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Andy Harrison

For Today
GBP: A quiet opening if somewhat wide saw the market unchanged from Friday and holding quietly deep into the Asian session before slowly rising through to the 1.2490 areas, before drifting a little off for the move into the grey hour, Topside congested through to the 1.2580 level with offers likely around the 1.2600 areas before some weak stops appear, any further move higher will likely have to breach the 1.2630 level with possible stronger offers and then congestion through the level however, there could be weak stops on a push beyond the 1.2650 level and the market then quickly testing towards the 1.2700 area, downside bids congested any push through the 1.2450 level is likely to see stronger sellers pushing for the weak 1.2400 area and possible stops.
JPY: Bank holiday Tokyo saw the Market opening some 15-20 pips above Fridays close and then dipping to attempt to fill the gap towards the 107.60 level before rising and then holding in an ever decreasing range around the 107.70 level in quiet trading to the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
AUD: A slow rise through the session with the AUD slightly stronger from the opening and a push through to the 0.6780 level before holding quietly through to the grey hour around the level, Topside offers through the 0.6880 area still remain and likely to have been refreshed after yesterday’s test, a push above the 0.6920 area is likely to see weak stops opening the market to a test through to the 0.6960 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level, downside bids light through the 0.6780 level but running into congestion on the break with a like mix of stops and congestion continuing to stronger bids through the 0.6760-40 level before any weakness is likely to appear.
EUR: Unchanged from Fridays close the market saw the market holding around those opening levels for the most part with a steady climb through to the 1.1025 level to make the highs in a very quiet session for the Euro and moving to the London session unchanged and holding around the 1.1020 level. Downside bids light through the 1.1000 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0980 area likely to see weak stops and the market opening to a test through to the 1.0950 areas and the stronger bids into 1.0920 level, any push beyond could signal a strong push lower over time. Topside offer light through to the 1.1100 areas with strong offers likely and weak stops lurking through the level for a retest to the 1.1150 areas and stronger offers again.

Overnight News
CNY:
The coming crisis of China’s one-party regime PS
China scraps US farm tour, stoking pessimism on trade deal – BBG
Yuan gains after report China farm pull out wasn’t trade related – BBG
GBP:
3rd Lead British Government plays down bailout chances for Thomas Cook DPA
Thomas Cook edges closer to collapse on debt talks impasse – BBG
SAR/OIL:
Aramco’s repairs could take months longer than company anticipates; contractors say DJ
EUR/GBP:
Juncker says he is convinced Brexit will happen but if there’s no deal it will mean a hard border in Northern Ireland DML
YER/SAR/IRR:
Yemeni rebels warn Iran plans another strike soon WSJ
IMF/NZD:
IMF says downside risks to NZ economy have increased
USD:
Veteran US expert wans on big four mortgage risk AFR
Trump’s next trade feud has parcels from China in its sights BBG
Chinese theft of trade secrets on the rise, the US Justice Department warns – CNBC
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe this week will signal an October rate cut say’s NAB – AFR

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (SEP P) A 51.9 | P 49.3
AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) A 49.4 | P 50.9
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (SEP P) A 52.5 | P 49.1
0830 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P) C 54.3 | P 54.8
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P) C 51.5 | P 51.7
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) C 44 | P 43.5
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (SEP P) C 52 | 51.9
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) C 47.3 | P 47
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (SEP P) C 53.2 | P 53.5
1400 EUR ECB Mario Draghi testifies at European Parliament
1445 USD Markit US Composite PMI (SEP P) P 50.7
1445 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) C 50.3 | P 50.3
1445 USD Markit US Services PMI (SEP P) C 51.4 | 50.7

Harry Hindsight

GBP: Opening around the 1.2530 level the Asian session held around the 1.2520 level deep into the Tokyo session before steadily rising through to test the 1.2550 area but unable to break through until the market moved into the grey hour where early London took the market quickly through to the 1.2565 areas before pausing and running through to the 1.2580 level the market then spent a short period attempting to push further but failed to gain any further movement higher and started to slip back and the drop through the 1.2550 level accelerated through to the opening levels, the market slowed its ascent but not the direction and the move through into the NYK session saw the lows traded around the 1.2460 level as early optimism on a Brexit deal was then squashed as another EU President spoke, the move through to the close saw a minor rally to the 1.2500 level but finished the day just off the lows holding around the 1.2470 areas.
JPY: Moving off the opening lows just below the 108.00 the move to the Tokyo fix was a quiet affair holding around the 108.05 level and then quickly rising through towards the 108.10 level for the fix before dropping quickly lower and then drifting through to the grey hour testing the 107.90 level, the move into the London session saw a brief test of the 107.80 level before bouncing back and a steady rise through to the 108.00 level and holding around the level deep through the NYK session and drifting once the London session left, the move back through the 107.80 areas saw weak stops appearing and the market testing through to the 107.60 level gradually pushing through to finish the dead just off the lows around the 107.52 level.
AUD: Holding quietly around the 0.6795 areas through into the Tokyo session saw the Oz dropping back steadily with the move in the USDJPY after the fix, the AUD dipped through to the 0.6780 level and held the level pushing steadily off the area and trading steadily through into the London session testing towards the 0.6810 level to make the highs for the day before drifting back to the opening level for the move into the NYK session and a steady drift through to the close testing the 0.6760 level and finishing the day just above that low.
EUR: Pattern wise not much different to other charts with JPY dominating the crosses through the Asian session and for the Euro after a quiet start a steady rise through from the 1.1040 areas to test into the grey hour pushing the 1.1060 level, early London saw some buying and the high made just beyond the 1.1065 areas before moving through to the NYK session holding around the 1.1050 level and drifting, the market saw the Euro steadily dropping back to the London close testing the 1.1000 areas before rising slowly for the close around the 1.1020 areas.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY National Consumer Price Index YoY (AUG) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
JPY Japan Aug CPI A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food YoY AUG A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%
JPY BoJ releases 21 Money Flow
NZD Credit Card Spending YoY AUG A 6.0% | P 5.1%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (JUL) A 0.4% | C 0.6% | P 0.0%
EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (SEP A) A -6.5 | C -7.0 | P -7.1

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