Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.844 | EURUSD 1.1151 | AUDUSD 0.69038 | NZDUSD 0.63579 | USDCAD 1.31593 | USDCHF 0.9895 | GBPUSD 1.29002 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11702 | 1.11481
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.901 | 108.589
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29335 | 1.28933
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98951 | 0.9867
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69289 | 0.68977
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31720 | 1.31513
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.64337 | 0.63932
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10337 | 1.10203
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86466 | 0.8636
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.462 | 121.282
For Today
- GBP: A steady grind higher with good volumes going through pushing off the 1.2900 lows to test to the 1.2935 level before running out of steam and drifting back a little to hold around the 1.2920 level going into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.2950 area however, the closer you get to the 1.3000 area the stronger the offers begin to get, with stop losses likely on a push through the 1.3020 levels could see option related stops and the market quickly moving through to challenge the 1.3050 sentimental level and very little to slow a push higher especially on the back of any hopeful news, downside bids likely to be limited through to with some clusters around the 1.2850 area and stronger into the 1.2800 level with maybe weak stops on a dip through the 1.2750 areas the market could possibly see quick dips through to the light congestion around the sentimental levels to 1.2600 where possibly stiffer bids start to appear.
- JPY: USD looked weaker through the session with the USDJPY opening on its highs then slipping through to the 108.80 area before moving into the Tokyo session and dipping quickly through to 108.60 and finding a limited base for the move through to the grey hours. Topside offers remain into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
- AUD: Oz saw the same pattern through the Tokyo session holding around the 69 cents into the Tokyo session before starting a slow but steady grind through to the 0.6930 areas and then holding in a tight range around the 0.6925 areas through to the grey hours after the RBA commentary on the weaker USD causing the AUD to rise. . Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
- EUR: A slow climb through the early part of the session moving away from the 1.1150 level and once into the Tokyo session pushing steadily through to the 1.1170 area before meeting resistance and drifting a little through into the grey hours holding the bulk of its gains, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.
Overnight News
USD:
After three cuts, Powell sees reason to pause
Bolton asked to testify in impeachment inquiry – DJ
USD/CNY:
China deal time frame unchanged despite APEC cancellation BBG
GBP:
UK’s Brexit Party mulls pulling out of hundreds of races FT
ZAR:
Rand slumps as Eskom rescue plan fall short of expectations BBG
CAD:
BoC stands pat as expected; governing council contemplated an insurance cut
JPY:
BoJ maintains policy balance rate at -0.1%
BoJ Maintains 10yr JGB Yield target at about 0%
BoJ Adjusts forward guidance
BoJ sees FY 19 core CPI incl sales tax at 0.7%, 1.0% previously
BoJ Won’t hesitate to add easing if risks rise
BoJ signals possibility for lower rates
BoJ Sees FY20 core CPI incl sales tax at 1.1%, 1.3% previously
BoJ Risks are on downside for prices and economy
BoJ Price momentum is being maintained
BOJ GDP 19, 0.6% vs. 0.7%, 20, 0.7% Vs. 0.9%, 21, 1.0% Vs. 1.1%
AUD:
RBA Board’s Harper frets at Fed rate cuts reviving AUD – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits MoM (SEP) A 7.2% | P 0.8% | R 0.9%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YoY (SEP P) A 1.1% | C -0.1% | P -4.7%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Activity outlook (OCT) A 3.5 | P -1.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) A -14 | C -13 | P -12
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals YoY (SEP) A -19.0% | C -25.7% | P -21.5%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Sector Credit YoY (SEP) A 2.7% | C 2.7% | P 2.9%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 49.3 | C 49.8 | P 49.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Composite PMI (OCT) A 52 | P 53.1
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 52.8 | C 53.7 | P 53.7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ 10yr Yield Target (OCT 31) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision (OCT 31) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ CPI Current Forecast +1 (4Q) A 1.1% | P 1.3%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ CPI Current Forecast +2 (4Q) A 1.5% | P 1.6%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Construction Orders YoY (SEP) A -6.8% | P -25.9%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index (OCT) A 36.2 | C 35.2 | P 35.6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts YoY (SEP) A -4.9% | C -6.7% | P -7.1%
0700Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales YoY (SEP) C 3.4% | P 3.2%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer price Index Core YoY (OCT P) C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Price Index Estimate YoY (OCT) C 0.7% | 0.9%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q A) C 0.1% | P 0.2%
1000Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate (SEP) C 7.4% | P 7.4%
1100Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Product w.d.a. YoY (3Q P) C 0.2% | P -0.1%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP YoY (AUG) C 1.4% | P 1.3%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP MoM YoY C 0.2% | P 0.00%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core YoY (SEP) C 1.7% | P 1.8%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims (OCT 19) C 1679k | P 1682k
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index (3Q) C 0.7% | P 0.6%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless claims (OCT 26) C 215k | P 212k
