Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.839 | EURUSD 1.09202 | AUDUSD 0.6748 | NZDUSD 0.63044 | USDCAD 1.32670 | USDCHF 0.99374 | GBPUSD 1.23227 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09254 | 1.09042

USDJPY                107.850 | 107.671

GBPUSD              1.23395 | 1.23113

USDCHF               0.99407 | 0.99319

AUDUSD             0.67626 | 0.6744

USDCAD              1.32779 | 1.32662

NZDUSD              0.63005 | 0.62832

EURCHF               1.08582 | 1.08464

EURGBP              0.88634 | 0.88539

EURJPY                117.776 | 117.444

 

For Today

  • GBP: Opening just above the 1.2320 level the market generally moved slightly higher through the day with one minor dip through to the 1.2315 areas on the Juncker comment released on Reuters however, this is generally accepted as been a standard mantra from the EU, the market recovered and push to above the 1.2330 areas to hold quietly through to the grey hour, Downside congestion remains through 1.2300 level before some weak stops competing with further congestion on a break through the level and bids likely to increase on any move towards the 1.2200-50 areas. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.2400 level with limited congestion on any move through the level building steadily stronger the further through the 1.24 handle the market moves with strong offers particularly around the 1.2500 level.
  • JPY: USDJPY held quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping away on light supply in the Tokyo fix and following through with a slow decline to the 107.70 areas with the market basing along the area through to the grey hour, Topside offers building around the 107.80 area however, they are likely to be a little weak and a push through to the 108 handle and stronger offers likely to be strong through to the 108.50 areas. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with strong bids in the area and weak stops likely to be through the 106.80 areas with stronger bids through the 106.60 level and congestion continuing through to the 106.00 level.
  • AUD: Slowly rising through into the Tokyo session to push at the 0.6755 areas before dropping back quickly on light volumes to test lightly through the 0.6745 areas before recovering and then starting a further steady rise through to above the 0.6760 level before holding quietly around the level through to the grey hour. Topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with some offers then holding through to the 68 cents level again and stronger offers through to the 0.6820 level with possible weak stops just above the level opening only a small space before running into likely congestive offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6740 level and stronger bids in the area with bids likely to increase on any test to the 0.6720-00 level with weak stops limited through the 0.6680 level possibly covered by stronger congestion through to the 0.6650 areas.
  • EUR: A slow start to the day with the market spiking lower through the 109.10 level on a quick stab towards any stops before holding quietly above the lows and then rising through the opening level to push the 1.0925 area for the move through to the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be weak on any move through to the 1.1000 areas with congestion around the 1.1020 level and weak stops just beyond the level and opening the market through to the 1.1040-60 areas where congestion is likely, stronger offers then appear on any push through the 1.1080-1.1100 levels. Downside bids through the yesterday’s lows and then increasing as the market moves towards the 1.0920-00 areas, with stops likely on any dip through the 1.0880 areas and opening a longer-term downside move.

 

Overnight News

EUR:

ECB’s Lautenshlager resigned and Panetta could join

ECB’s Lane says there’s room for further rate cuts if needed – BBG

USD:

US unlikely to renew waiver for American Huawei suppliers – BBG

US deploys air defence systems, troops to Saudi Arabia – APW

FED’s Barkin says rate cuts are insurance, not prolonged easing – BBG

CNY:

China’s Aug. Manufacturing sector profits – 3.2% – NBS

China sells 10b Yuan of bills in Hong Kong to protect Yuan ahead of National day, US trade war talks – SMP

NZD:

NZ Consumer confidence fell to 4yr low in September – ANZ

EUR/GBP:

EU’s Juncker says Britain will be responsible If no Brexit deal – RTRS

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) A -12 | C -14 | P -14

1330       USD       Durable Goods orders (AUG P) C -1.2% | P 2.0%

1330       USD       PCE Core YoY (AUG) C 1.8% | P 1.6%

1330       USD       Durables Ex Transportation (AUG P) C 0.3% | P -0.4%

1330       USD       PCE Core MoM (AUG) C 0.2% | P 0.2%

1330       USD       Personal Income (AUG) C 0.4% | P 0.1%

1330       USD        Personal Spending (AUG) C 0.3% | P 0.6%

1330       USD       Real Personal Spending (AUG) C 0.2% | P 0.4%

1500       USD       U. of Mich Sentiment (SEP F) C 92.1 | P 92.0

1800       USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (SEP 27) P 868

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening just below the 1.2360 level the market slowly pushed through and held deep into the Tokyo session around the level before making a quick move through to the 1.2380 level and testing the level a couple of times over the next 2 hours before drifting through to the London opening just holding onto the opening levels, the opening saw some selling testing to the 1.2350 and only once the dovish ECB bulletin sending the USD higher and GBP lower testing to the 1.2330 area and pausing then running again on a move to the 1.2300 level bouncing off the level and spending the run to NYK to the opening levels to range around the 1.2350 area through to late in the session before breaking through the downside again and finishing just off the lows.
  • JPY: A reasonably quiet day for the USDJPY with the market slipping from the 107.75 areas and then settling into to light trading around the 107.60 area through to the NYK session before the market saw cross selling pushing the USDJPY through to the 107.45 areas however, from this point onwards the market started a steady drive higher with US numbers broadly in line taking the market through to the London close holding the opening levels again and continuing after a brief pause testing through to the 107.95 area before drifting for the final hour.
  • AUD: Rising from the opening around the 0.6750 areas pushing lightly into the Tokyo session above the 0.6760 area before dipping back to 0.6745 and after a pause renewing its move higher through this time to the 0.6765 level before losing ground again on the move through into the London session, basing along the 0.6750 opening areas the market eventually started a slow steady rise pausing again around the 0.6760-65 areas before the US numbers were released and the Oz quickly pushing through to the 0.6780 level to make the high of the day, failing to push further the market held for a brief period before drifting back again and dipping back to the lows and holding around the level to the close.
  • EUR: A slow but steady rise through the Asian session from the 1.0945 level and eventually testing to the 1.0965 level before running into the grey hour and a slow drift through the session with very little deviation to test into the 1.0920’s and a limited pause before US numbers saw the EUR running quickly to just above the highs before dropping back as the London session came to an end and the drift sent the market testing the 1.0910 area and held around the 1.0920 areas to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

EUR        German GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) A 9.9 | C 9.6 | P 9.7

JPY         BoJ Governor Kuroda speech

EUR        ECB Publishes Economic bulletin

MXN      Economic Activity IGAE (YoY) (JUL) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P -0.9%

USD       Advance Goods Trade Balance (AUG) A -$72.8b | C -$73.4b | P -72.3b

USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized QoQ (2Q T) A 2.0% | C 2.0% | P 2.0%

USD       Continuing claims (SEP14) A 1650k | C 1666k | P 1661k

USD       Core PCE (QoQ) (2Q T) A 1.9% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%

USD       Gross Domestic Product Price index (2Q T) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (SEP21) A 213k | C 211k | P 208k | R 210k

USD       Personal Consumption (2Q T) A 4.6% | C 4.7% | P 4.7%

USD       Wholesale Inventories MoM (AUG P) A 0.4% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

EUR        ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt

GBP       BoE Governor Carney Speaks in Frankfurt

USD       Pending Home Sales YoY (AUG) A 1.1% | P 1.7%

 

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