Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.36 | EURUSD 1.10951 | AUDUSD 0.66876 | NZDUSD 0.64644 | USDCAD 1.32349 | USDCHF 0.96349 | GBPUSD 1.32058

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10948 | 1.10804

USDJPY                 108.579 | 108.328

GBPUSD               1.31842 | 1.31557

USDCHF               0.96459 | 0.96291

AUDUSD              0.67041 | 0.66847

USDCAD               1.32496 | 1.32388

NZDUSD               0.64748 | 0.6453

EURCHF               1.06905 | 1.06777

EURGBP               0.84228 | 0.84085

EURJPY                 120.330 | 120.069

 

 

For Today

  • GBP: Weekend comments from Johnson and ongoing EU negotiations saw the Cable opening some 20 pips adrift of the close on Friday, opening around the 1.3180 areas saw the market holding quietly around the 1.3175-80 area the market then slowly dipped off through to the 1.3155 area late in the session before rising slightly to move into the grey hours above the 1.3160 area, Topside offers light through the 1.3200 level with limited congestion through to the 1.3220 area before opening the market to the 1.3250 area and stronger congestion likely to increase through the level for the move into the 1.3300 areas with any push through the level possibly opening the market to a stronger move with very little congestive areas apart from the sentimental levels, downside bids light back through to the 1.3100 area where limited bids are likely to appear through to the 1.3080 area, weak stops on a dip through and the market is likely to see weakness through there to the 1.3000 level.
  • JPY: Opening a little higher in line with GBPJPY movement saw the market dip to fill the gap before starting a slow rise from the opening 108.35 area lows to push through to the 108.55 levels into the Tokyo session, the market held around the 108.50 area through to the grey hours, Topside congestion into the 110.00 level but likely to be limited with stronger congestion into the  110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 110.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 111.00 level, downside congestion through to the 108.00 levels with weak stops likely to be through the 107.80 areas and opening a deeper move through to the 106.00 level over time however, there will obviously be the normal congestive areas around the 00/20, 40/60, 80,00 to slow any sudden moves for the moment.
  • AUD: A very quiet Asian session for the Oz with the market opening in midrange and dipping through to the 0.6685 areas to hold through the session, the move into the Tokyo session saw light AUDJPY buying and helping the market move through to test through the 67 cents level testing to the 0.6705 area only to dip quickly to the lows of 0.6684 level before returning to test the 67 cents level for the move into the grey hours, downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
  • EUR: Opening in line with Fridays close the market drifted a little in early trading to test through into the Tokyo session basing on the 1.1080 level for a quiet range through the balance of the day holding the 1.1080-85 areas to the grey hours, Downside bids cleared into the 1.1000 level however,  option barriers remain likely and not until the market break through the 1.0980 levels will it likely disappear with stops likely appearing if not option related sellers, opening a dip through to the 1.0950 level before stronger bids start to appear in the market, topside offers light through to the 1.1080 level with stronger offers beginning to build in the area with congestion through the 1.1100 areas and weak stops awaiting beyond the 1.1120 level for a run to the 1.1150 areas.

 

Overnight News

HKD:

Mulling ways to limit people entering from China – BBG

CNY:

Coronavirus scientists identify possible new mode of transmission -Lancet

China reports bird flu outbreak near epicentre of Coronavirus – NYP

China moves to limit short selling as virus looms over market reopening

Apple to halt China operations as outbreak widens – BBG

GBP:

GBP lower amid report Johnson willing to walk away from EU talks – BBG

CHF:

SNB Pulls trick last used during the crisis – BBG

NZD:

Treasury expects economic growth to ease early 2020 – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 45.4 | P 48.3

AUD       TD Securities Inflation YoY (JAN) A 1.8% | P 1.4%

AUD       Building Approvals YoY (DEC) A 2.7% | C -1.4% | P -2.8%

CNY        Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (JAN) A 51.1 | C 51 | P 51.5

