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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: While the main stream media seem nervous with each side claiming a possible hung parliament, one supposes the proof will be in the pudding and the market generally has started to believe the Conservatives have it but with less of a majority, and the Cable moved higher from the opening and eventually tested to just below the 1.3230 level holding around the 1.3225 level before slipping slowly through to the 1.3215 for the move into the grey hours and hours from the opening and the continual run of exit polls through the day, One imagines that a day of volatility is possible, Topside offers light through to the 1.3250 level with light congestion continuing through to the 1.3300 level where offers are likely to be a little thicker however, any level is likely to be moot given what could come out of the news outlets, a push through 1.3300 level will see weak stops appearing and the market obviously favouring the Conservatives and the market likely lightly offers continuing, Downside bids light back through the 1.3200 level with some weak stops likely through the area and open for the most part through to stronger bids into 1.3100, again one has to be wary at this point that the market is already in full flight and depending on the news depends on how deep this could move.
JPY: Holding around the opening 108.55 area through to the Tokyo session before dipping on the opening through to the 108.45 area to reverse after a short period to push to just below the 108.60 areas and holding tightly in the area through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 109.00 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.20 areas with weakness through to strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
AUD: A slow drift from the opening saw the market dipping through the 0.6870 level for the move into the Tokyo session, moving into Tokyo the market recovered through to the highs from yesterday testing towards the 0.6890 level in quiet trading and slipping slowly to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 0.6890-0.6920 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6930 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6950 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6820-00 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6780-levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6780 level however, a push through to the 0.6770-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
EUR: Another quiet session with the market lifting off the opening 1.1130 level and slowly pushing through to the 1.1140 levels and holding just above the level through to the grey hours, Topside strong congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target. Downside bids through to the 1.1080 level with possibly some weak stops building in the area with congestion likely through to the 1.1060-40 area and stronger bids on any test towards the 1.1000 level.

Overnight News
AUD:
PM breaks silence on troubling haze from bushfires
JPY:
BoJ Deputy Governor warns of risks, signals easy policy bias
EUR:
Smooth talking Lagarde faces first ECB grilling
CAD/CNY:
Canadian view of China worsens as row drags into second year
USD:
FED reserve says will focus on low inflation, global economy
FED keeps policy interest rate steady at 1.5-1.75%

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Machine Orders YoY (OCT) A 0-6.1% | C -1.7% | P 5.1%
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) A 4.0% | P 4.0%
GBP RICS House Price Balance (NOV) A -12.0% | C -5.0% | P -6.0%
0700 EUR German Consumer Price Index YoY (NOV F) C 1.1% | 1.1%
0700 EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonized YoY (NOV F) C 1.2% | P 1.2%
0700 GBP UK General Election Polls open
0830 CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 12) C -0.75% | P -0.75%
1000 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (OCT) C -2.4% | P -1.7%
1200 MXN Industrial Production n.s.a. YoY (OCT) C -1.6% | P -1.8%
1245 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 12) C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 12) C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1245 EUR ECB Rate Decision (DEC 12) C 0.00% | P 0.00%
1330 CAD New Housing Price Index YoY (OCT) C 0.0% | P -0.1%
1330 EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks in Frankfurt after Policy Decision
1330 USD Continuing Claims (NOV 30) C 1678k | P 1693k
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 7) C 212k | P 203k
1730 CAD BoC Poloz gives speech in Toronto
2130 NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (NOV) P 52.6
2200 GBP UK General Election Polls Close
2350 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (4Q) C 6.0% | P 6.6%
2350 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (4Q) C 4 | P 2
2350 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) C 3 | P 5
2350 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (4Q) C 16 | P 21
2350 JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook (4Q) C 3 | P 1

Harry Hindsight

GBP: After the sudden drop into the close the market continued through to just below the 1.3110 level before bouncing a little and starting a slow climb through the Asian session as the polls seem to suggest a tightening between the two largest parties, the move through to the grey hours saw the market holding around the 1.3145 level before slowly dipping into the London opening to test towards the 1.3110 level again, a quick burst through to the 1.3150 areas before meandering around the level through to the NYK session before seeing another leg higher to push to the 1.3180 area to hold quietly through to the FOMC release before again pushing through to the 1.3200 level to make the highs just above the 1.3210 level before slipping a little to the close.
JPY: Light buying from the opening saw the market test to the 108.80 level before spiking through to the upper 108.80’s and then dropping back to the opening levels with fixing supply sending the market down to around the 108.65 area before slowly rising and holding the opening levels around the 108.75 area, the move into London saw the market rise 108.80 level then slipping slowly through to the previous lows again and holding quietly around the 108.65-70 area through to the FOMC, a not change release saw the usual fake move higher towards the 108.80 level before dropping quickly through to the 108.45 low to bounce and quietly run through to the close around the 108.55.
AUD: A slow rise through the day with the market opening just off the 0.6805 area lows to push quietly through the Asian session holding around the 0.6815 area before moving into the London session slowly pushing through to the 0.6835 level to hold for a brief period into the NYK session, NYK increased the buying and the market continued rising through to the 0.6865 level and holding quietly through to the FOMC release where the market rose steadily through to the 0.6890 areas before slipping a little into the close.
EUR: A very quiet Asian session with the market generally holding the opening 1.1090 area through to the London session before drifting off through to the NYK session testing through to the 1.1070 level before NYK came in and pushed the market back to the opening levels, then holding in a tight range through to the FOMC and the Euro quickly pushed through to the 1.1145 level before stopping and drifting to the close.

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