Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.36 | EURUSD 1.10951 | AUDUSD 0.66876 | NZDUSD 0.64644 | USDCAD 1.32349 | USDCHF 0.96349 | GBPUSD 1.32058
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10948 | 1.10804
USDJPY 108.579 | 108.328
GBPUSD 1.31842 | 1.31557
USDCHF 0.96459 | 0.96291
AUDUSD 0.67041 | 0.66847
USDCAD 1.32496 | 1.32388
NZDUSD 0.64748 | 0.6453
EURCHF 1.06905 | 1.06777
EURGBP 0.84228 | 0.84085
EURJPY 120.330 | 120.069
For Today
- GBP: Weekend comments from Johnson and ongoing EU negotiations saw the Cable opening some 20 pips adrift of the close on Friday, opening around the 1.3180 areas saw the market holding quietly around the 1.3175-80 area the market then slowly dipped off through to the 1.3155 area late in the session before rising slightly to move into the grey hours above the 1.3160 area, Topside offers light through the 1.3200 level with limited congestion through to the 1.3220 area before opening the market to the 1.3250 area and stronger congestion likely to increase through the level for the move into the 1.3300 areas with any push through the level possibly opening the market to a stronger move with very little congestive areas apart from the sentimental levels, downside bids light back through to the 1.3100 area where limited bids are likely to appear through to the 1.3080 area, weak stops on a dip through and the market is likely to see weakness through there to the 1.3000 level.
- JPY: Opening a little higher in line with GBPJPY movement saw the market dip to fill the gap before starting a slow rise from the opening 108.35 area lows to push through to the 108.55 levels into the Tokyo session, the market held around the 108.50 area through to the grey hours, Topside congestion into the 110.00 level but likely to be limited with stronger congestion into the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 110.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 111.00 level, downside congestion through to the 108.00 levels with weak stops likely to be through the 107.80 areas and opening a deeper move through to the 106.00 level over time however, there will obviously be the normal congestive areas around the 00/20, 40/60, 80,00 to slow any sudden moves for the moment.
- AUD: A very quiet Asian session for the Oz with the market opening in midrange and dipping through to the 0.6685 areas to hold through the session, the move into the Tokyo session saw light AUDJPY buying and helping the market move through to test through the 67 cents level testing to the 0.6705 area only to dip quickly to the lows of 0.6684 level before returning to test the 67 cents level for the move into the grey hours, downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
- EUR: Opening in line with Fridays close the market drifted a little in early trading to test through into the Tokyo session basing on the 1.1080 level for a quiet range through the balance of the day holding the 1.1080-85 areas to the grey hours, Downside bids cleared into the 1.1000 level however, option barriers remain likely and not until the market break through the 1.0980 levels will it likely disappear with stops likely appearing if not option related sellers, opening a dip through to the 1.0950 level before stronger bids start to appear in the market, topside offers light through to the 1.1080 level with stronger offers beginning to build in the area with congestion through the 1.1100 areas and weak stops awaiting beyond the 1.1120 level for a run to the 1.1150 areas.
Overnight News
HKD:
Mulling ways to limit people entering from China – BBG
CNY:
Coronavirus scientists identify possible new mode of transmission -Lancet
China reports bird flu outbreak near epicentre of Coronavirus – NYP
China moves to limit short selling as virus looms over market reopening
Apple to halt China operations as outbreak widens – BBG
GBP:
GBP lower amid report Johnson willing to walk away from EU talks – BBG
CHF:
SNB Pulls trick last used during the crisis – BBG
NZD:
Treasury expects economic growth to ease early 2020 – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 45.4 | P 48.3
AUD TD Securities Inflation YoY (JAN) A 1.8% | P 1.4%
AUD Building Approvals YoY (DEC) A 2.7% | C -1.4% | P -2.8%
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (JAN) A 51.1 | C 51 | P 51.5
0830 CHF PMI Manufacturing (JAN) C 50.3 | P 50.2
1430 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN) P 50.4
1500 USD ISM Employment (JAN) P 45.1
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN) C 48.5 | P 47.2
1500 USD Construction Spending MoM (DEC) C 0.5% | P 0.6%
1500 USD ISM Prices Paid (JAN) C 51.5 | P 51.7
1800 EUR ECB Pres. Lagarde attends reception in Frankfurt
2145 NZD Building Permits MoM (DEC)
2350 JPY Monetary Base YoY (JAN) P 3.2%
2350 JPY Monetary Base End of Period (JAN) P 518.2t
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: The market opened just off the days lows rising from the 1.8085 area and pushing through to hold around the 1.3100 level through into the grey hours, early London were strong buyers and the market started a push through to the 1.3140 level before holding for a brief period before drifting back to the figure area again through too late in the morning, from there though the market started a steady rise and pushed through into the NYK breaking the 1.3150 area and after a brief pause a quick rise through to the 1.3180 levels before slowing and grinding slowly through to the 1.3200 level, the offers were eventually eroded and the market pushed through to close around the 1.3210 area after a day of optimism as the UK finally left the EU.
