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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Generally a quiet session with the market rising from the 1.3050 level to test towards the 1.3055 high before drifting through to late in the session to test the 1.3035 area before quickly recovering for the move into the grey hours and another test to the 1.3055 level again, Downside bids congested around the 1.2950 level and requires a forceful push to clear only to run into possibly stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, weak stops likely to appear on any break through the level with plenty of congestion likely at each sentimental level through to the 1.2765 area where any break out if there is to be one awaits. Topside offers still remain through the 1.3090-1.3100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the level and opening a quick return to at least the 1.3150 area before stronger offers start to appear on any attempt to push the 1.3200 area, and break here will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market then likely to increase into the 1.3300 level.
• JPY: A quiet push steadily through into early Tokyo to just below the 110.00 level from the opening around the 109.85 before popping a little higher to test the 110.10 on a spike before holding the 110.00 through to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
• AUD: Quiet opening before dipping from the highs around the 0.6848 area to test through to the 0.6825 area and an old trend line supporting the market and thus sending the Oz rallying back into the 0.6840’s in a steady move, the market then traded quietly through to the grey hours around the 0.6840 area. Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids a little stronger through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
• EUR: Very little movement saw the market drifting from the early highs around the 1.1086 area to push lightly through the 1.1080 area in early Tokyo, recovering if that is the right word to the opening levels around 1.1083 areas to the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.

Overnight News
USD/EUR:
Trump sees big trade deal with EU, repeats Auto tariff threat – BBG
USD:
Trump administration plans to name more countries for travel restrictions – DJ
First US case reported of deadly Wuhan Virus – DJ
GBP/EUR:
No deal Brexit is back as a real possibility – BBG
USD/GBP/EUR:
UK, Italy could face US tariffs over digital tax plans – Financial post
CNY:
China experts see possibility of Coronavirus mutation – Xinhua
AUD:
The Australian dream is dying in wildfires – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
0930 GBP Central Government NCR (DEC) P 9.6b
0930 GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (DEC) C 5.3b | P 5.6b
0930 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (DEC) P 9.9b
0930 GBP PSNB (DEC) C 4.6b | P 4.9b
1200 USD MBA Mortgage Applications P 30.2%
1330 CAD CPI YoY (DEC) C 2.3% | P 2.2%
1330 CAD CPI n.s.a. MoM (DEC) C 0.0% | P -0.1%
1330 CAD New Housing Price Index YoY (DEC) P 0.0%
1400 USD House Price Index MoM (NOV) C 0.3% | P 0.2%
1500 CAD BoC Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%
1500 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (DEC) C 1.5% | P -1.7%
1615 CAD BoC Poloz speaks to reporters after Rate Decision
2350 JPY Trade Balance (DEC) C -170.0b | P -82.1b

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3010 level the market drifted through into the Tokyo session testing just below the 1.3000 level and the lows for the day before moving through to the grey hours pushing through to the 1.3020 level, London were early sellers matching the early lows before the official opening and from that point it was all one way through to the NYK session pushing quickly to the highs and then continuing in a steady move through to the 1.3040 level before slowing a little on its move to the NYK session with the opening there pushing quickly from the 1.3050 level to spike to just short of the 1.3085 areas, the market drifted through to the close testing back to the 1.3050 level to range around the level too the close.
• JPY: Holding quietly around the opening 110.15 area the market managed to push lightly through the 110.20 areas before dropping quickly back on the Tokyo fix to test the 109.90 level before ranging quietly through to deep into the morning session in London moving between the 109.90-110.00 areas before starting a slow push higher through into the NYK session to test to the 110.10 level before running out of steam and dropping back quickly to the lows again and after pausing falling back again to the 109.75 areas, the market saw only slight gains on the run to the close.
• AUD: For the most part the Oz seems to be adrift with much of the movement through the day more to do with the strength in JPY dominating the Oz, dropping back from the highs around the 0.6880 level the market dipped through into the 0.6855 area before recovering and holding steady above the 0.6860 level through to the grey hours, early London sold the market off again testing through the 0.6850 level to the 0.6845 area before steadying and forcing its way higher through to early NYK testing towards the opening levels before drifting from the peak in the mid 0.6870’s to drift back to the 0.6845 level to hold quietly too the close.
• EUR: Trading quietly lower from the opening the market based around the 1.1095 areas through into the London session before slipping below the 1.1090 level and after a short pause ran higher as the USD weakened in early trading to test the 1.1110 level before running to the highs of the day just short of the 1.1120 area however, that was the last run for the Euro to the north and the market spent the rest of the session slowly drifting back to the 1.1090 and holding quietly to near the close and final sellers pushed the market to the 1.1080 level.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY 10yr Yield Target (JAN 21) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
JPY BoJ Rate Decision (JAN 21) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BoJ CPI Current Forecast +1 (1Q) A 1.0% | P 1.1%
JPY BoJ GDP Current Forecast (1Q) A 0.8% | P 0.6%
JPY BoJ GDP Current Forecast +1 (1Q) A 0.9% | P 0.7%
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (NOV) A 3.2% | C 3.1% | P 3.2%
GBP Claimant Count Rate (DEC) A 3.5% | P 3.5% | R 3.4%
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m (NOV) A 208k | C 109k | P 24k
GBP ILO Unemployment rate 3mths (NOV) A 3.8% | C 3.8% | P 3.8%
GBP Jobless Claims Change (DEC) A 14.9k | P 28.8ik | R 14.9k
GBP Weekly Earnings ex-bonus 3m/YoY (NOV) A 3.4% | C 3.4% | P 3.5%
EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (JAN) A 25.6 | P 11.2
EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (JAN) A 26.7 | C 15 | P 10.7
EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation (JAN) A -9.5 | C -13.5 | P -19.9
GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks on Panel of Davos
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JAN) A | P -1.9%

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