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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Opening lower the market pushed off the early lows around the 1.3006 level to move gradually through to just above the 1.3020 level for the move into the Tokyo session making the highs in early trading to test the 1.3026 area before drifting through the balance of the session to the grey hours to hold the 1.3015 area, Downside bids remain into the 1.3000 levels with limited congestion from current levels through to the weak stops through the level are likely to run into congestion on a dip to the 1.2950 area with stronger bids likely in that area, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 levels with strong offers likely in that area with weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 area and opening the market to a run to the 1.3300 level and stronger offers reappearing in the area.
• JPY: A slow but steady drift through the session opening around the 109.05 area the market pushed through into the Tokyo session testing the 109.00 level and pushing slowly through and continuing its drift into the 108.85 level where the market held and slowly pushed back to the 108.90 area for the grey hours, Topside congestion into the 110.00 level but likely to be limited with stronger congestion into the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 110.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 111.00 level, downside congestion likely mixed with weak stops on a move through the 108.80 area however, any push through to the 108.50 area is likely to see stronger congestion from there onwards.
• AUD: JPY buying was the name of the game for the AUD opening around the 0.6750 area, testing back into the Tokyo session to push and rest on the 0.6740 level and into midsession to push to the low 0.6730 levels with bids continuing to hold the level through to the grey hours, downside bids continue to remain through to the 0.6700 area with possible option related interest in the area and strong stops likely on any dips through the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
• EUR: Another quiet day for the Euro with the market pushing from the opening around the 1.1010 level and then ranging around the 1.1015 through to the grey hours with the market barely pushing above the 1.1018 level. Downside bids cleared into the 1.1000 level however, option barriers remain likely and not until the market break through the 1.0980 levels will it likely disappear with stops likely appearing if not option related sellers, opening a dip through to the 1.0950 level before stronger bids start to appear in the market, topside offers light through to the 1.1080 level with stronger offers beginning to build in the area with congestion through the 1.1100 areas and weak stops awaiting beyond the 1.1120 level for a run to the 1.1150 areas.

Overnight News
USD:
US will keep tariffs on China even if Coronavirus starts hurting growth – CNBC
CNY:
Hubei reports 1032 more Coronavirus cases for JAN 29 – BBG
Businesses suspend Chinese operations amid Coronavirus fears – DJ
China now has more cases than it had of SARS – NYT
WHO:
WHO to mull emergency declaration as toll tops 130 – BBG
AUD:
Australia’s crippling drought posing bigger risks to gold mines – BBG
Coronavirus to hit Australian GDP – AFR

