters expects bad news on NZ economy AGN
USD/CNY:
Trade talks; US DoJ announces two new China related cases Sinocism
OIL:
API reports US, Crude stockpiles rose 592k BBL last week BBG
NOK/EUR:
Giant Nordic pension fund cries foul over ECB discrimination – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Imports (YoY) (Aug) A -12.0% | C -11.2% | P -1.2%
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Aug) A -Â¥136.3b | C Â¥-355.9B | P Â¥-250.7B
JPY Exports (YoY) (Aug) A -8.2% | C -10.9% | P -1.5%
AUD Westpac leading index MoM A -0.28% | C 0.15%
0930 GBP Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) C 1.9% | P 2.1%
0930 GBP Core Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) C 1.8% | P 1.9%
0930 GBP CPIH YoY (AUG) C 1.9% | P 2.0%
0930 GBP Consumer Price Index MoM (AUG) C 0.5% | P 0.0%
0930 GBP House Price Index YoY (JUL) C 0.6% | P 0.9%
0930 GBP Retail Price Index MoM (AUG) C 0.7% | P 0.0%
1000 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index MoM (AUG) C 0.2% | P -0.5%
1000 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) F C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1000 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index core YoY (AUG) F C 0.9% | P 0.9%
1200 USD MBA Mortgage applications (SEP 13) P 2.0%
1330 CAD Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) C 1.9% | P 2.0%
1330 CAD Consumer Price Index NSA MoM (AUG) C -0.2% | 0.5%
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (AUG) C -1.3% | P 8.4%
1330 USD Housing starts MoM (AUG) C 5.0% | P -4.0%
1530 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 13) C -2192k | P -6912k
1900 USD FOMC Rate decision (Lower Bound) (SEP 18) C 1.75% | P 2.0%
1900 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (SEP 18) C 2.0% | P 2.25%
1900 USD Interest rate on excess reserves (SEP 19) C 1.85% | P 2.1%
1930 USD Powell holds post FOMC meeting press conference
2345 NZD Gross Domestic Product YoY (2Q) C 2.0% | P 2.5%
2345 NZD Gross Domestic Product sa QoQ (2Q) C 0.4% | P 0.65

Harry Hindsight

GBP: A steady drift through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.2425 level and slowly testing through the figure level in early London and holding for several hours around the area until it approached the NYK session where USD sellers moved in, with several political consideration materialising apart from the US-China trade war, the foremost being Iran, rising through to the 1.2450 level the market saw an up beat on the move through and trading quickly through to the 1.2490 level before slowing but not stopping its rise testing steadily to the 1.2525 level before coming to a stop and slipping back to range around the figure through to the close.
JPY: Opening around the 108.15 area the market saw some choppy periods through the day but struggled to break out of the 108.00-35 areas with any convictions, holding just above the 108.10 level through to the Tokyo fix where the market saw limited fix supply and dipped through to approach the 108.00 level before holding and pushing quickly higher again, the run higher saw some weak stops triggered and the market spiking through to the high of the day testing to the 108.35 areas before dropping back again, then basing through the day on the 108.10 level with minor pushes through to the 108.30 areas before finishing the day almost unchanged.
AUD: Opening towards the highs the market drifted from the start of the Tokyo session testing the 0.6870 level before steadily holding the 0.6860 level to the RBA minutes and while there was very little difference with the tone on the minutes and the market moved through to the 0.6840 areas, the market moved through to the London session drifted through the 0.6830 areas and held through the London session ranging around the 0.6840 levels before moving into the NYK session and rising quickly back to the opening levels for the run to the close.
EUR: A slow rise through the Asian session opening around the 1.1000 level pushing through to the grey hour testing the 1.1010 levels dipping into the London opening testing the 1.0990 level before quickly pushing back through the 1.1020 level, while some in the market a calling the then rally a short squeeze I would prefer to think of it as a round of USD selling and the movement in most of the pairs would tend to lean that way as the Euro steadily rose through to the 1.1075 level before running into the replaced 1.1080-1.1100 offers to slow the market and a quiet run to the close holding the 1.1075 areas.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence (3Q) A 103.1 | P 103.5
AUD RBA Minutes of Sept. Policy Meeting
CNY New Home Prices (MoM) (AUG) A 0.58% | P 0.59%
EUR EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Sep) A -22.5 | C -37.0 | P -44.1
EUR EURZEW Survey – Current Situation (Sep) A -19.9 | C -15.0 | P -13.5
EUR EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Sep) A -22.4 | C -32.2 | P -43.6
USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) A 0.6% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
EUR ECB’s CÅ“urÃ© speech

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