- JPY: Early Tokyo saw the market rising from the early lows around the 108.90 area and pushing gradually through to the 109.10 areas before holding quietly in a tight range through into the London session, a slow steady drift through to the NYK session saw the market pushing into the NYK session testing through the lows and once through the market triggered sufficient sellers to test quickly through to the 108.30 level and into stronger bids holding the market around the level through to the close of the market.
- AUD: A tight range through the Asian session saw the market chopping around as the market continually attempted to dip to the 67 cents levels however, each dip was met with a rise with the initial dip testing to the 0.6705 level and quickly rising to the high of the day around the 0.6730 area before again testing this time to the 0.6710 area and the bounce to the 0.6720 level and so it continued through to the London session, with the market quickly pushing through and testing to the low 0.6680’s, the market then ran through to the NYK session recovering the 67 cents level before drifting between there and 0.6690 through for a long run to the close.
- EUR: A slow drift through the session with the market moving into the grey hours testing just through to the 1.1020 levels from the openings around the 1.1030’s, London did very little and it wasn’t until moving into the NYK session pushing gradually higher as the Cable moved higher through to the end of London testing the 1.1060 level with some weak stops appearing and testing to the 1.1090 level and just off the final 1.1095 areas the high for the day.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPY Jobless Rate (DEC) A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.20%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (DEC P) A -3.00% | C -3.60% | P -8.20%
JPY Large Retailers Sales (DEC) A 3.00% | C -2.50% | P 1.80%
JPY Retail Trade YoY (DEC) A -2.60% | C -1.70% | P -2.10%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (JAN) A -9 | C -9 | P -11
AUD Private Sector Credit YoY (DEC) A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%
CNY Manufacturing PMI A 50 | C 50 | P 50.2
CNY Composite PMI (JAN) A 53 | P 53.4
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 54.1 | C 53 | P 53.5
JPY Construction Orders YoY (DEC) A 21.4% | P -1.2%
JPY Housing Starts YoY (DEC) A -7.9% | C -11.80% | P -12.7%
EUR Germany Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s
EUR French GDP YoY (4Q P) A 0.8% | C 1.20% | P 1.40%
EUR German Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A 0.8% | C 4.50% | P 2.80%
CHF Retail Sales Real YoY (DEC) A 0.1% | P 0.0% | R 0.5%
EUR Italian GDP w.d.a. YoY (4Q P) A 0.0% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EUR Italian GDP w.d.a QoQ (4Q P) A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBP Consumer Credit YoY (DEC) A 6.1% | P 5.7%
GBP Mortgage Approvals (DEC) A 67.24k | C 65.6k | P 65.0k | R 65.51k
GBP Net Consumer Credit (DEC) A 1.2b | C 0.9b | P 0.6b | R 0.7b
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC) A 4.6b | C 4.1b | P 4.1b | R 4.2b
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (JAN P) A 1.1% | C 1.20% | P 1.30%
EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%
EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (4Q A) A 1.0% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (JAN P) A -1.00% | C -0.90% | P 0.30%
EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q A) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CAD GDP YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | P 1.2%
CAD GDP MoM (NOV) A 0.1% | P -0.1%
USD PCE Core YoY (DEC) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
USD Employment Cost Index (4Q) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
USD PCE Core MoM (DEC) A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USD Personal Income (DEC) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USD Personal Spending (DEC) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
USD Real Personal Spending (DEC) A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JAN) A 42.9 | C 48.9 | P 48.9
USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (JAN F) A 99.8 | C 99.1 | P 99.1
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN 31) A 7990 | P 794
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