Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.085 | EURUSD 1.10202 | AUDUSD 0.68003 | NZDUSD 0.63294 | USDCAD 1.3242 | USDCHF 0.98548 | GBPUSD 1.24935 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10299 | 1.09982

USDJPY                107.430 | 107.005

GBPUSD              1.25063 | 1.24625

USDCHF               0.98738 | 0.98543

AUDUSD             0.68037 | 0.67796

USDCAD              1.32596 | 1.32371

NZDUSD              0.63486 | 0.63051

EURCHF               1.08665 | 1.08559

EURGBP              0.88264 | 0.88185

EURJPY                118.161 | 117.797

 

For Today

  • GBP: Spiking on the opening through the 1.2500 level the market soon settled back to a tight range around the 1.2490 level through into Tokyo, a steady supply saw the market drifting through the session pushing gradually through to hold just above the 1.2460 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside congested through to the 1.2580 level with offers likely around the 1.2600 areas before some weak stops appear, any further move higher will likely have to breach the 1.2630 level with possible stronger offers and then congestion through the level however, there could be weak stops on a push beyond the 1.2650 level and the market then quickly testing towards the 1.2700 area, downside bids congested any push through the 1.2450 level is likely to see stronger sellers pushing for the weak 1.2400 area and possible stops through the level but congested through to the 1.2350 areas.
  • JPY: Opening just above the 107.00 level the market saw steady demand for the USD and the market moving through to test the 107.20 area early in Tokyo until fixing supply appeared forcing the market back to the starting level again and then rising steadily to briefly pass through the 107.40 area and a quiet range then just above the 107.30 through to the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 108.60 level before some weakness appears however, stronger offers are likely to appear on any test through towards the 109.00 level with possibly strong offers likely from the 109.40 level onwards. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with some limited congestion along the way and strong bids through to the 106.80 areas and likely strong congestion on any move lower and increasing from the 106.50 areas.
  • AUD: No change for the Kiwi’s saw the market holding the 68 cents level through into the Tokyo session before USD buyers started to move in pressing the Oz steadily lower holding initially around the 0.6790 level and after a brief respite back above the figure level renewing the selling in Oz through to the 0.6780 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.6800 level likely to be light with weak stops on a push through the 0.6825 area however, stronger congestion likely on a push through the 0.6850 areas and increasing on any move towards the 69 cents levels, downside bids into the 0.6760-40 areas with light congestion then appearing through to the 0.6720 areas and stronger bids from there to the 0.6680 level where stronger stops are likely.
    EUR: USD day as they say with early buyers sending the Euro slowly testing through the 1.1000 level from the opening around the 1.1020 areas, Downside bids into the 1.0960-40 levels with some weakness below there before increasing bids into the 1.0920-00 areas and possibly continuing through to the 1.0880 level before weak stops and possibly joined by stronger break out stops appearing, Topside offers light through to the 1.1020 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the 1.1030 area opening up a short squeeze through to the 1.1050 level and increasing offers into the 1.1080-1.1100 level.

 

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China’s Wang Yi Says for US to revert to a containment policy toward China is a wrong idea that cannot possibly work -RTRS

Wang Yi: US and China need to take bilateral relationship forward with wisdom and conviction – RTRS

Wang Yi: China’s Top diplomat Wang Li says US-China relations have come to a crossroads RTRS

Wang Yi: Mutually beneficial cooperation is the only right option for China and the US RTRS

Wang Yi: US and China both have benefitted from Cooperation over past 40 years RTRS

Wang Yi: Higher tariffs have reduced competitiveness of US firms, farmers and manufacturers have felt mounting pressures RTRS

Wang Yi: Neither US nor China can move ahead without the other, opening up and integration RTRS

Wang Yi: Decoupling of US, Chinese economy is neither sensible nor realistic

Wang Yi: Decoupling from Chinese economy is decoupling from opportunities and the future RTRS

Wang Yi: China is accelerating structural reforms by abolishing some investment quotas RTRS

Wang Yi: Foreign investment law will enter in force next year foster more equitable business environment RTRS

Wang Yi: Expects US to open up and remove all unreasonable restrictions RTRS

Wang Yi: It is natural for US and China to have disagreements and frictions, what matters is to handle them properly RTRS

US seeking to colonise China’s economy with trade deal, says Veteran economic Policy maker Li Deshui SCMP

China’s Banks see another key source of funding at risk – BBG

OIL:

API reports US crude stockpiles rose 1.38m BBL last week BBG

USD:

Banks flood the FED with demand for two-week loans WSJ

President Trump’s China trade rhetoric turns harsh at UN Success Farming

The FED has put the economy into a more dangerous position, Fed’s Kashkari says – WPT

