Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.024 | EURUSD 1.10088 | AUDUSD 0.68413 | NZDUSD 0.63345 | USDCAD 1.32337 | USDCHF 0.99322 | GBPUSD 1.28454 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10161 | 1.10059

USDJPY                109.100 | 108.873

GBPUSD              1.28611 | 1.28415

USDCHF               0.99330 | 0.99073

AUDUSD             0.68570 | 0.6831

USDCAD              1.32475 | 1.32299

NZDUSD              0.64205 | 0.63304

EURCHF               1.09358 | 1.09140

EURGBP              0.85743 | 0.85612

EURJPY                120.164 | 119.866

For Today

  • GBP: Choppy opening saw a little spirt from the opening and taking the market through the 1.2860 level to make the high of the day from the opening low around the 1.2845 area, the market settled to trade around the 1.2850 level for the most part with a light push through to test the 1.2860 area for a second time before returning to the 1.2850 level again, Downside limited bids through the 1.2800 area but likely to be stronger on any dip through to the 1.2780-70 areas and stronger from there likely to be around the 1.2750 area with possible mix of stops, a push through the downside is likely to see weaker congestion through to the 1.2700 level and possible stronger stops of a tip through the level, topside offers light through to the 1.2900 areas with some patches of offers around the level opens up a test through to the 1.2920 area with weak stops likely on a push through to the 1.2910 area however, from 1.2920 onwards the market is likely to find stronger congestion appearing and increasing through to the 1.2960-1.3000 level where stronger offers are likely to appear.
  • JPY: A weak test from the opening in Tokyo through to the 108.90’s before starting a slow steady rise through to midsession not quiet able to push the 109.10 level and a slow move through to the grey hours holding around the 109.05 area, Topside offers 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level likely stronger stops on a push through the 110.20 areas before the market to 110.50 and stronger offers likely to appear in the area. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
  • AUD: A slightly better range for the Oz if only because of the rate announcement in NZ, lightly moving of the 0.6840 to test the 0.6845 into the Tokyo session, expectations in Tokyo saw the Oz drop back to the 0.6830 areas before rallying quickly through to the 0.6857 area once the AUDNZD settled and the Oz started catching up with the NZD movement however, once the rally was done the market dropped back almost as quickly and then held around the 0.6840 area for the run to the grey hours holding slowly around the opening level, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Very slow session for the Euro with the market opening around the 1.1010 area and slowly ranging through to push above the 1.1020 area for the move into the grey hours, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

NZD:

NZ maintains benchmark interest rate at 1%

RBNZ: Will add further stimulus if needed

RBNZ: Forecasts show of chance of a rate cut next year

RBNZ: Economy developments since Aug don’t warrant policy change

RBNZ: Will add further monetary stimulus if needed

RBNZ: Cuts 4Q 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.7%

RBNZ: Rates need to remain low for prolonged period

RBNZ: Domestic activity expected to increase in 2020

RBNZ: Economic growth continued to slow in mid 2019

RBNZ: Past reductions were transmitting through economy

RBNZ: Lower NZD helping to offset weaker global environment

Orr: No urgency to use unconventional tools

Orr: Will outline types of tools in early 2020

USD:

Pact reached to avert Government shutdown through Dec. 20 APW

Trump slams EU’s terrible tariffs before crucial decision on car imports TEL

America’s largest milk producer, Dean foods, files for bankruptcy ABC

White House eyes middle-class tax cut proposal ahead of 2020 election WP

EUR:

ECB’s Negative rate tweak shifts cash from Germany to Italy – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV) A 4.5% | P -5.5%

JPY         Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (SEP) A 1.90% | P 2.44%

AUD       Wage Price Index YoY (3Q) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 2.3%

