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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: Another quiet Asian session with the Cable rising a little from the opening levels around the 1.2430 and testing nearly to the 1.2440 level before drifting back to hold just above the 1.2425 areas, Topside congested through to the 1.2580 level with offers likely around the 1.2600 areas before some weak stops appear, any further move higher will likely have to breach the 1.2630 level with possible stronger offers and then congestion through the level however, there could be weak stops on a push beyond the 1.2650 level and the market then quickly testing towards the 1.2700 area, downside bids congested any push through the 1.2450 level is likely to see stronger sellers pushing for the weak 1.2400 area and possible stops through the level but congested through to the 1.2350 areas.
JPY: Dipping in early trading back to the 107.50 areas before rising quickly into the Tokyo session to test to the 107.70 area and holding close to the level for several hours before starting a slow but steady drift back to the lows, Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
AUD: Opening a little higher and pushing through towards 0.6780 area and the high for the day, the market held through to the Tokyo session again testing towards the highs before dropping back once the Tokyo fix was over and quickly pushing for the 0.6765 area and the lows from yesterday, Topside offers through the 0.6800 level likely to be light with weak stops on a push through the 0.6825 area however, stronger congestion likely on a push through the 0.6850 areas and increasing on any move towards the 69 cents levels, downside bids into the 0.6760-40 areas with light congestion then appearing through to the 0.6720 areas and stronger bids from there to the 0.6680 level where stronger stops are likely.
EUR: A slow session around the 1.0990 areas drifting from the early highs just below the 1.1000 level and lightly testing through the 1.0990 areas and holding around the level through to the London session, Downside bids into the 1.0960-40 levels with some weakness below there before increasing bids into the 1.0920-00 areas and possibly continuing through to the 1.0880 level before weak stops and possibly joined by stronger break out stops appearing, Topside offers light through to the 1.1020 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the 1.1030 area opening up a short squeeze through to the 1.1050 level and increasing offers into the 1.1080-1.1100 level.

Overnight News
NZD:
Robertson, Peters agree that NZD decline helps exporters BBG
RBNZ rate cut fails to increase investment appetite Survey – BBG
USD/JPY:
Trump’s trade deal with Japan hits snag amid auto tariff fears WPT
AUD/CNY:
PM push to wind back China’s trade benefits
GBP:
Johnson: UK to roll out red carpet to US firms post Brexit RTRS
Johnson to tell US and Canadian business leaders post Brexit Britain will roll out red carpet for investors RTRS
Johnson to say UK will devise better regulation for sectors in which the UK leads the world RTRS
Johnson to say he wants a market that is open to the world with the most competitive tax rates in the hemisphere RTRS
Johnson so say UK will take advantage of post Brexit freedoms including new tax allowances for investment
Johnson to say he wants to make Britain the best place in the world to start, run and build a business
EUR:
Draghi: ECB ready to cut rates further DJ
USD:
Tim to worry about corporate debt again WSJ
CNY:
China’s railway spending plummets as Beijing struggles to sustain SCMP
China Central bank says China’s interest rate levels appropriate
CCB: China has ample monetary policy tools, relatively big policy room
CCB: Risks from shadow banking and key institutions have been steadily resolved
EUR/GBP:
Donald Tusk says no breakthrough on Brexit after meeting PM Johnson SKY
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe faces lonely rate cut route as fiscal road blocked – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) A 48.9 | 49.3
0630 JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speech in Osaka
0900 EUR German IFO Business climate (SEP) C 94.5 | 94.3
0900 EUR German IFO Current Assessment (SEP) C 97 | 97.3
0900 EUR German IFO Expectations (SEP) C 92 | P 91.3
0930 GBP Central Government NCR (AUG) P -8.1B
0930 GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (AUG) C 7.1B | P -1.3B
0930 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (AUG) P -13.5B
0930 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) C 6.6B | P -2.0B
1055 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Gives speech in Armidale
1200 MXN Bi-Weekly CPI (SEP15) C 0.2% | P 0.05%
1200 MXN Bi-Weekly CPI (YoY) (SEP15) C 3.02% | P 3.04%
1400 USD House Price Index (MoM) C 0.3% | P 0.2%
1400 USD S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA (JUL) C 0.1% | P 0.04%
1400 USD S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) C 2.15% | P 2.13%
1400 USD S&P/Case Shiller- US Home Price Index (YoY) (JUL) P 3.13%
1500 USD Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) C 133.0 | P 135.1
1500 USD Conf. Board Present Situation (SEP) P 177.2
2345 NZD Trade Balance (AUG) C -1350M | P -685M
2345 NZD Trade Balance 12Mth YTD (AUG) C -5400M | P -5463M

Harry Hindsight

GBP: Opening unchanged the market slowly dipped through to the 1.2465 areas before starting a steady rise with a quick spike through to the 1.2490 level and then slowly pushing through the high late into the session before dipping through to the 1.2450 area into the London session, with some limited movement in the first hour the market dropped after a small recovery testing to the 1.2425 area before ranging through to the close around the 1.2435 level with a narrowing range as the day continued initially pushing back through the 1.2450 areas and then steadily pushing into the NYK session testing lightly below the 1.2415 level before ending around the 1.2435 level.
JPY: Opening around 20 pips higher the market traded around the 107.70 areas through into the London session testing to just above the 107.75 areas before dropping back quickly to fill the gap and pausing only slightly before trading through to the 107.30 level, the market then traded in a ever decreasing ranged through into the NYK Session and the close holding around the 107.50 areas.
AUD: The Oz pushed from a slightly higher opening spiking to the 0.6770 level before renewing its rally in a more sedately manner to push steadily through to the 0.6780 areas and holding through into the grey hour, steady selling saw the London market pushing the market back to the opening levels before ranging around the 0.6770 level through to late in the session in NYK and the SYD market moving in to push to the close around the 0.6775 area.
EUR: A quiet and steady rise through the Asian session opening just below the 1.1020 level and then steadily pushing through to the highs just above the 1.1025 area before holding through into the London session before poor European numbers saw the market dropping quickly through the 1.1000 and triggering stops on the way didn’t stop until into the mid 1.0960’s before holding, a further test of the level before slowly pushing towards the 1.1000 level into the London close and a slow range around the 1.0990 area to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (SEP P) A 51.9 | P 49.3
AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) A 49.4 | P 50.9
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (SEP P) A 52.5 | P 49.1
EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P) A 52.5 | C 54.3 | P 54.8
EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P) A 49.1 | C 51.5 | P 51.7
EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) A 41.4 | C 44 | P 43.5
EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (SEP P) A 50.4 | C 52 | 51.9
EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) A 45.6 | C 47.3 | P 47
EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (SEP P) A 52 | C 53.2 | P 53.5
EUR ECB Mario Draghi testifies at European Parliament
USD Markit US Composite PMI (SEP P) A 51 | P 50.7
USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) A 51 | C 50.3 | P 50.3
USD Markit US Services PMI (SEP P) A 50.9 | C 51.4 | 50.7

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