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Trade Balance (DEC) A 547m | C 100m | P -753m
NZD Trade Balance 12mth YTD (DEC) A -4309m | C -4725m | P -4816m
JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (DEC) A 1.79% | P 2.02%
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indicator (JAN) C 97.0 | P 96.4
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (000’s) C 5.0k | P 8.0k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Claims rate s.a. (JAN) C 5.00% | P 5.00%
1000 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (DEC) C 7.50% | P 7.50%
1200 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (JAN) C 435b | P 435b
1200 GBP BoE Rate (JAN 30) C 0.75% | P 0.75%
1230 GBP Carney speaks at press conference in London
1300 EUR German CPI YoY (JAN P) C 1.70% | P 1.50%
1300 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (JAN P) C 1.70% | P 1.50%
1300 EUR German CPI Index MoM (JAN P) C -0.60% | P 0.50%
1300 EUR German CPI Index EU Harmonized MoM (JAN P) C -0.70% | P 0.60%
1330 USD GDP Annualized QoQ (4Q A) C 2.1% | P 2.1%
1330 USD Continuing Claims (JAN 18) P 1731k
1330 USD Core PCE QoQ (4Q A) C 1.60% | P 2.10%
1330 USD Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A) C 1.80% | P 1.80%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 25) C 214k | P 211k
1330 USD Personal Consumption (4Q A) C 2.20% | P 3.20%
2330 JPY Jobless Rate (DEC) C 2.30% | P 2.20%
2350 JPY Industrial Production YoY (DEC P) C -3.60% | P -8.20%
2350 JPY Large Retailers Sales (DEC) C -2.50% | P 1.80%
2350 JPY Retail Trade YoY (DEC) C -1.70% | P -2.10%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A bit of a choppy day but contained in a fairly narrow range, opening just off the days highs the market drifted through into the Tokyo session before hitting the 1.3028 high then drifting lower through to the 1.3015 levels and slowly recovering through to the grey hours, a quick drop through to the 1.3010 level in the grey hours saw the market holding through into the London opening and then pushing higher on the release of the House price number to test back to the mid 1.3020’s and slowly back again for the move into the NYK session, NYK were sellers through to make the lows around the 1.2990 level bouncing quickly back above the 1.3010 areas and bouncing around too the London close before slowly rallying through to late in the day to test the opening levels and a dip back before going out just below the opening levels.
• JPY: A very narrow range for the USDJPY with the market basing on the 109.00 level through to the close, early buying saw the market test to the highs just above the 109.25 level and then instantly drop on early Tokyo sellers and trading around the 109.10 level deep into the Tokyo session before rising back to the 109.20 level and holding through to close to the grey hours before drifting for the move into the London opening testing back to the 109.05 areas, a weak recovery saw the market testing for the first time to the 109.00 area and a slow rise through into the NYK session again pushing towards the 109.20 levels, a dip in midsession NYK saw the market rally quickly off the lows with a light test through the 109.00 level and a slow push again towards the highs before dropping quickly back to the 109.00 level for a slow move through to the close.
• AUD: Slipping a little from the opening the market tested to the Asian lows around the 0.6750 level, the move into the Tokyo session saw a slow rise from the downside support pushing lightly through the 0.6770 and then pausing for a couple of hours before rising and taking the market to just short of the 0.6780 level before running out of steam and drifting through to the grey hours, further selling appeared and the market was again pushing into the London session testing the 0.6750 area, London slowly sold the market lower pushing it through the 0.6750 area and continuing through into the NYK session pushing for the 0.6740 area however, having dipped likely through the level the market struggled eventually slowly moving off the lows in the 0.6735 area grinding back to the 0.6750 level and triggering weak stops on a move through the level to spike to above the 0.6760 area before drifting around the 0.6750 level to the close.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1020 areas the market struggled for direction through into the Tokyo session making the highs on the move through the Tokyo fix before drifting through the session from that high just above the 1.1025 level to slip into the grey hours holding the 1.1010 level, dropping quickly into the London opening the market struggled with the 1.1000 level initially, dipping eventually through to the 1.0995 level for the first time before running to the NYK session holding around the 1.1000 area, NYK join the fray and extended the lows however, the 1.0990 level held and the market eventually rallied quickly off the low to the 1.1010 level as the downside hunters took back their shorts to run the market to the US rate release, the market jumped to the 1.1020 level on the release before dropping back for the move to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD CPI YoY A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%
AUD CPI QoQ (4Q) A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
AUD CPI Index RBA Trimmed means QoQ A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
AUD CPI Index RBA Weighted Median QoQ (4Q) A 1.30% | C 1.20% | P 1.30%
JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JAN) A 39.1 | C 39.5 | P 39.1
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB) A 9.9 | C 9.6 | P 9.6
GBP Nationwide House PX n.s.a. YoY (JAN) A 1.90% | C 1.50% | P 1.40%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 24) A 7.2% | P -1.2%
USD Advance Goods Trade Balance (DEC) A -68.3b | C -65.5b | P -63.2b
USD Wholesale Inventories MoM (DEC P) A -0.1% | P -0.1%
USD Pending Home Sales YoY (DEC) A 6.8% | P 5.6%
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 24) A 3548k | C 259k | P -405k
USD FOMC Rate Decision (lower band) (JAN 29) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper band) (JAN 29) A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
USD Interest rate on Excess reserves (JAN 30) A 1.60% | C 1.55% | P 1.55%
USD Powell holds post FOMC meeting press conference

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