Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.707 | EURUSD 1.10933 | AUDUSD 0.68439 | NZDUSD 0.65387 | USDCAD 1.32301 | USDCHF 0.98439 | GBPUSD 1.31557 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10958 | 1.10881
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.862 | 108.671
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31528 | 1.3108
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98491 | 0.9843
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68180 | 0.68051
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32388 | 1.3230
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65551 | 0.65226
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09221 | 1.09173
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84597 | 0.84306
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.719 | 120.536
For Today
- GBP: The reopening saw the collapse moving through to the 1.3110 level before finding some support and the market slowly moved through to the 1.3145 level in steady buying before holding through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3220 however, those offers are likely to be weak and not likely to thicken until around the 1.3250 area and stronger into 1.3300 with some light stops through the area with weakness likely to continue. Downside bids light into the 1.3100 areas with weak stops through the level but likely to be light and the move lower increases in bids through the 1.3050 area and likely to increase on a test through to the 1.3000 areas, of course this is all dependent on the ever reliable polls for Thursdays General election.
- JPY: USDJPY after dipping on the Cable move opened a touch higher and slowly pushed through to the 108.80 area spiking to the 108.85 area before slowly slipping lower into the Tokyo session with fixing supply hitting the 108.65 area before stabilizing around the 108.75 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 109.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.20 areas with weakness through to strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
- AUD: A slight dip to the 0.6805 area and basing on that line for much of the session before starting a slow rise towards the 0.6820 level through into the grey hours, Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro opening just above the 1.1090 area and the base for the market until late into the session slipping through lightly on the move into the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target. Downside bids through to the 1.1080 level with possibly some weak stops building in the area with congestion likely through to the 1.1060-40 area and stronger bids on any test towards the 1.1000 level.
Overnight News
GBP:
Cable falls into the close as projected Conservative seats show 30 majority and below last YouGov assessment
NZD:
NZ Government boosts spending, cuts budget surplus forecasts
NZ announces NZD12b extra spending, mostly on infrastructure
NZ Sees net debt rising to 21.5% of GDP in 2022
HKD:
International experts say quitting HK police protest probe
USD:
Pompeo hopes N. Korea abides by commitments
GBP:
UK’s Johnson on track to win modest majority – YouGov
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence (DEC) A -1.9% | P 4.5%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NZ half year Fiscal, Economic update
1200Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 6) P -9.2%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI YoY (NOV) C 2.0% | P 1.8%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (NOV) C 2.3% | P 2.3%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI MoM (NOV) C 0.2% | P 0.4%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (NOV) C 0.2% | P 0.2%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Real Avg. Hourly Earning YoY (NOV) P 1.2%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY (NOV) P 0.9%
1530Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 6) P -4856k
1900Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (lower band) (DEC 11) C 1.50% | P 1.50%
1900Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper band) (DEC 11) C 1.75% | P 1.75%
1900Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (DEC 12) C 1.55% | P 1.55%
1900Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) C -206.9b | P 134.5b
1930Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Powell Holds Post FOMC Meeting Press Conference
2350Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders YoY (OCT) C -1.7% | P 5.1%
Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: Dipping slightly on the opening the market tested through to the 1.3135 level before slowly pushing through to the 1.3150 level to hold quietly for a long run to the grey hours, London again tested lower and set the low for the day around the 1.3130 level before bouncing a little from the opening and pushing steadily through to the NYK session testing the 1.3190 level and then ranging quietly through to the 1.3175 area tightly before the close of the London session where stronger buying moved in and a test through the 1.3200 levels spiking to the 1.3215 area before sliding slowly towards the close. The latest YouGov poll shows the Tories ahead with expected 30 seat majority and down from previously sending the market spiralling quickly lower to test the 1.3150 in the final minutes of the day,
- JPY: A slow rise from the opening around the 108.55 levels and pushing lightly above the 108.65 area and then held just below the level in slow tight trading through to the grey hours testing lightly back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, the move into the London session testing the highs again before slipping a little to the 108.55 area again and slowly grinding slowly through the level but unable to test back through the 108.50 level, the move into the NYK session saw a good strong move through to the 108.75 area before dropping back almost as quickly and spending the run through the London close again pushing to the highs again and holding quietly to the close.
- AUD: Limited through the Asian session if not throughout the day, opening around the 0.6825 area the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session before slowly heading through to make the highs just above the 0.6835 area, the move through to the grey hours saw the market sagging again and dipping below the opening levels and the move into the London session saw the lows extended through to mid-morning holding the 0.6810 areas and after a slow period dipping towards the figure level for the move into the NYK session, the market recovered a little however, the rest of the day saw limited movement holding the 0.6810-15 areas through to the close.
- EUR: Rising slowly from the opening level around the 1.1065 area and pushing lightly above the 1.1070 level and holding quietly through to the London opening, London were a little stronger on the buy side with the market testing steadily through to the 1.1080 area and the move into the NYK session saw the market trading around the 1.1080 areas through to the London close before running higher again to test towards the 1.1100 area before holding through to the close in the 1.1090’s
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Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence (NOV) A 0 | P 2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI YoY (NOV) A 4.5% | C 4.3% | P 3.8%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI YoY (NOV) A -1.4% | C -1.5% | P -1.6%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â New Yuan Loans CNY (NOV) A 1390.0b | C 1200.0b | P 661.3b
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Aggregate Financing CNY (NOV) A 1750.0b | C 1470.0b | P 618.9b
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders YoY (NOV P) A -37.9% | P -37.4%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly GDP MoM (OCT) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P -0.1%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output YoY (OCT) A -2.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.5%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YoY (OCT) A -1.3% | C -1.2% | P -1.4%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production YoY (OCT) A -1.2% | C -1.4% | P -1.8%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly GDP (3M/3M) (OCT) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.3%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (OCT) A -5188m | C -2700m | P -3360m
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (OCT) A -5729m | C -3500m | P -4032m
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (OCT) A 14486m | C -11700m | P -12541m
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (DEC) A 11.2 | P -1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) A 10.7 | C 0 | P -2.1%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Survey Current Situation A -19.9 | C -22.1 | P -24.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva Speaks in Washington
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