Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.027 | EURUSD 1.11511 | AUDUSD 0.68944 | NZDUSD 0.64066 | USDCAD 1.31628 | USDCHF 0.98651 | GBPUSD 1.29405 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11663 | 1.11489

USDJPY                108.057 | 107.898

GBPUSD              1.29664 | 1.29254

USDCHF               0.98685 | 0.98593

AUDUSD             0.69103 | 0.68843

USDCAD              1.31725 | 1.31493

NZDUSD              0.64426 | 0.64078

EURCHF               1.10119 | 1.10008

EURGBP              0.86276 | 0.86097

EURJPY                120.642 | 120.37

For Today

  • GBP: Unable to push the highs from yesterday through the session the market drifted a little from the opening testing to the lows around the 1.2930 area before moving into the Tokyo session to teste through the 1.2950 level in early trading and then testing lightly through to the 1.2960 areas and holding in a tight range through to the grey hours, Topside congestion likely to continue with stronger offers through to the 1.3000 area and likely stops on a move through opening the chance of minor gains through to the 1.3050 area before running into stronger congestion and likely slowing the market until 1.3100 is broken with possibility of strong offers around the area. Downside bids likely to be weak through the 1.2900 level with weak stops likely on a move through the level however, any dip is likely to see minor congestion around the 1.2850 level before the market stiffens and becomes more supportive on any move through to the 1.2800 area with possible stops on a move through the 1.2780 areas.
  • JPY: Another quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening just above the 108.00 level before ranging around the level through to the grey hours with the market unable to sustain any push above the 108.05 level and limited to the 107.90 downside, Topside offers remain into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
  • AUD: Dipping from the opening around the 0.6895 area and testing through into the high 0.6880’s before moving into the Tokyo session saw selling of AUDJPY cross in early trading and testing to the 0.6885 level to make the lows before reversing and going onto a limited buy spree through to the 0.6910 level before slowing and holding quietly just above the 69 cents level to the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: A slight rise from the opening pushing through to the Tokyo session testing the high 1.1150’s from the opening around 1.1150, the move into the Tokyo session saw a minor dip to make the lows just through the opening level before pushing steadily through into the 1.1115 level on slow trading only to hold in a tight range through to the grey hours, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees  minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.

 

 

Overnight News

AUD:

Australia OCT. Manufacturing index falls 3.1 pts MoM to 51.6

CNY:

China said to doubt long term trade possible with Trump – BBG

CHF:

Jordan: Band for price stability is sensible – BBG

USD:

JPMorgan has solution for Powell that will free up Banks cash – BBG

Treasury pares back anti-inversion tax regulations – DJ

USD/GBP:

Trump warns Johnson his Brexit deal makes US trade deal hard – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (OCT) A 51.6 | P 54.7

JPY         Jobless Rate (SEP) A 2.4% | C 2.2% | P 2.2%

CNY        Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (OCT) A 51.7 | C 51 | P 51.4

