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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Opening slightly lower the day never improved but then it didn’t get any worse really basing for the most part along the 1.3000 level with a quiet range testing a little towards the 1.3010 area in early Tokyo, Downside bids congested around the 1.2950 level and requires a forceful push to clear only to run into possibly stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, weak stops likely to appear on any break through the level with plenty of congestion likely at each sentimental level through to the 1.2765 area where any break out if there is to be one awaits. Topside offers still remain through the 1.3090-1.3100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the level and opening a quick return to at least the 1.3150 area before stronger offers start to appear on any attempt to push the 1.3200 area, and break here will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market then likely to increase into the 1.3300 level.
• JPY: With a bank holiday in NYK the market in USDJPY saw very little movement opening a little lower and pushing through to the 110.20 areas and then holding quietly around the level through to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
• AUD: Pushing slowly from the low 0.6870’s to test above the 0.6880 level and ranging up to the 0.6885 level to hold quietly through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6850 with some congestion around the level and then continuing through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
• EUR: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.1090 level and pushing towards the 1.1100 area but never quiet getting there and holding around 1.1095 levels through to the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.

Overnight News
GBP/EUR:
Cracks appear in Britain’s EU talks over free trade – TEL
CNY:
China’s mystery virus could be far more widespread than officials say – Sciencealert
China suspected of cover up over Sars like virus – Times
China reports sharp rise in Coronavirus cases include two in Beijing and one in Shenzhen – APW
China Pneumonia cases soar past 200 with wider screening – BBG
China’s Xi faces new limits, at home and abroad – DJ
OIL:
Crude Oil Jumps on Libya export Blockage, Iraq disruptions – BBG
Libya’s Sarraj says oil squeeze shows rival wants no peace – BBG
USD:
Fed’s Harker says economy looking pretty good, set for 2% growth – BBG
EUR/USD:
Intel report warns US troops in German face possible imminent threat of attack – TWT

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP Rightmove House Prices YoY (JAN) A 2.7% | P 0.8%
CNY 1yr Loan Prime Rate (JAN) A 4.15% | C 4.10% | P 4.15%
CNY 5yr Loan Prime Rate (JAN) A 4.80% | C 4.80% | P 4.80%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (NOV F) A -8.2% | P -8.1%
1300 CHF IMF Releases World Economic Outlook update
1830 EUR ECB Pres. Lagarde Attends event in Brussels
2130 NZD Performance Services Index (DEC) P 53.3

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Asia saw limited movement in a quiet session, opening around the 1.3075 level and holding around the level, on occasions threatening the 1.3080 level and dipping to lightly break the 1.3070 levels through to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw stronger buying as the Government started to put indications of a more forceful negotiation with the EU in trade talks, only to be rebuffed and the rhetoric started, pushing through to the 1.3120 level the market dropped back quickly to test the 1.3050 areas and drift through to the 1.3030 into the NYK session, NYK were light buyers on the opening however, that just gave them a little more room to sell without being able to push through the 1.3000 level into the close.
• JPY: A very limited range for the JPY with the market opening around the 110.15 level and rising into the Tokyo fix to make the highs just short of the 110.30 level dropping back quickly to the opening levels once the fix was over, the move through to the London session saw the market regaining the 110.20 level and ranging around the level until London opening where the sellers moved in and steadily took the market to the 110.10 level and a tight range to the NYK session however, apart from setting the low around the 110.05 area the market remained in the 110.15 level to the close.
• AUD: Quiet day for the Oz with the market opening around the 69 cents levels and then drifting off into the Tokyo session to test into the 0.6885 area before recovering once the Tokyo fix was over the market then traded quietly through to the grey hours pushing back towards the 0.69 cents level and early London making the highs just beyond the 0.6910 level and holding in a tight range through to the NYK session, NYK were sellers from just before the opening and tested back to the 0.6990 level before continuing slowly through to the end of London to make the lows just above the 0.6870 area and never really recovering the loses.
• EUR: Euro’s quietly ranged through the Asian session pushing lightly above the 1.1140 level but remaining for the most part in the 1.1130 areas and moving through the into the London session holding the levels until the hour before NYK before dipping away in a steady decline through to test just below the 1.1090 area into the close in London and then holding the line through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Government 5-month Financial Statements
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (NOV) A $22.9b | P %32.5b
NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 49.3 | P 51.4
CNY GDP YoY (4Q) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
CNY GDP YTD YoY (4Q) A 6.1% | C 6.2% | P 6.2%
CNY GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.5%
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (DEC) A 5.4% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (DEC) A 6.9% | C 5.9% | P 6.2%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (DEC) A 5.7% | C 5.6% | P 5.6%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (DEC) A 9.9% | P 10.2%
CNY Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A 8.0% | C 7.9% | P 8.0%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (DEC) A 8.0% | C 8.0% | P 8.0%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (DEC) A 5.2% | P 5.1%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index MoM (NOV) A 1.3% | C 1.0% | P -4.6% | R -5.2%
GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY (DEC) A 0.7% | C 3.0% | P 0.8% | R 0.6%
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (DEC) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 1.0%
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (DEC F) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
USD Building Permits MoM (DEC) A -3.9% | C -1.5% | P 1.4%
USD Housing Starts MoM (DEC) A 16.9% | C 1.1% | P 3.2%
USD Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.1% | P 1.1% | R 0.8%
USD Manufacturing Production (DEC) A A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P 1.1% | R 1.0%
USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (JAN P) A 99.1 | C 99 | P 99.3
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 17) A 796 | P 781

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