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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Drifting from a nervous opening the market tested through into the mid-teens before steadily recovering to the 1.3125 areas for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids building into the 1.3000 levels with limited congestion from current levels through to there weak stops through the level are likely to run into congestion on a dip to the 1.2950 area with stronger bids likely in that area, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 levels with strong offers likely in that area with weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 area and opening the market to a run to the 1.3300 level and stronger offers reappearing in the area.
• JPY: Early trading saw the highs testing towards the 109.60 level before drifting off to hold quietly in the Tokyo session around the 109.45 level and eventually forcing its way back to the mid 109.50’s for the move into the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
• AUD: A very quiet Asian session with early selling taking the market lightly through the 0.6840 level before recovering though to just above the 0.6850 on the Tokyo opening before ranging quietly in that range to move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids a little stronger through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
• EUR: As seems to be the normal for Asia a very quiet range for the Euro opening around the 1.1058 level and then slowly drifting through to the grey hours holding around the 1.1050 level, Downside bids into the 1.1060-40 levels with some weak stops likely on a dip through then stronger bids start to appear around the 1.1020 level increasing through to the 1.0980 area where stronger stops are likely to appear on a dip through with congestion limited through to the 1.0920 level. Topside offers into the 1.1100 area are likely to be light with stops through the 1.1120 level opening up only limited room with stronger offers appearing from the 1.1140 areas onwards.

Overnight News
AUD:
Six People in NSW and Queensland are being tested for the coronavirus – TWT
NZD:
RBNZ Core inflation gauge rises to 1.8% in fourth quarter – BBG
USD:
Coronavirus: NJ patient being evaluated for deadly China Virus – Detroit free press
CNY:
China’s coronavirus death toll rises to 25 – BBG
Total number of confirmed cases in China at 830 as of Jan 23 – BBG
8 cities in China now in lockdown
GBP:
Fourteen people in UK tested for coronavirus – SKY
Andrew Bailey, incoming BoE Governor: Britain badly prepared for market crash

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD CPI YoY (4Q) A 1.9% | C 1.8% | P 1.5%
NZD CPI QoQ (4Q) A 0.5% | C 0.4 | P 0.7%
AUD CBA PMI Composite (JAN P) A 48.6 | P 49.6
AUD CBA PMI Manufacturing (JAN P) A 49.1 | P 49.2
AUD CBA PMI Services (JAN P) A 48.9 | P 49.8
JPY National CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food YoY (DEC) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (DEC) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.8%
JPY BoJ Minutes of December Meeting (DEC)
JPY Nikkei PMI Manufacturing (JAN P) A 49.3 | P 48.4
NZD NZD Credit Card Spending YoY (DEC) A 3.4% | P 4.5%
0830 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN P) C 53.0 | P 52.9
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JAN P) C 50.5 | P 50.2
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) C 44.5 | P 43.7
0900 EUR ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JAN P) C 51.2 | P 50.9
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) C 46.8 | P 46.3
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN P) C 52.8 | P 52.8
0930 GBP Markit PMI Manufacturing s.a. (JAN P) C 48.7 | P 47.5
0930 GBP Markit/CiPS Composite PMI (JAN P) C 50.7 | P 49.3
0930 GBP Markit/CiPS Services PMI (JAN P) C 51.0 | P 50.0
1030 EUR WEF: Legarde, Zhu, Mnuchin, Scholz, Georgieva, Kuroda, Javid
1200 MXN Economic Activity IGAE YoY (NOV) C -0.8 | P -0.78%
1330 CAD Retail Sales MoM (NOV) C 0.9% | P -1.2%
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (JAN P) P 52.7
1445 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) C 52.5 | P 52.4
1445 USD Markit Services PMI (JAN P) C 52.5 | P 52.8
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 24) P 796

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Mixed day with limited range, opening around the 1.3145 level and testing through to just above the 1.3150 level to make the high for the day, before steadily drifting through the Asian session testing through to the 1.3120 level into the grey hours and basing along the level but unable to challenge the 1.3150 areas again, the move into the NYK session saw sellers appearing and the market testing the 1.3100 level however, apart from a brief spike through the level remained intact through to the London close before steadily climbing through to hold the 1.3120 level into the close.
• JPY: A steady drift through the day with the market opening g around the 109.90 level dipping on the move too the Tokyo session with a better trade balance testing through the 109.70 level, the market then traded slowly lower through the session to move into the grey hours and London basing along the 109.50 area and only broke lower once the NYK session stepped in, the market traded through the 109.30 level in steady trading to make the low for the day and then started a slow long recovery through to the close.
AUD: Opening around the 0.6845 area and drifting through into the Tokyo session to test the 0.6840 level before the release of the data, a strong unemployment rate saw the market rising quickly through to just the short of the 0.6880 level before holding around the 0.6870 areas through to late in Tokyo before breaking lower and back to the 0.6860 level for the move into the grey hours, early London were buyers chasing the market back towards the highs before holding through to early morning in NYK before sliding off and triggering weak stops on the move through the 0.6860 level again and testing to the 0.6830 area before finding stronger bids and a slow rise through to the close around the 0.6845 level and almost unchanged on the day.
• EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro opening around the 1.1090 level and dipping on the Oz numbers as EURAUD selling moved through to base the market along the 1.1080 areas and so it remained through to the NYK session with the market initially pushing higher after the Euro rate announcement then dropping back through to the high 1.1030’s before finding some reprieve and rising a little through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY Trade Balance (DEC) A -152.5b | C -170.0b | P -82.1b
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations A 4.7% | P 4.0%
AUD Employment Changes (DEC) A 28.9k | C 11.0k | P 39.9k
AUD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A 5.1% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
AUD Full Time Employment Change (DEC) A -0.3k | P 4.2k
JPY All Industry Activity Index MoM (NOV) A 0.9% | C 0.4% | P -4.3%
MXN CPI Bi-Weekly CPI (JAN 15) A 0.27% | C 0.24% | P 0.32%
MXN CPI Bi-Weekly CPI YoY (JAN 15) A 3.18% | C 3.16% | P 3.02%
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate A -0.5% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EUR Pres. Lagarde holds press Conference in Frankfurt
USD Continuing Claims (JAN 11) A 1750k | C 1750k | P 1767k
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 211k | C 215k | P 204k
EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (JAN A) A -8.1 | C -7.8 | P -8.1
USD Leading Index (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.2% | P 0.0%
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 17) A -405k | P -2549k

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