Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.652 | EURUSD 1.10194 | AUDUSD 0.67856 | NZDUSD 0.6405 | USDCAD 1.33012 | USDCHF 0.99731 | GBPUSD 1.28342 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10258 | 1.10169

USDJPY                108.802 | 108.651

GBPUSD              1.28565 | 1.28418

USDCHF               0.99820 | 0.99667

AUDUSD             0.67987 | 0.67867

USDCAD              1.33011 | 1.32900

NZDUSD              0.64267 | 0.64059

EURCHF               1.09995 | 1.09887

EURGBP              0.85802 | 0.85708

EURJPY                119.943 | 119.768

For Today

  • GBP: Opening a little stronger with recent polls showing a slight increase for the Conservatives, the market held around the 1.2850 level with minor movement around the opening level through to the grey hours, Topside offers congested on any attempt to the 1.3000 level however, a break through the 1.3020 area will see stops appearing and the market pushing higher with some congestion through to the 1.3100 level the market could struggle without strong impetus and reasoning, downside bids light through to the 1.2850 area with strong bids likely to hanging around the 1.2800 areas and strong congestion below.
  • JPY: Opening a little higher the market continued to rise through to the 108.75 level into the Tokyo session pushing through the level the market continued through to the 108.80 areas and then spent several hours trading around the 108.75 level through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 108.20 area before stronger bids are likely to appear on any push at the 108.00 area, some weak stops through the 107.80 level and a likely test through to the 107.50 areas with stronger bids along a trend line likely to slow the descent with stronger congestion through into the 107.00 level. Topside offers again around the 109.00 level are likely to be weak however, a push through is likely to see stronger offers reappearing and continuing through to the 109.50 level with stronger offers into this month’s highs.
  • AUD: The Oz moved from the slightly higher 0.6790 area dipping a little to make the lows around the 0.6787 level before starting a slow rise through to just below the 0.6800 areas before drifting slowly through several hours to the grey hours holding around the 0.6790 level, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Very quiet session with the market remaining stuck in the 1.1020 area with minor moves higher before slipping back towards the opening level for the move to the grey hours, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

CNY/USD:

No phase two US-China deal on the horizon, officials say – RTRS

HKD:

Hong Kong Democrats score landslide victory in local elections – Straits Times

NZD:

Slowdown not over yet, Government needs to do more – NZ Herald

EUR:

Lane says ECB policies are in good shape in current scenario – BBG

ZAR:

South Africa outlook to negative by S&P

AUD/CNY:

Australia probes spy claims by man who China calls fugitive – BBG

AUD:

Westpac review will examine boards role in governance failure – AFR

GBP:

UK’s Johnson offers up new Brexit promise for Christmas – RTRs

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

0900       EUR        German IFO Business Climate (NOV) C 95 | P 94.6

0900       EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (NOV) C 97.9 | P 97.8

0900       EUR        German IFO Expectations (NOV) C 92.5 | P 91.5

1200       MXN      Economic Activity IGAE YoY (SEP) C -0.6% | P -0.85%

2145       NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ (3Q) C 0.5%B | P 0.2%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow rise through the Asian session slowly pushing towards the 1.2930 as the market moved into the London session before dropping back through the opening around the 1.2910 level and continuing to test the 1.2865 areas before holding quietly through to the NYK session, NYK were steady sellers through the session testing lightly through to the 1.2825 area for the end of London before holding quietly through to the close just off those levels.
  • JPY: A limited day with the market moving off the early lows around the 108.57 area to test through to the 108.70 on the first of three moves towards the level however, once the highs were made the market started a steady drift through the Asian session to push though the lows into the grey hours, early London took the market back quickly to that 108.70 level for the second time and as with the first attempt the market dropped back quickly initially then slowly traded through to the NYK session testing below the 108.50 areas before starting a steady recovery through the NYK session eventually pushing above the 108.60 areas and a small gap to the 108.70 pushing through a little this time into the London close to test only a few pips higher before dropping back and holding around the 108.65 level through to the close.
  • AUD: A very limited session for the Oz moving off the opening around the 0.6785 area and testing steadily through the Tokyo opening to push the 0.6795 area before dropping back and holding around the opening level through to the London session, stronger buying entered the market and the high was set just through the 68 cents level before immediately dropping back to the 0.6790 level and after a pause dipping through to the 0.6785 opening area again, while there was a limited move higher again the market was unable to regain its highs and eventually slipped back to hold around the 0.6785 areas with light attempts towards the 0.6780 area.
  • EUR: A steady rise through to the Tokyo session pushing off the 1.1055 area and holding in Tokyo just below the 1.1065 level through to the grey hour in very quiet trading, the move into the London session saw the market pushing on a spike through to the 1.1085 area before then dropping back to make early lows around the 1.1050 level, only once London closed did the market actually move and the drop saw a small gap lower through to the 1.1040 level and then a slow drift through the session testing lightly through the 1.1020 level and the los made on the move to the close testing the 1.1015 areas.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

 

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (NOV P) A 49.5 | P 50.0

AUD       Australia PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) A 49.9 | P 50.0

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (NOV P) 49.5 | P 50.1 | R 50.8

JPY         National CPI YoY (OCT) A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

JPY         National CPI ex-fresh Food A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%

JPY         National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (OCT) A 0.7% | C 0.6% | P 0.5%

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) A 48.6 | P 48.4

EUR        German GDP n.s.a. YoY (3Q F) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%

EUR        German GDP w.d.a. YoY 3Q F) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%

EUR        ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt

EUR        Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV P) A 51.3 | C 52 | P 51.6

EUR        Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (NOV P) A 49.2 | C 49.3 | P 48.9

EUR        Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) A 43.8 | C 42.9 | P 42.1

EUR        Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (NOV P) A 50.3 | C 50.9 | P 50.6

EUR        Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) A 46.6 | C 46.4 | P 45.9

EUR        Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV P) A 51.5 | C 52.4 | P 52.2

GBP       Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (NOV P) A 48.3 | C 48.8 | P 49.6

GBP       Markit /CIPS UK Composite PMI (NOV P) A 48.5 | C 50.2 | P 50.0

GBP       Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV P) A 48.6 | C 50.0 | P 50.0

MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (NOV 15) A 0.68% | C 0.65% | P 0.16%

MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI YoY (NOV 15) A 3.10% | C 3.07% | P 3.03%

CAD       Retail Sales MoM (SEP) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

USD       Markit US Composite PMI (NOV P) A 51.9 | P 50.9

USD       Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) A 52.2 | C 51.4 | P 51.3

USD       Markit US Services PMI (NOV P) A 51.6 | C 51.4 | P 50.6

USD       U. of Mich Sentiment (NOV F) A 96.8 | C 95.7 | P 95.7

USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV 22) A 803 | P 806

 

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