Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.564 | EURUSD 1.11725 | AUDUSD 0.69904 | NZDUSD 0.66875 | USDCAD 1.29845 | USDCHF 0.97122 | GBPUSD 1.3138 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11782 | 1.11647
USDJPY 108.622 | 108.005
GBPUSD 1.31596 | 1.31182
USDCHF 0.97166 | 0.96889
AUDUSD 0.69941 | 0.6959
USDCAD 1.29993 | 1.29774
NZDUSD 0.67001 | 0.68639
EURCHF 1.08527 | 1.08295
EURGBP 0.85133 | 0.84929
EURJPY 121.347 | 120.678
For Today
- GBP: Initially slowly pushing higher through the Tokyo opening to test the 1.3160 level then of course news that Baghdad Airport had seen military strikes and the US in the process of taking control of the area safe haven flows kicked in with WTI doing quick moves the Cable dipped from the highs to move to just below the 1.3120 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside limited bids into the 1.3100 level with weak stops possible on a dip through with stronger congestion likely on a test through to the 1.3050 level and stronger bids into 1.3000 with the market then opening to a deeper move. Topside offers light through to the 1.3200 level with some limited offers through to the 1.3220 area with possible light stops on a move through, with stronger offers likely to increase on a test through to the 1.3300 level with stops above.
- JPY: Early trading saw the market testing through to just above the 108.60 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and strong JPY buying moving into the market and the USDJPY dropping through to test the 108.00 area before settling into a limited range through to the grey hours, Downside stops likely on a move through the 107.80 area and the market then open to the 107.50 level with some congestion and an old trendline suggesting some support and better bids congested below through to the 107.00 level, Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 109.00 level before stronger offers start to appear with strong offers on any push through the 109.50 level.
- AUD: A strong JPY dominated the Oz with the market dropping back from the highs of the opening just above the 0.6990 area and then holding the 0.6980 area into the early Tokyo session before slowly drifting through to the grey hours to test the 0.6860 level, Topside offers from the 0.7000 area through to 0.7020 where strong offers are likely to appear and while that topside should see weak stops the offers are likely to absorb any buying and continue through to the 0.7060 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6920 area with stronger bids possible however, a push through the 0.6880 level will see strong stops appearing and the downside open to the stronger 0.6850 areas and congestive bids likely to support the market for the short term.
- EUR: The limited exception to the day with a tight range through out with a limited push towards the 1.1180 level then drifting through to the grey hours testing through the 1.1170 for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.
Overnight News
USD:
Pentagon confirms US killed Qasem Soleimani, top Iranian commander – AXS
US targeted 2 iran tied targets in Iraq, officials say – RTRs
US and Iran shift to open confrontation in Iraq – DJ
US ready to send more force to Iraq against Militia threat – BBG
US sees signs Iran or proxies may be planning more attacks – Pentagon Chief – HAA
Initial reports that the US has begun seizing full control of Baghdad Airport – TWT
Unredacted emails reveal order to withhold Ukraine aid came directly from President – IND
IRR/USD:
Iranian ForMin: Assassination of Soleimani is extremely dangerous and foolish escalation – TWT
ForMin: US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism – TWT
Iran’s Top security body to meet to discuss criminal attack killed Soleimani – Spokesman quoted by FARS
Former revolutionary guards chief Rezaei vows vigorous revenge against America for Soleimani killing – TWT
Iranian Leader Khamenei: Soleimani has gone to heaven praising his valour in a statement – State TV
Khamenei: Calls for 3 days of morning
Khamenei: Harsh revenge awaits criminals who killed Soleimani
AUD:
Australia wildfires end leader’s post-election honeymoon – BBG
USD/CNY:
China still mum despite Trump announcement of trade deal signing – TWT
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
0700 GBP Nationwide House Price n.s.a. YoY (DEC) C 1.4% | P 0.8%
0830 CHF PMI Manufacturing (DEC) C 48.8 | P 48.8
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (000’s) (DEC) C 3.5k | P -16.0k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Claims rate s.a. (DEC) C 5.0% | P 5.0%
0930 GBP Consumer Credit YoY (NOV) P 6.1%
0930 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (DEC) C 45.8 | P 45.3
0930 GBP Mortgage Approvals (NOV) C 64.4k | P 46.6k
0930 GBP Net Consumer Credit (NOV) C 1.0b | P 1.3b
0930 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (NOV) C 4.0b | P 4.3b
1300 EUR German CPI YoY (DEC P) C 1.4% | P 1.1%
1300 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (DEC P) C 1.4% | P 1.2%
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (DEC P) C 0.4% | P -0.8%
1300 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized MoM (DEC P) C 0.5% | P -0.8%
1500 USD ISM Employment (DEC) P 46.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing (DEC) C 49.0 | P 48.1
1500 USD Construction Spending MoM (NOV) C 0.3% | P -0.8%
1500 USD ISM Prices Paid (DEC) C 47.5 | P 46.7
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 3) P 805
1900 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (DEC 11)
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening a little lower from New Years eve close the market then initially filled the gap testing to just above the 1.3265 area before slowly drifting back to the 1.3250 level, the break through saw some strong selling as last years USD sellers reappeared as buyers into the New Year, the market dropped back to the 1.3200 area and then held around the level to push into the London session trading around the 1.3215 level in a narrow range, the markets move to the NYK session saw a slow but steady drift through to test just before the figure level before NYK opened and the market increased its losses pushing through to the 1.3150 level in the first couple of hours bouncing off the level to again test the 1.3200 level before dipping quickly through to hold the 1.3115 level this time and a slow push to the close.
- JPY: A choppy opening dropping from the 108.75 area to test towards the 108.60 level and then eventually settling into the 108.70 level for the move into the Tokyo session, a slow rise through deep into the London session saw the highs just above the 108.85 level before starting a slow drift through to the NYK session and renewed selling of USDJPY, increased tensions between the US and Iran saw safe haven flows moving into the market and the USDJPY dropped quickly back to the 108.20 level bouncing steadily back above the 108.50 level and a slow run to the close holding just above the level.
- AUD: As with USDJPY choppy in the first hour saw the market spike above the 0.7020 level before dropping back through to the 0.7005 area, early Tokyo saw the market holding quietly through to mid-session just below the 0.7020 area before slowly slipping lower through to the grey hours, the early London session saw limited movement with the market slowly rising back above the 70 cents level from the 0.6995 area before dipping in mid-morning to test through to pre NYK into the 0.6980’s with NYK opening helping the market back above the 70 cent level for the last time and the close of London saw the market testing a little through the 0.6980 level in a probe for weak stops before holding through to late in the session and early Sydney taking the market to above the 0.6990 for the close.
- EUR: Early buyers took the Euro through hinto the Tokyo session testing through the 1.1220 level however the market was unable to take any advantage and after several hours started to drift from the highs around the 1.1225 area to test steadily through to the 1.1200 area for the run into the grey hours, London saw some light buying before the USD started to outperform the rest of the market and the euro saw steady selling in steps through into the NYK session testing through to the 1.1180’s holding through to the US numbers before dropping through to the 1.1170 level and trading around that level through to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing A 51.5 | C 51.6 | P 51.8
USD Continuing Claims (DEC 21) A 1728k | P 1719k
USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 28) A 222k | C 222k | P 222k
CAD Canadian Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 50.4 | P 51.4
MXN Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (DEC) A 47.1 | P 48.0
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