NZD       RBNZ Official cash rate (NOV 13) A 1.00% | C 0.75% | P 1.00%

NZD       RBNZ Governor news conference after OCR Decision

0700       EUR        German CPI YoY (OCT F) C 1.1% | P 1.1%

0700       EUR        German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT F) C 0.9% | P 0.9%

0930       GBP       CPI YoY (OCT) C 1.6% | P 1.7%

0930       GBP       Core CPI YoY (OCT) C 1.7% | P 1.7%

0930       GBP       CPIH YoY (OCT) C 1.6% | P 1.7%

0930       GBP        CPI MoM (OCT) C -0.1% | P 0.1%

0930       GBP       House Price Index YoY (SEP) C 1.1% | P 1.3%

1000       EUR        Eurozone IP w.d.a. YoY (SEP) C -2.3% | P -2.8%

1200       USD       MBA Mortgage Applications P -0.1%

1330       USD       CPI YoY (OCT) C 1.7% | P 1.7%

1330       USD       CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (OCT) C 2.4% | P 2.4%

1330       USD       CPI MoM (OCT) C 0.3% | P 0.0%

1330       USD       CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (OCT) C 0.2% | P 0.1%

1330       USD       Real Average hourly Earnings YoY (OCT) P 1.2%

1330       USD       Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY (OCT) P 0.9%

1600       USD       Powell Addresses Joint Economic Committee of Congress

1900       USD       Monthly Budget Statement (OCT) C -$128.2b | P 82.8b

1910       NZD       RBNZ Governor at Parliament4 select Committee on MPS

2350       JPY         GDP annualized s.a. QoQ (3Q P) C 0.9% | P 1.3%

2350       JPY         GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q P) C 0.2% | P 0.3%

2350       JPY         Nominal GDP QoQ (3Q P) C 0.3% | P 0.3%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow rise higher through to the Tokyo session testing through to the hi 1.2860;s before drifting through to the midsession falling back towards the opening around the 1.2850 area, the move through to the London session pushing again towards the Tokyo highs before dropping quickly back through the opening in London to test through the 1.2820 level before bouncing and then holding through to NYK in the 1.2840-30 areas, the move into the NYK session saw the market slowly rising through initially moving through to the opening level before drifting a little before rising again this time a little further to push above the 1.2870 levels before drifting to the close in very light trading through the day.
  • JPY: Slow narrow range through to the Tokyo session before the market rising through to the 109.20 area before holding quietly through towards the grey hours, and another steady rise through to make the high of the day on the move into the London session holding just below the 109.30 levels and then a steady drift through the day, moving through to the NYK session slipping back through the 109.20 areas and then continuing eventually through the 109.10 areas and quickly testing through the 109.00 level ranging through to the close testing towards the 108.90 areas.
  • AUD: A reasonably choppy session if somewhat limited in range, opening just above the 0.6850 level the market drifted into the Tokyo session lightly pushing towards the 0.6855 area before dropping quickly back to test below the 0.6835 areas, a slow rise through to the grey hours pushing through to just above the 0.6855 area for the highs of the day and London came in and sent the market quickly back towards the lows, struggling a little for a couple of hours the market lifted of the 0.6835 areas for a limited recovery again and then dipping to the days low just above the 0.6830 level the market eventually ran to the close holding the 0.6840-50 area.
  • EUR: A slow drift through the day, opening around the 1.1030 area and rising into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.1038 area for the first time, a slow drift through to midsession before recovering from the 1.1025 areas to test slowly through to the high of the day just above the previous high, London sere sellers pushing through to the 1.1020 areas and a brief recovery before dropping back through to the 1.1015 level into the NYK session then after a weak recovery dipping through to test towards the 1.1000 level to make the low of the day, weak volumes didn’t improve the movement and the market went out holding around the 1.1010 areas.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (OCT) A 2 | P 0

NZD       RBNZ 2 year inflation expectation (4Q) A 1.80% | P 1.86%

JPY         Machine Tool Orders YoY (OCT P) A -37.4% | P -35.5%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (SEP) A 3.6% | C 3.8% | P 3.8% | R 3.7%

GBP       Claimant Count Rate (OCT) A 3.4% | P 3.3%

GBP       Employment Change 3m/3m (SEP) A -58k | C -102k | P -56k

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (SEP) A 3.8% | C 3.9% | P 3.9%

GBP       Jobless Claims Change (OCT) A 33.0k | P 21.1k

GBP       Output Per Hour YoY (3Q P) A 0.0% | P -0.5%

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3m/YoY (SEP) A 3.6% | C 3.8% | P 3.8%

EUR        Eurozone ZEW Survey (economic Sentiment) (NOV) A -1.0% | P -23.5

EUR        German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV) A -2.1 | C -13.0 | P -22.8

EUR        German ZEW Survey Current Situation (NOV) A -24.7 | C -22.0 | P -25.3

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.