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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: A slow rise from the opening pushing from the 1.3135 level to test to the 1.3150 areas only to hold for a long run to the grey hours around the 1.3145 level, topside offers into the sentimental levels and likely to continue slowing gains for the moment however, each push through the figure will see weak stops and the market struggling once beyond the 50-60 level and into the next big figure until 1.3400 comes into view and stronger offers, downside bids light through to the 1.3100 level with late comers possibly moving up into the area, a push through will see weak stops appearing on a move through the 1.3050 area and better bids then reappearing into the 1.3020-00 area before stronger stops start to appear.
JPY: Opening a little higher from Friday’s close and making the highs on the move into the Tokyo session to test lightly through the 108.65 level and then dropping back to the 108.55 area and then holding for a long run to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 109.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.20 areas with weakness through to strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
AUD: Opening lower around the 0.6835 areas and a weak attempt to fill the gap and then drifting through to the 0.6830 level in quiet trading to the grey hours, Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro saw the market holding just below the 1.1060 level through to the grey hours barely breaking the 1.1055 level. Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

Overnight News
CNY:
China’s unexpected export drop shows why it wants a trade deal BBG
HKD:
Protesters mount largest rally in six months BBG
KRW:
N. Korea conducted very important test at rocket site BBG
USD/MXN:
Mexico accepts US steel demands in USMCA with conditions RTRs
GBP:
Latest opinion polls see Conservatives stabilizing with a 10 point lead – Tel

Harry Hindsight

GBP: Holding quietly from the opening around the 1.3160 level the market struggled for direction dipping as low as the 1.3152 area and barely scraping above the 1.3162 level to hold through to the opening in London before rising to just above the 1.3165 area to make the high for the day and dropping back quickly as the poor numbers in Germany impacted and Cable dropping back quickly back to test the 1.3110 level before slowly recovering as the Euro dipped further, the move into the NYK session saw the market testing back through the 1.3130 level to hold through to the NYK Session before dipping to test the 1.3100 level and make the lows for the day bouncing off the level and eventually settling into the 1.3140 level run to the close.
JPY: Overall a steady slide lower through to the NYK session initially testing through the 108.70 levels and after a brief recovery sliding through the level before running into the London session and spiking a little to the opening levels before renewing the slide lower to testing through to the release of the NFP holding the 108.55 levels, initially dipping to the low of the day just through the 108.50 level to push quickly through to the 108.90 level topping out around the 108.92 before drifting lower through the balance of the session to test back to the 108.55 levels from the false dawn.
AUD: A steady rise from the opening around the 0.6830 areas pushing through to the grey hours testing the 0.6845 level and holding in the 40-45 levels through deep into the London session before rising through into the NYK session testing above the 0.6855 level on a spike before the NFP saw the market dropping back to the 0.6835 level bouncing and then running a second time to test through the 0.6825 to make the lows, the run to the close saw the market rising through to the 0.6840 level and holding quietly to the close.
EUR: Opening around the 1.1105 area and holding quietly all the way through the Asian session before testing the 1.1110 level and starting a slow drift lower as the market started to read into the German numbers and drifting off through to the 1.1090 level and the NFP and a quick drop through to the 1.1040 levels before bouncing and rising slowly through to the close holding the 1.1060 area.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (NOV) A 40.0 | P 43.9
JPY Labour Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) A 0.5% | C 0.2% | P 0.5%
JPY Overall Household Spending YoY (OCT) A -5.1% | C -3.2% | P 9.5%
JPY Real Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) A 0.1% | C -0.3% | P 0.2%
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a./w.d.a. A -5.3% | C -3.6% | P -4.3%
CAD Net Change in Employment (NOV) A -71.2k | C 10.0k | P -1.8k
CAD Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 5.9% | C 5.5% | P 5.5%
CAD Full Time Employment Change (NOV) A -38.4k | C 10.0k | P -16.1k
CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY (NOV) A 4.4% | C 4.5% | P 4.4%
USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV) A 266k | C 183k | P 128k | R 156k
USD Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 3.5% | C 3.6% | P 3.6%
USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (NOV) A 3.1% | C 3.0% | P 3.0%
USD Average Weekly Hours all Employees (NOV) A 34.4 | C 34.4 | P 34.4
USD Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) A 254k | C 179k | P 131k
USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC P) A 99.2 | C 97.0 | P 96.8
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (DEC 6) A 799 | C 797 | P 802
USD Consumer Credit (OCT) A 18.908b | C 16.000b | P 9.513b

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