Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.177 | EURUSD 1.11656 | AUDUSD 0.69136 | NZDUSD 0.64274 | USDCAD 1.31417 | USDCHF 0.98572 | GBPUSD 1.29386 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11736 | 1.1160
USDJPY 108.258 | 108.208
GBPUSD 1.29423 | 1.29222
USDCHF 0.98670 | 0.98561
AUDUSD 0.69230 | 0.69045
USDCAD 1.31454 | 1.31335
NZDUSD 0.64610 | 0.64290
EURCHF 1.10194 | 1.10049
EURGBP 0.86399 | 0.86291
EURJPY 120.928 | 120.777
For Today
• GBP: Opening a little lower the market pushed back to Fridays close to fill the gap and then ranged quietly through to grey hours having tested lightly above the 1.2940 area for the high. Topside congestion likely to continue with stronger offers through to the 1.3000 area and likely stops on a move through opening the chance of minor gains through to the 1.3050 area before running into stronger congestion and likely slowing the market until 1.3100 is broken with possibility of strong offers around the area. Downside bids likely to be weak through the 1.2900 level with weak stops likely on a move through the level however, any dip is likely to see minor congestion around the 1.2850 level before the market stiffens and becomes more supportive on any move through to the 1.2800 area with possible stops on a move through the 1.2780 areas.
• JPY: Japanese bank holiday and that shows in the tight range, having opening just above the 108.20 level the market remained in the 108.23 area through to the grey hour, Topside offers remain into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
• AUD: Unchanged from Friday a little more movement through the session, little being the operative word with the market dipping to the 0.6905 area before rallying through to the 0.6923 areas and holding quietly through to the grey hour. Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
• EUR: Opening almost unchanged and drifting back to the 1.1160 level before starting a slow rise through to above the 1.1170 areas before holding quietly through to the grey hour slipping slowly through, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.

Overnight News
USD:
US Government urged TSMC to stop selling Chips to Huawei – FT
US may not need to put tariffs on imported cars, Ross says – DPA
Feroli Changes Fed call for Dec, now on hold
Trump China trade deal will be signed somewhere in US – BBG
Wilbur Ross optimistic on trade deal, says Huawei-sales licenses coming shortly – DJ
AUD:
The nightmare haunting Aussie banks – AFR
Top forecaster says AUD rally living on borrowed time – SYH
HKD:
About 200 arrested as Hong Kong protesters, and police clash – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD TD Securities Inflation YoY (OCT) A 1.5% | P 1.5%
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ (3Q) A -0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
NZD Treasury Publishes Monthly Economic Indicators
0645 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (4Q) C -8 | P -8
0930 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (OCT) C 44.1 | P 43.3
1500 USD Durable Goods Orders (SEP F) C -1.1% | P -1.1%
1500 USD Factory Orders (SEP) C -0.5% | P -0.1%
1930 EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks in Berlin
2130 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (OCT) P 51.5

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Dipping through to the lows of the day from the opening to test into the upper 1.2920’s before slowly regaining the 1.2940 areas for the move into the Tokyo session and rallying quickly through to the 1.2950 area before slowing the pace and testing through the 1.2960 level and holding around that level through into the London session, London took it to the highs of the day just after the opening to test above the 1.2970 level before dropping back to range in a 1.2940-70 level through deep into the NYK session before running through to the close testing lightly through the 1.2930 level then back to the opening levels for the close.
• JPY: A quiet run through the Asian session with the market holding around the opening levels and trading through too deep into the London session before moving higher, the market opened around the 108.00 level and Asia saw the low of the day on the move into the Tokyo session testing lightly through the 107.90 area before recovering and then generally ranging in a tight range around the 108.00 level until running into the NYK session, better payrolls in the US saw the market push through to just above the 108.20 level before drifting a little and testing towards the lows again before starting a slow steady rise through to make the highs of the day just above the 108.30 areas before drifting through to the close just below the 108.20 level.
• AUD: A quiet range through into the Tokyo session with the Oz making its lows early in Tokyo before rising steadily from the 0.6885 area and testing through to the 0.6910 level before holding the level and ranging quietly through to the London, London saw a minor dip back through to the 0.6895 area and spent much of the time trading in the 0.6890-0.6900 area through to deep into the NYK session before rallying to the high of the day just through the 0.6920 levels before slipping slowly back through to the close just off the highs.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1150 level the market eased through into the Tokyo session rising only slightly before dipping back again in early trading before starting a slow steady rise through to the 1.1165 areas and then ranging quietly around the level before moving into London, London eventually saw the market slowly dipping through to the 1.1140 areas before holding through to the NYK session recovering the opening and then dropping quickly through to the 1.1130 areas before recovering just as quickly from the lows to the opening levels again pausing then running again and steadily pushing through to the 1.1170 areas and a long run to the close between the 1.1160-70 areas.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (OCT) A 51.6 | P 54.7
JPY Jobless Rate (SEP) A 2.4% | C 2.2% | P 2.2%
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (OCT) A 51.7 | C 51 | P 51.4
CHF CPI Core YoY (OCT) A 0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
CHF CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT) A -0.3% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
CHF CPI YoY (OCT) A -0.3% | C 0.0% | P 0.1%
CHF Retail Sales Real YoY (SEP) A 0.9% | P -1.4%
CHF PMI Manufacturing (OCT) A 49.4 | C 45.3 | P 44.6
GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (OCT) A 49.6 | C 48.3 | P 48.3
USD Change in Non-Farm-Payrolls (OCT) A 128k | C 88k | P 136k | 180k
USD Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 3.6% | C 3.6% | P 3.5%
USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (OCT) A 3.0% | C 3.0% | P 2.90%
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (OCT) A 34.4 | C 34.4 | P 34.4
USD Change in Payrolls (OCT) A 131k | C 85.k | P 114k | R 167k
CAD RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (OCT) A 51.2 | P 51
USD ISM Employment (OCT) A 47.7 | P 46.3
USD ISM Manufacturing (OCT) A 48.3 | C 49.0 | P 47.8
USD ISM Prices Paid (OCT) A 45.5 | C 50 | P 49.7
MXN Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (OCT) A 50.4 | P 49.1
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV 1) A 822 | P 830

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