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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A tight quiet range with limited volumes moving through and a lack of news to stimulate the market. Trading lightly higher through into the Tokyo session the market pushed from the 1.3055 area through to lightly test above the 1.3065 area before holding for a short period and drifting back through to just below the opening levels, Downside bids building into the 1.3000 levels with limited congestion from current levels through to the weak stops through the level are likely to run into congestion on a dip to the 1.2950 area with stronger bids likely in that area, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 levels with strong offers likely in that area with weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 area and opening the market to a run to the 1.3300 level and stronger offers reappearing in the area.
• JPY: Moving off the 108.90 level the market rose to the Tokyo opening to test only to the 108.95 areas before trading narrowly into the Tokyo fix and some supply to quickly post the low into the 108.82 level and just as quickly recovering through to push gradually through the 109.00 level with a minor spike to the 109.05 areas before drifting and holding around the 109.00 level to the grey hours, Topside congestion into the 110.00 level but likely to be limited with stronger congestion into the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 110.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 111.00 level, downside congestion likely mixed with weak stops on a move through the 108.80 area however, any push through to the 108.50 area is likely to see stronger congestion from there onwards.
• AUD: Opening quietly around the 0.6760 area the market drifted through early Tokyo with the pressure of Yen buying for the fix forcing the AUD through the 0.6750 areas and finding a base through the first half of the session, the move through the final part saw the market returning to the opening levels in quiet trading. Topside offers light through to the 68 cents level with light congestion through to 0.6820 before weak stops appear for a retest to the 0.6840-60 area and slightly stronger offers beginning to reappear leading to strong offers on any push towards the 69 cents, downside bids into the current lows with a breach through the 0.6740 area is likely to see limited weakness dipping through to the 67 cents level and stronger bids appearing through to the 0.6680 areas.
• EUR: Moving quietly through into the Tokyo session saw the market rising a little on a push to the 1.1025 area before dipping back into the 1.1020 level and struggling for direction through to the grey hours, Downside bids likely to be strong into the 1.1000 level with option barriers likely and likely weakness through the 1.0980 levels and stops appearing if not option related sellers, opening a dip through to the 1.0950 level before stronger bids start to appear in the market, topside offers light through to the 1.1080 level with stronger offers beginning to build in the area with congestion through the 1.1100 areas and weak stops awaiting beyond the 1.1120 level for a run to the 1.1150 areas.

Overnight News
AUD:
Australia concerns with tourist impact of Viral outbreak
CNY:
Foreigners prepare to flee as China virus toll tops 100
NZD:
NZ PM set to announce Sep 19 General election
USD/CNY:
Trump offers China help as virus spreads

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD NAB Business Confidence (DEC) A -2 | P 0
1330 USD Durable Goods Orders (DEC P) C 0.90% | P -2.1%
1330 USD Durables Ex Transportation (DEC P) C 0.30% | P -0.10%
1400 USD S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (NOV) C 0.30% | P 0.43%
1400 USD S&P Case/Shiller Composite 20 YoY (NOV) C 2.40% | P 2.23%
1400 USD S&P Case/Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (NOV) P 3.34%
1500 USD Consumer Confidence Index (JAN) C 128.0 | P 126.5
1500 USD Conf. Board Present Situation (JAN) C 170

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet drift through the Asian session with the market dipping from the early highs around the 1.3080 level and recovering slightly from the 1.3060 level into the Tokyo opening only to start a slow drift through to the grey hours testing as low as the 1.3050 areas before starting a slow recovery into the grey hours, London were quick buyers from the opening taking it to just above the 1.3080 level before holding through early morning before renewing the move and pushing on a spike through the 1.3100 level to make the highs before drifting into the NYK session and sellers appearing on a dip back to the 1.3060 level, a slow drift through to the London close saw the lows of the day as the market tested the 1.3040 level before slowly recovering to the 1.3060 areas for the close.
• JPY: Opening lower as safe haven flows continued to move to the Yen, opening around the 109.00 level dropping back through to make the lows just above the 108.70 level before bouncing quickly on the move into the Tokyo opening recovering to the opening levels but struggling to make any meaningful gains, some limited selling before starting a slow push higher through midsession and testing through to the 109.10 level to range quietly through to the London session where sellers reappeared but could only take the market back to the 108.90 level and this formed the base for the balance of the day with the market running back and forth to 109.00 and the base.
• AUD: Australia day and the market opening a little lower around the 0.6815 area and dipping through the 68 cents and holding through to the grey hours, steady selling saw a gradual drift through to the 0.6770 level with the market holding through into the NYK session before starting another slow drift to hold just above the 0.6750 level in a slow long run to the close.
• EUR: A quiet 10 pip range for the most part through Asia with the market opening in what becomes the mid-range 1.1030 testing in the Tokyo opening to the 1.1025 area and then bouncing to test slightly through 1.1035 before resetting for the run to the grey hours around the opening level, London were quick buyers however, having again failed the topside the market dropped quickly back to the lows and the second move saw the market dropping quickly through to the 1.1015 area, light recovery through to the opening levels for the move into the NYK session however, the same as London a quick dip back and the lows were made just through the 1.1010 level before a long run to the close recovering only to the 1.1020 levels.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
EUR German IFO Business Climate (JAN) A 95.9 | C 97.0 | P 96.3
EUR German IFO Current Assessment (JAN) A 99.1 | C 99.1 | P 98.8
EUR German IFO Expectations (JAN) 92.9 | C 94.8 | P 93.8
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (DEC) A 46800 | C 44000 | P 43715
USD New Home Sales MoM (DEC) A -0.4% | C 1.60% | P 1.30%

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