Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.901 | EURUSD 1.11501 | AUDUSD 0.69052 | NZDUSD 0.66141 | USDCAD 1.30421 | USDCHF 0.96404 | GBPUSD 1.30382 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11581 | 1.11489
USDJPY 109.991 | 109.858
GBPUSD 1.30600 | 1.30377
USDCHF 0.96466 | 0.96373
AUDUSD 0.69186 | 0.69025
USDCAD 1.30446 | 1.30355
NZDUSD 0.66374 | 0.66142
EURCHF 1.07545 | 1.07475
EURGBP 0.85544 | 0.85434
EURJPY 122.712 | 122.51
For Today
- GBP: A little bit of strong buying from the reopening and the market testing through towards the 1.3060 on what looked like a single ticket large clip moving through in limited liquidity, the market absorbed the movement and then dipped back to the 1.3040 level for the move into Tokyo and a slow tight range through to midsession before slowly rising through towards the 1.3050 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids congested around the 1.2950 level and requires a forceful push to clear only to run into possibly stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, weak stops likely to appear on any break through the level with plenty of congestion likely at each sentimental level through to the 1.2765 area where any break out if there is to be one awaits. Topside offers still remain through the 1.3090-1.3100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the level and opening a quick return to at least the 1.3150 area before stronger offers start to appear on any attempt to push the 1.3200 area, and break here will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market then likely to increase into the 1.3300 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.90 level there was a little dip towards the 109.85 area before rallying sharply on the Tokyo opening to test towards the 110.00 level but unable to break the level and running back to the 109.90 area and possibly the GBP rally was actually GBPJPY ticket moving through, the market then held around the 109.90-95 level through to the grey hours with the tiny range narrowing again, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
- AUD: The Oz followed the JPY selling into the Tokyo opening before slowly drifting back from the early highs just short of the 0.6920 level to test back to the opening levels just above the 0.6900 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6850 with some congestion around the level and then continuing through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
- EUR: A very quiet session overall but doubly so for the Euro with the market rising from the opening 1.1150 level but unable to push from the 1.1160 area before settling back and holding around the opening levels to the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.
Overnight News
USD/CNY:
China’s market condition caveat on US against purchases adds to trade deal doubts – RTR’s
Dispute settlement mechanism in US/China phase 1 trade deal designed to be completed in about 90 days – Senior admin official
If US reimposes tariffs in an enforcement dispute, China cannot retaliate with tariffs of its own but can quiet agreement – SAO
China has not agreed to additional tariff reductions or eliminations as part of deal, but will need to issue waivers or adjustments to meet purchase commitments – SAO
In US-China Phase 1 trade deal, enforcement may end in “We Quit” NPW
US/China signed the trade deal, – DJ
Mnuchin: USMCA and US/China trade deal will add 50 to 70 basis points to US GDP – FOX
Mnuchin: Has data on Chinese subsides will address in phase 2 talks – FOX
Mnuchin: Will roll out progress in US/China talks in phases as work completed
USD:
Garbage points the way to improving US GDP Growth – BBG
FED districts: Economic activity continued to expand modestly – BBG
White House, Hopeful of Republican house majority, plans tax cut – BBG
NZD:
NZ Retail card spending unexpectedly fell in December – BBG
CNY:
Liu He: China 2019 growth projected to be above 6% – Xinhua
China, US trade ties return to normalcy, Yuan’s rise worth watching – Global Times
AUD:
Trump deal causes pain for Australian exporters – AFR
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Machine Orders YoY (NOV) A18% | C -5.4% | P -6.1%
GBP RICS House Price Balance (DEC) A -2.0% | C -8.0% | P -11.0%
AUD Home Loans Value MoM (NOV) A 1.8% | C 1.4% | P 2.1%
AUD Investor Loan Value MoM (NOV) A 2.2% | C 1.0% | P 1.5%
CNY New Home Prices MoM (DEC) A 0.35% | P 0.30%
0700 EUR German CPI YoY (DEC F) C 1.5% | P 1.5%
0700 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (DEC F) C 1.5% | P 1.5%
0930 GBP BoE Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Survey
