LMAX Exchange - unique vision for global FX

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10109 | 1.09951
USDJPY 108.862 | 108626
GBPUSD 1.28609 | 1.28283
USDCHF 0.99078 | 0.9895
AUDUSD 0.68405 | 0.67956
USDCAD 1.32627 | 1.32522
NZDUSD 0.64183 | 0.63876
EURCHF 1.09000 | 1.08884
EURGBP 0.85727 | 0.85590
EURJPY 119.812 | 119.534
For Today
GBP: Opening towards its highs the Cable topped out around the 1.2856 area before moving into the Tokyo session to slowly slip through to the 1.2834 area for the move into the grey hours, Downside limited bids through the 1.2800 area but likely to be stronger on any dip through to the 1.2780-70 areas and stronger from there likely to be around the 1.2750 area with possible mix of stops, a push through the downside is likely to see weaker congestion through to the 1.2700 level and possible stronger stops of a tip through the level, topside offers light through to the 1.2900 areas with some patches of offers around the level opens up a test through to the 1.2920 area with weak stops likely on a push through to the 1.2910 area however, from 1.2920 onwards the market is likely to find stronger congestion appearing and increasing through to the 1.2960-1.3000 level where stronger offers are likely to appear.
JPY: A slow range through the session moving into the Tokyo session holding just above the 108.70 areas before steadily rising through to the 108.85 area for the market dropping from the level steadily through to the 108.70 area again then dipping through into the low 108.60’s late in the session and recovering to just above the 108.70 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 108.50 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 108.20 area before stronger bids are likely to appear on any push at the 108.00 area, some weak stops through the 107.80 level and a likely test through to the 107.50 areas with stronger bids along a trend line likely to slow the descent with stronger congestion through into the 107.00 level. Topside offers light through to the 108.50 areas, a move through the level could see some light weak stops on a move through however, any approach to the 109.00 level is likely to see stronger offers reappearing and continuing through to the 109.50 level with stronger offers into this months highs.
AUD: Opening around the 0.6835 area the market slowly moved through into the Tokyo session testing the 0.6840 and the highs for the day, the move through into the Tokyo session saw the employment numbers and CNY numbers both of which proved to be negative for the Oz and it quickly dipped to the 68 cents level a very limited bounce to the 0.6810 area saw a second round of selling and the market pushing through the figure level to hold quietly through to the grey hours unable to test beyond the 0.6795 area. , Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
EUR: Slowly pushing from the opening just above the 1.1000 level the market managed to move into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1010 level and the high for the day, Tokyo quickly sold the market off as Euro’s seemed to be dragged by the movement of the Oz and tested through to the 1.1000 level holding into the midsession the market saw a limited bounce before running through the figure level and testing to the lows of yesterday around the 1.0995 area, the move through to the grey hours saw limited attempts to run through around the figure level again, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

Overnight News
CNY:
China says plague outbreak risk minimal after two new cases in Beijing NPW
Economists say China’s economic slowdown is yet to see bottom BBG
CNY/AUD:
Weak China data across the board likely to weigh on AUD
EUR:
Neo-Nazi Atomwaffen Division spreads fear in Germany Spiegel
USD:
White house aide calls reports on trade talks snag rumour stuff FOX
AUD:
Australian participation rate was 66% in Oct
Part time employment fell 8,700 in Oct
Employment fell 19,000 in Oct
Full time employment fell 10,300 in Oct
NZD:
RNBZ Could cut rates in February if needed, deputy Governor Bascand
Orr says Committee faced tough decision to hold rates
Orr: RBNZ Can spend some time observing monetary policy working
Orr: RBNZ Will do what it takes to meet inflation target
O44: Rates need to stay low for long period of time
USD/CNY:
US retirement fund ok’s China investment after Senate threat BBG
HKD:
Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam holds emergency meeting after lethal night SYH

Harry Hindsight

GBP: Some choppy movements through the day opening on a wide move testing through to the 1.2884 area the high of the day before dipping down quickly through towards the 1.2840 level before holding steadily through the session to the grey hours around the 1.2850 area, the move into the grey hour saw limited buying saw the 1.2860 area tested again before London moved in and the market dropped quickly through to the 1.2825 area and bounced off the weaker CPI numbers to run towards the 1.2860 level again, the move through to the NYK session dipping back to hold around the 1.2830 areas and ranged through too late in the session again probing into the 1.2820’s to post the lows just above the 1.2820 level before holding steadily around the 1.2840 area and finally pushing late in the session to finish the day almost unchanged around the 1.2850 levels.
JPY: A limited Asian session dipping a little from the opening around the 109.00 level to test through the 108.90 area into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 109.10 area and then struggled through to the London session pushing at the high, once London moved into the arena the market quickly tested through the 109.10 levels to make the high around the 109.15 area but quickly failing on the break and dropping quickly back to the previous lows, the move through to the NYK session started to slide lower the closer the market moved to that opening slipping slowly through to midsession to test through into the 108.65 areas and the lows of the day only to range in a tight range around the 108.80 areas to the close.
AUD: Opening around the 0.6840 areas the market held through to the Tokyo session around the level and slowly slipped through to the 0.6830 areas before the RBNZ announcement saw the Oz quickly test through to the upper 0.6850;s to make the highs of the day, the market drifted off from the level and then held around the opening level through to the London session and steady selling saw the market slipping lower through to the 0.8625 area and an old trendline holding through deep into the NYK session and then a slow rise through to just below the opening levels.
EUR: A limited range for the Euro rising slowly through the Asian session pushing from the 1.1010 level and testing lightly through to the 1.1015 after several hours of trying the move into the London session the market dropped back with very little to cheer the Eurozone before recovering and rising from the early lows through the 1.1000 areas to test quickly through to the 1.1020 area however, that was the high of the day and the market drifted through the session into the NYK session to eventually test through to the 1.0995 areas before slowly rising and holding through to the close almost unchanged.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV) A 4.5% | P -5.5%
JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (SEP) A 1.90% | P 2.44%
AUD Wage Price Index YoY (3Q) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 2.3%
NZD RBNZ Official cash rate (NOV 13) A 1.00% | C 0.75% | P 1.00%
NZD RBNZ Governor news conference after OCR Decision
EUR German CPI YoY (OCT F) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT F) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
GBP CPI YoY (OCT) A 1.5% | C 1.6% | P 1.7%
GBP Core CPI YoY (OCT) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
GBP CPIH YoY (OCT) A 1.5% | C 1.6% | P 1.7%
GBP CPI MoM (OCT) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.1%
GBP House Price Index YoY (SEP) A 1.3% | C 1.1% | P 1.3%
EUR Eurozone IP w.d.a. YoY (SEP) A -1.7% | C -2.3% | P -2.8%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications A 9.6% | P -0.1%
USD CPI YoY (OCT) A 1.8% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
USD CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (OCT) A 2.3% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%
USD CPI MoM (OCT) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.0%
USD CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (OCT) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Real Average hourly Earnings YoY (OCT) A 1.2% | P 1.2% | R 1.3%
USD Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY (OCT) A 0.9% | P 0.9%
USD Powell Addresses Joint Economic Committee of Congress
USD Monthly Budget Statement (OCT) A -$134.5b | C -$128.2b | P 82.8b | R -$100.5b
NZD RBNZ Governor at Parliament4 select Committee on MPS

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