USD/CNY:

Trump calls out China in UN speech, Politburo calls for more patriotic education

China preparing to buy more US pork as trade talks revive BBG

China says has no intention to play Game of Thrones but won’t be threatened on trade – HAA

SAR/IRR/USD:

US patience with Iran not inexhaustible, warns Saudi Arabia GUA

AUD:

RBA poised for third rate cut as global easing wave, trade risks show no signs of abating DJ

RBA’s Lowe says monetary policy less effective – AFR

GBP:

UK Minister Rees-Mogg attacked supreme court judgement as a Coup BBG

Rees-Mogg told cabinet judges were overthrowing constitution BBG

USD/EUR:

US considers way to heighten Airbus tariff pain for the EU BBG

NZD:

RBNZ holds rates at 1.00%

JPY:

BoJ’s Masai offers new reason for sitting tight amid easing talk – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Trade Balance (AUG) A -1565M | C -1350M | P -685M

NZD       Trade Balance 12Mth YTD (AUG) A -5484M | C -5400M | P -5463M

JPY         BoJ Minutes of July Policy meeting

NZD       RBNZ Official cash rate (SEP 25) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%

0700       EUR        German GfK Consumer Confidence C 9.6 | P 9.7

0930       GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG) C 43000 | P 43342

1200       USD       MBA Mortgage applications (SEP20) P -0.1%

1400       EUR        CPB Releases World Trade Monitor

1500       USD       New Home Sales MoM (AUG) C 3.3% | P -12.8%

1530       USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (SEP20) P 1058k

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Rising slowly and only slightly from the 1.2430 area and testing towards the 1.2440 level and then holding in that range through to late in the session before slipping through to the 1.2425 areas and holding into the grey hour, a slight rise to push through to the 1.2445 level as London moved in and then slipping through to the 1.2415 level on worse than expected finance numbers however, the Supreme court ruling of the illegality of prorogation by the Government bolstered the Cable and the market quickly pushed through to the 1.2490 level dipping back from the high and then starting a more steady push higher pushing lightly through the 1.2500 level and then ranging around the 1.2480 until late in the session before holding just below the level to the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.50 level the market based along the level through the Asian session rising in early Tokyo through to the 107.65 areas and ranging deep into the London session before managing a push to the 107.80 and the highs of the day, the move through into the NYK session saw the market trading quickly back as the US democrats pushed for impeachment of Pres. Trump again sending the USD quickly lower against the JPY and testing through to the 107.00 level a minor bounce saw the market recover 40 pips before losing it for the second time and testing lightly through the figure level and finishing just above the level into the close.
    AUD: Opening just above the lows for the day the market moved through into Tokyo pushing through to the 0.6765 level before steadily improving through to the grey hour pushing through the 0.6780 levels, a small range through into early London morning before rising quickly after Lowe’s speech testing through the 68 cents level dipping back and then running to the close ranging between the 0.6790-0.6800 area.
    EUR: A slow drift from the opening saw the market testing through the 1.0990 level and then holding around the level through to the London session, light improvement once the numbers were out of the way, it wasn’t really until the NYK session saw the market rising through to the 1.1000 level ranging between the 1.1000-1.1010 area and becoming choppy once London was out of the way testing to the close around the 1.1020 level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) A 48.9 | 49.3

JPY         BOJ Governor Kuroda speech in Osaka

EUR        German IFO Business climate (SEP) A 94.6 | C 94.5 | 94.3

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (SEP) A 98.5 | C 97 | 97.3

EUR        German IFO Expectations (SEP) A 90.8 | C 92 | P 91.3

GBP       Central Government NCR (AUG) A 5.6B | P -8.1B

GBP       PSNB ex Banking Groups (AUG) A 6.4B | C 7.1B | P -1.3B | R -0.8B

GBP       Public Finances (PSNCR) (AUG) A 6.4B | P -13.5B | R -14.1B

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) A 5.8B | C 6.6B | P -2.0B

AUD       RBA Governor Lowe Gives speech in Armidale

MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (SEP15) A 0.17% | C 0.2% | P 0.05%

MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (YoY) (SEP15) A 2.99% | C 3.02% | P 3.04%

USD       House Price Index (MoM) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

USD       S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA (JUL) A 0.02% | C 0.1% | P 0.04%

USD       S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) A 2.00 | C 2.15% | P 2.13% | R 2.16%

USD       S&P/Case Shiller- US Home Price Index (YoY) (JUL) A 3.18% | P 3.13% | R 3.25%

USD       Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) A 125.1 | C 133.0 | P 135.1 | R 134.2

USD       Conf. Board Present Situation (SEP) A 169 | P 177.2

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.