Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.829 | EURUSD 1.0840 | AUDUSD 0.67193 | NZDUSD 0.64418 | USDCAD 1.32672 | USDCHF 0.97951 | GBPUSD 1.30416

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08443 | 1.08273

USDJPY                 109.901 | 109.734

GBPUSD               1.30519 | 1.30371

USDCHF               0.98018 | 0.97896

AUDUSD              0.67309 | 0.67106

USDCAD               1.32696 | 1.32562

NZDUSD               0.64416 | 0.6433

EURCHF               1.06199 | 1.06064

EURGBP               0.83130 | 0.83013

EURJPY                 119.096 | 118.867

 

 

For Today

  • GBP: There was me thinking yesterday was quiet however, today has it beat, opening around the 1.3040 area and then ranging around the 1.3045 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers likely into the 1.3100 level with congestion then following through to the 1.3150 area, limited stops possible with congestion likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 1.3200 area with weak and breakout stops likely on a move through the 1.3220 area to open the market to the mid 1.32’s from the beginning of the year, Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 levels possible weak stops along the way however stronger congestion then appears on a dip through the 1.2950 level and increasing into the 1.2900 area.
  • JPY: Opening in what would become mid-range the market opened around the 109.80 areas and dipped into the Tokyo session making the early low around the 109.74 level before slowly moving higher over the net few hours in two waves to push lightly through the 109.90 level before drifting back for the move into the grey hours holding the 109.80 area. Topside offers likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 area and opening up limited room through to the 110.50 and increasing resistance as the market approaches the 111.00 areas, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area with limited support and weak stops likely to be light for a move back to the stronger 108.50 area with good support likely to appear on any dips to the 108.00 levels.
  • AUD: Dipping in early trading through to the 0.6710 level at a little bit of a stretch to the lows, early Tokyo bought the market back to the opening levels and then after a minor dip ran steadily through to the 0.6730 area for the high of the day before drifting in the final couple of hours through to the grey hours back towards the opening levels just below the 0.6720 area. downside bids cleared  through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
  • EUR: Quiet move through to the Tokyo area holding the opening level around the 1.0840 area before Tokyo came in with a quick sell off to penetrate the 1.0830 level dipping to the upper 20’s before bouncing to into the 1.0835 area and slow drift too the 1.0830 for the move into the grey hours, downside bids cleared  through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.

 

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China says Coronavirus death toll rises by 121 to 1380

Total Coronavirus cases rise to 63,851 as of Feb 13

Billions at stake as Coronavirus sparks commodity crisis – AFR

JPY:

Japan’s GDP set for biggest hit since 2014 ahead of virus – BBG

USD/CNY:

Huawei hit with racketeering charge in expanding US case – BBG

AUD:

Cruise ship is in lockdown in Sydney Harbour – The Australian

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 49.6 | P 49.3 | R 49.2

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index MoM (DEC) A -0.2% | C 0.1% | P 1.3%

0700       EUR        German GDP n.s.a. YoY (4Q P) C 0.2% | P 1.0%

0700       EUR        German GDP w.d.a. YoY (4Q P) C 0.4% | P 0.5%

0700       EUR        German GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q P) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

1000       EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (4Q P) C 1.0% | P 1.0%

1000       EUR        Eurozone Employment YoY (4Q P) P 0.9%

1000       EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q P) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