0830       CHF        PMI Manufacturing (JAN) C 50.3 | P 50.2

1430       CAD       RBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN) P 50.4

1500       USD       ISM Employment (JAN) P 45.1

1500       USD       ISM Manufacturing (JAN) C 48.5 | P 47.2

1500       USD       Construction Spending MoM (DEC) C 0.5% | P 0.6%

1500       USD       ISM Prices Paid (JAN) C 51.5 | P 51.7

1800       EUR        ECB Pres. Lagarde attends reception in Frankfurt

2145       NZD       Building Permits MoM (DEC)

2350       JPY         Monetary Base YoY (JAN) P 3.2%

2350       JPY         Monetary Base End of Period (JAN) P 518.2t

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: The market opened just off the days lows rising from the 1.8085 area and pushing through to hold around the 1.3100 level through into the grey hours, early London were strong buyers and the market started a push through to the 1.3140 level before holding for a brief period before drifting back to the figure area again through too late in the morning, from there though the market started a steady rise and pushed through into the NYK breaking the 1.3150 area and after a brief pause a quick rise through to the 1.3180 levels before slowing and grinding slowly through to the 1.3200 level, the offers were eventually eroded and the market pushed through to close around the 1.3210 area after a day of optimism as the UK finally left the EU.
  • JPY: Early Tokyo saw the market rising from the early lows around the 108.90 area and pushing gradually through to the 109.10 areas before holding quietly in a tight range through into the London session, a slow steady drift through to the NYK session saw the market pushing into the NYK session testing through the lows and once through the market triggered sufficient sellers to test quickly through to the 108.30 level and into stronger bids holding the market around the level through to the close of the market.
  • AUD: A tight range through the Asian session saw the market chopping around as the market continually attempted to dip to the 67 cents levels however, each dip was met with a rise with the initial dip testing to the 0.6705 level and quickly rising to the high of the day around the 0.6730 area before again testing this time to the 0.6710 area and the bounce to the 0.6720 level and so it continued through to the London session, with the market quickly pushing through and testing to the low 0.6680’s, the market then ran through to the NYK session recovering the 67 cents level before drifting between there and 0.6690 through for a long run to the close.
  • EUR: A slow drift through the session with the market moving into the grey hours testing just through to the 1.1020 levels from the openings around the 1.1030’s, London did very little and it wasn’t until moving into the NYK session pushing gradually higher as the Cable moved higher through to the end of London testing the 1.1060 level with some weak stops appearing and testing to the 1.1090 level and just off the final 1.1095 areas the high for the day.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Jobless Rate (DEC) A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.20%

JPY         Industrial Production YoY (DEC P) A -3.00% | C -3.60% | P -8.20%

JPY         Large Retailers Sales (DEC) A 3.00% | C -2.50% | P 1.80%

JPY         Retail Trade YoY (DEC) A -2.60% | C -1.70% | P -2.10%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence (JAN) A -9 | C -9 | P -11

AUD       Private Sector Credit YoY (DEC) A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%

CNY        Manufacturing PMI A 50 | C 50 | P 50.2

CNY        Composite PMI (JAN) A 53 | P 53.4

CNY        Non-Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 54.1 | C 53 | P 53.5

JPY         Construction Orders YoY (DEC) A 21.4% | P -1.2%

JPY         Housing Starts YoY (DEC) A -7.9% | C -11.80% | P -12.7%

EUR        Germany Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s

EUR        French GDP YoY (4Q P) A 0.8% | C 1.20% | P 1.40%

EUR        German Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A 0.8% | C 4.50% | P 2.80%

CHF        Retail Sales Real YoY (DEC) A 0.1% | P 0.0% | R 0.5%

EUR        Italian GDP w.d.a. YoY (4Q P) A 0.0% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

EUR        Italian GDP w.d.a QoQ (4Q P) A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

GBP       Consumer Credit YoY (DEC) A 6.1% | P 5.7%

GBP       Mortgage Approvals (DEC) A 67.24k | C 65.6k | P 65.0k | R 65.51k

GBP       Net Consumer Credit (DEC) A 1.2b | C 0.9b | P 0.6b | R 0.7b

GBP       Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC) A 4.6b | C 4.1b | P 4.1b | R 4.2b

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY (JAN P) A 1.1% | C 1.20% | P 1.30%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%

EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (4Q A) A 1.0% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%

EUR        Eurozone CPI MoM (JAN P) A -1.00% | C -0.90% | P 0.30%

EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q A) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

CAD       GDP YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | P 1.2%

CAD       GDP MoM (NOV) A 0.1% | P -0.1%

USD       PCE Core YoY (DEC) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%

USD       Employment Cost Index (4Q) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%

USD       PCE Core MoM (DEC) A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       Personal Income (DEC) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%

USD       Personal Spending (DEC) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%

USD       Real Personal Spending (DEC) A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%

USD       Chicago Purchasing Manager (JAN) A 42.9 | C 48.9 | P 48.9

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment (JAN F) A 99.8 | C 99.1 | P 99.1

USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 31) A 7990 | P 794

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.