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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Drifting a little after opening around the Friday close, the market slowly pushed through to the 1.3050 levels before holding just above the level through into the grey hours with much of the action in other markets like the Gold, Downside bids building into the 1.3000 levels with limited congestion from current levels through to the weak stops through the level are likely to run into congestion on a dip to the 1.2950 area with stronger bids likely in that area, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 levels with strong offers likely in that area with weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 area and opening the market to a run to the 1.3300 level and stronger offers reappearing in the area.
• JPY: Opening lower the market initially pushed through to the 108.75 areas before recovering into the Tokyo session to range lightly around the 109.00 level and extending into the gap to test the 109.10 area lightly for the move into the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids cleared through the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
• AUD: Opening lower as equity markets in Asia suffered with the increasing concerns of Coronavirus spreading, dipping with weakness in USDJPY dragging on AUDJPY cross and then holding the 68 cents and forming a base through to the grey hours, bouncing for the Tokyo opening to the 0.8615 areas and slowly drifting back to the base line for the move into the grey hours, , Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids a little stronger through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
• EUR: Euro’s held better than the other pairs lightly pushing from the 1.1030 level with a dip on the Tokyo opening to make the lows around the 1.1025 level and then testing through to the 1.1035 area and the range set drifting back to hold just above the lows for the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.1060-40 levels with some weak stops likely on a dip through then stronger bids start to appear around the 1.1020 level increasing through to the 1.0980 area where stronger stops are likely to appear on a dip through with congestion limited through to the 1.0920 level. Topside offers into the 1.1100 area are likely to be light with stops through the 1.1120 level opening up only limited room with stronger offers appearing from the 1.1140 areas onwards.

Overnight News
CNY:
5million people left Wuhan before lockdown, may reveals, as 100 new confirmed cases – SMP
China death toll rises as NY holiday extended in virus war – BBG
Chinese Nurse: Pay attention to what I’m saying, 90,000 infected, in emotional plea for help- Forex crunch
Coronavirus is becoming more contagious and can infect during incubation, Chinese authorities warn – TEL
GBP:
UK to use high tariff threat to accelerate trade talks – Times
UK set to approve limited 5G role for Huawei – FT – TWT
NZD:
Population revision lifts jobs growth slightly – BBG
USD:
Scientist who simulated the global impact of coronavirus outbreak says the cats out of the bag – DJ
AUD:
RBA might be done cutting rates – DJ
EUR:
Low interest rates will be around for years, ECB’s Knot says – BBG

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market ranging in the 1.3115-25 level for most of the session with early lows just below the level and only breaking through the 1.3125 level with any conviction late into the grey hours to test towards the 1.3140 level, the move into the London session saw the market drifting through the 1.3150 level and peaking just above the 1.3170 level before dropping quickly after the PMI figures to hold around the 1.3100 level slowly pushing through to the 1.3080 for the move into the NYK session, a slight recovery was quickly swatted on weaker PMI Manufacturing number and the Cable was forced back to the make the lows just above the 1.3050 level and a slow run to the close rising and holding around the 1.3075 area.
• JPY: USDJPY was quiet for much of the day, opening around the 109.50 level and then ranging around the level through to London before it pushed lightly through to the 109.65 areas to hold into NYK, as NYK moved in the market slipped slowly lower through to the close testing the 109.20 level before holding the 109.30 area to the close.
• AUD: Tight range through the Asian session with the market holding for the most part in the 0.6840-50 area with early light penetrations of either level before heading into the London session to push through to the 0.6855 area to make the highs, eventually dipping from the highs the market held to deep into the NYK session before dropping to make the lows just below the 0.6820 level and a quiet range through to the close.
• EUR: A steady drift lower through the day with only one brief push higher, opening around the 1.1055 areas and slowly drifted through to the London session testing the low 1.1040’s before pushing higher from the London opening and quickly spiking to the 1.1060 level for the high of the day, the rally was short lived and dipped just as quickly through to the lows again and triggered a few minor stops to base through to the end of London holding just below the 1.1030 level before running to the 1.1020 areas before rising away through to the close just off the level.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD CPI YoY (4Q) A 1.9% | C 1.8% | P 1.5%
NZD CPI QoQ (4Q) A 0.5% | C 0.4 | P 0.7%
AUD CBA PMI Composite (JAN P) A 48.6 | P 49.6
AUD CBA PMI Manufacturing (JAN P) A 49.1 | P 49.2
AUD CBA PMI Services (JAN P) A 48.9 | P 49.8
JPY National CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food YoY (DEC) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (DEC) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.8%
JPY BoJ Minutes of December Meeting (DEC)
JPY Nikkei PMI Manufacturing (JAN P) A 49.3 | P 48.4
NZD NZD Credit Card Spending YoY (DEC) A 3.4% | P 4.5%
EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN P) A 54.2 | C 53.0 | P 52.9
EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JAN P) A 51.1 | C 50.5 | P 50.2
EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) A 45.2 | C 44.5 | P 43.7
EUR ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JAN P) A 50.9 | C 51.2 | P 50.9
EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) A 47.8 | C 46.8 | P 46.3
EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN P) A 52.2 | C 52.8 | P 52.8
GBP Markit PMI Manufacturing s.a. (JAN P) A 49.8 | C 48.7 | P 47.5
GBP Markit/CiPS Composite PMI (JAN P) A 52.4 | C 50.7 | P 49.3
GBP Markit/CiPS Services PMI (JAN P) A 52.9 | C 51.0 | P 50.0
EUR WEF: Legarde, Zhu, Mnuchin, Scholz, Georgieva, Kuroda, Javid
MXN Economic Activity IGAE YoY (NOV) A -1.2% | C -0.8 | P -0.78%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P -1.2%
USD Markit Composite PMI (JAN P) A 53.1 | P 52.7
USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (JAN P) A 51.7 | C 52.5 | P 52.4
USD Markit Services PMI (JAN P) A 53.2 | C 52.5 | P 52.8
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 24) A 676 | P 673

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