0730       CHF        CPI Core YoY (OCT) C 0.4% | P 0.4%

0730       CHF        CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

0730       CHF        CPI YoY (OCT) C 0.0% | P 0.1%

0730       CHF        Retail Sales Real YoY (SEP) P -1.4%

0830       CHF        PMI Manufacturing (OCT) C 45.3 | P 44.6

0930       GBP       Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (OCT) C 48.3 | P 48.3

1230       USD       Change in Non-Farm-Payrolls (OCT) C 88k | P 136k

1230       USD       Unemployment Rate (OCT) 3.6% | P 3.5%

1230       USD       Average Hourly Earnings YoY (OCT) C 3.0% | P 2.90%

1230       USD       Average Weekly Hours All Employees (OCT) C 34.4 | P 34.4

1230       USD       Change in Payrolls (OCT) C 85.k | P 114k

1330       CAD       RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (OCT) P 51

1400       USD       ISM Employment (OCT) P 46.3

1400       USD       ISM Manufacturing (OCT) C 49.0 | P 47.8

1400       USD       ISM Prices Paid (OCT) C 50 | P 49.7

1530       MXN      Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (OCT) P 49.1

1700       USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV 1) P 830

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise through the first half of the day pushing from the 1.2900 level and limited through into the Tokyo session before starting the rally pushing through steadily to the 1.2935 level doing plenty of volume before drifting through to the grey hour before buyers reappeared and the push to the 1.2950 level, the run to NYK saw the market testing through to the 1.2975 area before running out of steam and the market drifting off back through the 1.2950 level and holding around the 1.2935 areas through to the close.
  • JPY: A slow drift through the Asian session with a tight range for the most part, falling from the opening 108.85 areas the market tested lower in early Tokyo to the 108.65 level and then held through to the London session, with some early selling sending the market through to the 108.30 level and then continuing its slow drift through to the NYK session holding the 10810 level then eventually moving through to the 108.00 level with the market running around the level in a long drawn out move to the close.
    AUD:
    Slow push from the opening holding around the 69 cents level before starting a steady rise through to the 0.6930 level before ranging around the 0.6920 areas to the London session, early selling in London saw the market quickly back to the opening levels and then ranging around the 69 cents areas through into the NYK session and while there was some early buying it was limited and the market gravitated to the 0.6885 area lows holding through to late in the session before seeing some light buying to push the market to the 0.6895 area for the close.
  • EUR: Range bound for the most part rising from the opening level to push slowly through to the 1.1170 level from 1.1150 before holding in a tight range through to the London testing to the 1.1175 area a couple of times before starting a slow drift through to make the lows just above the 1.1130 level before holding through to the close around the opening levels.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Building Permits MoM (SEP) A 7.2% | P 0.8% | R 0.9%

JPY         Industrial Production YoY (SEP P) A 1.1% | C -0.1% | P -4.7%

NZD       ANZ Activity outlook (OCT) A 3.5 | P -1.8

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) A -14 | C -13 | P -12

AUD       Building Approvals YoY (SEP) A -19.0% | C -25.7% | P -21.5%

AUD       Private Sector Credit YoY (SEP) A 2.7% | C 2.7% | P 2.9%

CNY        Manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 49.3 | C 49.8 | P 49.8

CNY        Composite PMI (OCT) A 52 | P 53.1

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 52.8 | C 53.7 | P 53.7

JPY         BoJ 10yr Yield Target (OCT 31) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision (OCT 31) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

JPY         BoJ CPI Current Forecast +1 (4Q) A 1.1% | P 1.3%

JPY         BoJ CPI Current Forecast +2 (4Q) A 1.5% | P 1.6%

JPY         Construction Orders YoY (SEP) A -6.8% | P -25.9%

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index (OCT) A 36.2 | C 35.2 | P 35.6

JPY         Housing Starts YoY (SEP) A -4.9% | C -6.7% | P -7.1%

EUR        German Retail Sales YoY (SEP) A 3.4% | C 3.4% | P 3.2% | R 3.1%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer price Index Core YoY (OCT P) A 1.1% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Price Index Estimate YoY (OCT) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | 0.9% | R 0.8%

EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (3Q A) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.2%

EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q A) A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P 0.2%

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate (SEP) A 7.5% | C 7.4% | P 7.4%

EUR        Italian GDP Product w.d.a. YoY (3Q P) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P -0.1%

CAD       GDP YoY (AUG) A 1.3% | C 1.4% | P 1.3%

CAD       GDP MoM YoY A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.00%

USD       PCE Core YoY (SEP) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.8%

USD       Continuing Claims (OCT 19) A 1690k | C 1679k | P 1682k | R 1683k

USD       Employment Cost Index (3Q) A 07% | C 0.7% | P 0.6%

USD       Initial Jobless claims (OCT 26) A 218k | C 215k | P 212k | R 213k

USD       PCE Core MoM (SEP) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%

USD       Personal Income (SEP) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.4% | R 0.5%

USD       Personal Spending (SEP) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.1% | R 0.2%

USD       Real Personal Spending (SEP) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%

USD       Chicago Purchasing Manager (OCT 25) A 43.2 | C 48.0 | P 47.1

CHF        SNB’s Jordan speaks about challenges for pension funds in Bern

 

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