1130 EUR Accounts of ECB’s Dec Meeting
1330 USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (DEC) C 0.3% | P 0.2%
1330 USD Continuing Claims (JAN4) P 1803k
1330 USD Export Price Index YoY (DEC) P -1.3%
1330 USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (DEC) C 0.1% | P 0.2%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 11) C 220k | P 214k
1330 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JAN) C 3.6 | P 0.3
1330 USD Retail Sales Control Group (DEC) C 0.3% | P 0.1%
1330 USD Retail Sales ex-Auto and Gas (DEC) C 0.4% | P 0.0%
1500 USD Business Inventories (NOV) C -0.1% | P 0.2%
1500 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JAN) C 74 | P 76
]2100 NZD Government 5-month Financial Statements
2100 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (NOV) P 32.5b
2130 NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (DEC) P 51.4
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Mixed day for the Cable with Asia starting a steady climb from the opening level and the minor dip in Tokyo to the 1.3015 level to test into the grey hours pushing lightly above the 1.3040 level London opened and a quick dip back to the 1.3000 level a bounce and then running again on the better inflationary news from the CPI release, initially sending the market down to the 1.2985 level before the market released a rate cut is a little irrelevant to the current GBP Levels, bouncing to the 1.3035 level and choppy as retail trend follows matched off against institutional buyers and the market moved off the 1.3000 level and slowly but steadily headed back to the 1.3035 level to finish the day just short of that level.
- JPY: A quiet session for the USDJPY overall with the market initially dipping on the realization that there will not be any reduction in tariffs until the second phase, dropping from the opening levels just above the 110.00 high levels and dropping quickly through to the Tokyo opening to test into the 109.80’s before bouncing as the penny dropped that the Chinese wouldn’t have signed if there was a significant issue at the present time, the market then held in a quiet range roughly basing around the 109.90 level before slipping through in early London to test the 109.80 levels again, the move into the NYK session saw some light buying of the USD and the market moving through to test the 110.00 level again however, it struggled with the level and dipped back to range around the 109.90 to the close.
- AUD: Oz saw a small dip through towards the 0.6890 area before ranging quietly through to London just managing to keep in touch with the 0.69 cents level for the London opening, London sold the market through to just above the 0.6880 level in a short move before slowly pushing through to the NYK session regaining the upper 0.6880’s and again on the opening in NYK the market sold to just below the 0.6880 level repeating the London opening as the market regained some composure, the move to the end of London saw the market run quickly through to the 0.6910 level before testing through to the 0.6915 areas and a slow drift holding onto the figure level for the close.
- EUR: A slow rise through the Asian session opening around the 1.1125 level and pushing gradually higher into the grey hours to test just above the 1.1135 level, London opening saw the markets dip a little before moving back to the 1.1130 level after the release of German numbers with generally a weaker number, midmorning saw the Euro rallying and pushing steadily through to the 1.1150 level and then raining around the level through to the close with a minor run to just above the 1.1160 area before holding the 1.1150 to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY Kuroda Speech at Branch Manager’s Meeting
JPY Machine Tool Orders YoY (DEC P) A -33.6% | P -37.9%
EUR German GDP n.s.a. YoY (2019) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 1.5%
EUR German Public Finances Balance-GDP ratio A 1.5% | C 1.2% | P 1.7%
GBP CPI YoY (DEC) A 1.3% | C 1.5% | P 1.5%
GBP Core CPI YoY (DEC) A 1.4% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
GBP CPIH YoY (DEC) A 1.4% | C 1.6% | P 1.6% | R 1.5%
GBP CPI MoM (DEC) A 0.00% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
GBP House Price Index (YoY) (NOV) A 2.2% | C 1.0% | P 0.7%
EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. YoY (NOV) A -1.5% | C -1.0% | P 2.2% | R 2.6%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 10) A 30.2% | P 13.5%
CAD Existing Home Sales MoM (DEC) A -0.9% | P 0.6%
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (JAN10) A -2549k | P 1164k
USD Fed Beige Book
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.