Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.041 | EURUSD 1.10406| AUDUSD 0.67925 | NZDUSD 0.63028 | USDCAD 1.3266 | USDCHF 0.99291 | GBPUSD 1.25251 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10596 | 1.10398

USDJPY                108.085 | 107.802

GBPUSD              1.25598 | 1.25184

USDCHF               0.99338 | 0.9908

AUDUSD             0.67982 | 0.67787

USDCAD              1.32733 | 1.32556

NZDUSD              0.63130 | 0.62858

EURCHF               1.09668 | 109559

EURGBP              0.88244 | 0.88051

EURJPY                119.375 | 119.237

 

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session with a slight dip through to the 1.2520 level into the Tokyo opening and then holding for several hours with a minor move through the level before starting a slow steady climb as the market pushed through the Tokyo session rising to the 1.2550 level for the move into the London session, Topside congested through to the 1.2580 level with offers likely around the 1.2600 areas before some weak stops appear, any further move higher will likely have to breach the 1.2630 level with possible stronger offers and then congestion through the level however, there could be weak stops on a push beyond the 1.2650 level and the market then quickly testing towards the 1.2700 area, downside bids congested on a break through the 1.2500 level again and however, any push through the 1.2450 level is likely to see stronger sellers pushing for the weak 1.2400 area and possible stops.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened a little lower and while it recovered to the 108.00 areas the market struggled through into the Tokyo session unable to push back through the 108.10 level and then once the fix was over with the market drifted through to hold for a long period around the 107.90 level, the move to the grey hour saw the market testing through the 107.90 level. Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
  • AUD: Rising a little from the opening the market tested lower again into the Tokyo session to test the 0.6780 level before holding and steadily pushing through to the 68 cents level for the move into the London session in quiet trading. Topside offers through the 0.6880 area still remain and likely to have been refreshed after yesterday’s test, a push above the 0.6920 area is likely to see weak stops opening the market to a test through to the 0.6960 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level, downside bids light through the 0.6780 level but running into congestion on the break with a like mix of stops and congestion continuing to stronger bids through the 0.6760-40 level before any weakness is likely to appear.
  • EUR: The market moved into the Tokyo session holding the 1.1040 opening levels and then started a slow rise through to the 1.1060 level and held just below the level through into the London session, Downside bids light through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0980 area  likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test through to the 1.0950 areas and the stronger bids into 1.0920 level, any push beyond could signal a strong push lower over time. Topside offer light through to the 1.1100 areas with strong offers likely and weak stops lurking through the level for a retest to the 1.1150 areas and stronger offers again.

 

Overnight News

EUR/GBP:

Junker reports that a deal is possible without the backstop and is steadily moving towards it

CNY:

China cuts slightly its new one-year lending benchmark rate

JPY:

Aso says monetary policy up to the BoJ to decide

EUR:

Lagarde urges policymakers to resolve manmade economic threats

Global growth fragile, under threat Lagarde

Austrian parliament votes to oppose EU – Mercosur pact

USD/SAR/IRR:

Pompeo favours peaceful resolution to crisis after Saudi attack

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         National Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%

JPY         Japan Aug CPI A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%

JPY         National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food YoY AUG A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%

JPY         BoJ releases 21 Money Flow

NZD       Credit Card Spending YoY AUG A 6.0% | P 5.1%

1330       CAD       Retail Sales MoM (JUL) C 0.6% | P 0.0%

1500       EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence (SEP A) C -7.0 | P -7.1

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A small drift from the opening around the 1.2480 area testing lightly through to the 1.2460 areas before slowly recovering through to the grey hour, early London again tested the lows before forcing steadily through to the 1.2500 level with reasonably robust retail sales, the market dipped after the early numbers sending the market through to the 1.2450 level in steady selling before heading into the NYK session lifting from the Bo£ announcement and pushing back to above the opening levels, Junkers comments saw the Cable leap higher with talk of a Brexit deal close at hand without the backstop, Cable tested to the 1.2560 areas before drifting back to the close around the 1.2530 areas.
  • JPY: Opening on its highs saw the market test towards the 108.50 level before dropping quickly into the Tokyo session after limited data to push through to the 108.10 level on the first move and then again breaking lower after holding for a couple of hours, the second move saw the market dropping through to the 107.80 level before starting a slow rise through to the 108.10 level into the London session before rejecting the level and then drifting through to the close holding in a tight band around the 108.00 level.
  • AUD: As with the USDJPY the market held around the 0.6830 level from the opening and into early Tokyo before dropping back quickly as the AUDJPY was impacted by the selling testing through to the 0.6790 areas and holding quietly through to the London session with early London testing to the 0.6780 level before rising in steady waves through to late in the session to top just short of the 0.6810 area before drifting to the close holding the 0.6790 area.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1030 level the market drifted into the Tokyo session pushing to the lows around the 1.1025 area and starting a slow climb through to the London session testing through to the 1.1040 level pausing and then continuing on a strong move to the 1.1060 where the market slowed its ascent but did manage to hit just above the 1.1070 level before reversing on the move through mid-NYK and holding in a slightly choppy end just above the 1.1040 areas.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Gross Domestic Product YoY (2Q) A 2.1% | C 2.0% | P 2.5%

NZD       Gross Domestic Product sa QoQ (2Q) A 0.5% | C 0.4% | P 0.65

AUD       Employment change A 31.7k | C 15k | P 36.4

AUD       Unemployment rate A 5.3% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%

AUD       Full time employment change (AUG) A -15.5k | P 32k

JPY         BoJ 10yr Yield Target (SEP 19) A 0.000% | C 0.000% | P 0.000%

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision (SEP 19) A -0.100% | C -0.100% | P -0.100%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index MoM (JUL) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P -0.8%

CHF        SNB Policy Rate (SEP 19) A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%

CHF        SNB Sight Deposit Interest rate (SEP 19) A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%

GBP        GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY (AUG) A 2.2% | C 2.3% | P 2.9%

GBP        BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP) A 435B | C 435B | P 435B

GBP       BoE Rate A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.75%

USD       Continuing claims (SEP7) A 1661k | C 1672k | P 1670k

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 208k | C 214k | P 204k

USD       Philadelphia Fed business outlook (SEP) A 12 | C 10.5 | P 16.8

USD       Existing Home Sales MoM (AUG) A 1.3% | C -0.7% | P 2.5%

USD       Leading index (AUG) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P 0.5%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.