1330       USD       Retail Sales Advance MoM (JAN) C 0.2% | P 0.3%

1330      USD       Export Price Index YoY (JAN) P -0.7%

1330       USD       Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (JAN) C -0.1% | P 0.2%

1330       USD       Retail Sales Control Group (JAN) C 0.3% | P 0.5%

1330       USD       Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JAN) C 0.3% | P 0.5%

1400       CAD       Existing Home Sales MoM (JAN) C -0.7% | P -0.9%

1415       USD       Industrial Production MoM (JAN) C -0.2% | P -0.3

1415       USD       Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JAN) C 0.0% | P 0.2%

1500       USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment (FEB P) C 99.2 | P 99.8

1500       USD       Business Inventories C 0.1% | P -0.2%

1800       USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (FEB 14) P 790

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet drift through the Asian session with opening high just below the 1.2965 level setting the tone through to the London session, early buyers into the Tokyo session matching the high before settling back to the 1.2960 opening level and holding deep into the session before starting the drift through into the grey hours to push to the 1.2945 level for the lows of the day, London were slow buyers and the rumours on the Chancellor Sajid Javid resigning/sacked over disagreements with PM Johnson did nothing to dampen the buying into early NYK taking over the move of London to rush from the 1.2985 levels to test quickly to the 1.3030 area, the market held quietly around the level into the NYK opening before running for a slower grind through to the 1.3065 levels to make the highs of the day, the run to the close was a slow long drawn out drift to finish the day just off the highs.
  • JPY: Opening just short of the 110.10 level JPY buying appeared into the Tokyo opening and the market dropped from the highs to quickly fall back to the 109.80 level before bouncing a little and running lightly through to the 110.00 area before spending several hours drifting in a fairly tight range through to the 109.70 areas with some minor stops triggered in midmorning in London to set the lows just above the 109.60 level, and ranging around the 109.70 through to the NYK session, rising a little on steady buying the market dipped quickly back towards the lows before moving back to the 109.80 level and trading in a long quiet run to the close.
  • AUD: Quiet opening and trading off the early highs around the 0.6735 area the move in the USDJPY saw the Oz become involved and AUDJPY selling saw Oz dipping back quickly on the Tokyo opening to the 0.6705 area and the low of the day, bouncing off the lows the market then spent the rest of the session drifting from the recovered 0.6730 level through to the 0.6710 area for the move into the grey hours, early London saw the market steadily rising through to around the opening level and dipping back to the 0.6730 for the move through into the NYK session, NYK saw slow steady buying and the market traded through the 0.6740 level and day traders were caught a little short and light weak stops triggered to make the highs around the 0.6745 area before drifting through the balance of the session to finish the day around the 0.6720 area.
  • EUR: A very slow Asian session, one suspects that traders are staying away wanting to buy but not against this downside trend, holding a very tight range with the market opening just above the 1.0870 level and was unable to really move through to the 1.0875 area let alone anywhere else however, on the flip side the market drifted through to just before the grey hours to make the low around the 1.0865 and a 10 pip range, the move through to the London session saw steady buying through to early morning and testing to just below the 1.0890 area before drifting a little for the move into the NYK session, early NYK sold quickly through to the 1.0860 area and a limited old trend line supporting the market for a short period before breaking through the 1.0850 area and triggering some weak stops and trading through to the 1.0835 level for the low of the day, there was a weak bounce however, having touched above the 1.0850 level the market saw the same slow drift as the rest of the major pairs and holding around the 108.40 too the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB) 4.0% | P 4.7%

GBP       RICS House Price Balance A 17.0% | C 3.0% | P 0.0%

AUD       RBA Governor Lowe Participate in Panel

EUR        German CPI YoY (JAN F) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%

EUR        German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (JAN F) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%

EUR        European Commission Publishes Winter Forecasts

USD       CPI YoY (JAN) A 2.5% | C 2.5% | P 2.3%

USD       CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (JAN) A 2.3% | C 2.2%% | P 2.3%%

USD       CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

USD       Continuing Claims (FEB 1) A 1698k | C 1748k | P 1751k | R 1759k

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 8) A 205k | C 210k | P 202k | R 203k

USD       Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (JAN) A 0.6% | P 0.6% | R 0.7%

USD       Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (JAN) A 0.1% | P 0.0%

USD        Senate Panel Holds Hearing for Fed Nominees Shelton, Waller

MXN      Overnight rate (FEB 13) A 7.0% | C 7.0% | P 7.25%

 

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