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core MoM (SEP) C 0.1% | P 0.1%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income (SEP) C 0.3% | P 0.4%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending (SEP) C 0.2% | P 0.1%
1230Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Real Personal Spending (SEP) C 0.2% | P 0.1%
1345Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago Purchasing Manager (OCT 25) P 87
1530Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB’s Jordan speaks about challenges for pension funds in Bern
2130Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (OCT) P 54.7
2330Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate (SEP) C 2.2% | P 2.2%
Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: A tight range through the Asian session with the market testing the 1.2860 level lightly and forming a base through the session but unable to break through the 1.2870 level with any conviction until into the grey hours, with early London producing a steady rise through to the 1.2885 level then popping through the 1.2900 level on the opening in London but unable to push beyond the 1.2905 areas, once it hit those highs the market dipped back to the 1.2875 level in a similar fashion to the rise then held deep into the session before slowly rising again through to the 1.2900 level before slowly drifting in early NYK to push through to the opening levels , the move to the FOMC started to chop around a little dipping to the lows of the day just through the 1.2850 level before rallying on the Powell comments to test quickly through the 1.2900 area and failing the 1.2910 level repeatedly before settling in to a short run to the close holding just above the 1.2900 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY held through to the FOMC in a very tight range with the market trading quietly around the 108.85 levels and unable to break in either direction until the move into the early part of NYK and then only a minor push through to the 108.95 area before slowly slipping through back into the previous range again, FOMC saw a quick rise higher with the unchanged release however, the dovish comments post release by Powell triggered USD selling and the market quickly dropped from the high just short of the 109.30 area to test quickly through the 108.80 areas before holding and then struggling through to the end of the session almost unchanged on the day.
- AUD: A little wider in range than say the USDJPY through to the FOMC however, it was limited with the opening around the 0.6865 area and slipping through into the Tokyo session testing lightly through the 0.6850 area before quickly recovering and pushing above the 0.6870 level to make the highs through Asia, the move through to London saw the 0.6870 level pushed through and the market holding around the 0.6875 areas and that more or less completed the range until the FOMC with similar results initial USD buying on the no cut and testing the 0.6850 level again before quickly rallying on the commentary from Powell and testing through to the 0.6900 areas through to the close.
- EUR: Similar trading to the rest of the Majors and Minors with the Asian session very quiet and aa tight range around the 1.1110 areas before slowly rising through the grey hour to test lightly above the 1.1120 level and then holding through to the 1.1115 level into NYK the range increased a little dipping through to the 1.1100 level bur recovered for the move into the FOMC dipping as USD buyers took the no change as a signal to buy USD’s and the Euro dipped through to the 1.1080 area before quickly bouncing and pushing through to the 1.1150 areas and a slow rise through to the close.
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Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Large Retailers Sales (SEP) A 10% | C 8.8% | P 0.4% | R 0.3%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade YoY (SEP) A 9.1% | C 6.1% | P 2.0% | R 1.8%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI YoY (3Q) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.6%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI QoQ (3Q) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean QoQ (3Q) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean YoY (3Q) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median QoQ (3Q) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median YoY (3Q) A 1.2% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP YoY (3Q P)Â A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 1.4% | R 1.4%
CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator (OCT) A 94.7 | C 93.5 | P 93.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change (000s) (OCT) A 6.0k | C 2.0k | P -10.0k
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims rate s.a. (OCT) A 5.0% | C 5.0% | P 5.0%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 25) A 0.6% | P -11.9%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change (OCT) A 125k | C 115k | P 135k | R 93k
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized (QoQ) (3Q A) A 1.9% | C 1.6% | P 2.0%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core PCE (QoQ) (3Q A) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 1.9%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Product Price Index (3Q A) A 1.6% | C 1.9% | P 2.4%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Consumption (3Q A) A 2.9% | C 2.6% | P 4.6%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI YoY (OCT P) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.2%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI MoM (OCT P) A 0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT P) A 0.9% | C 0.8% | P 0.9%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision (OCT 30) A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 25) A 5702k | C -104k | P -1699K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (OCT 30) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.75%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (OCT 30) A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Interest rate on Excess Reserves (OCT 31) A 1.55% | C 1.55% | P 1.80%
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