Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.782 | EURUSD 1.0831 | AUDUSD 0.67131 | NZDUSD 0.64339 | USDCAD 1.32419 | USDCHF 0.98242 | GBPUSD 1.30468
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08409 | 1.08354
USDJPY 109.854 | 109.721
GBPUSD 1.30532 | 1.30343
USDCHF 0.98263 | 0.98155
AUDUSD 0.67331 | 0.67153
USDCAD 1.32500 | 1.32343
NZDUSD 0.64466 | 0.64282
EURCHF 1.06480 | 1.06367
EURGBP 0.83084 | 0.83043
EURJPY 119.084 | 118.915
For Today
- GBP: US and Canadian bank holidays so likely to be limited trading through the day, A wide opening saw a small gap from Fridays close and a steady rise through to the Tokyo session testing just above the 1.3050 areas before slipping back and holding quietly around the 1.3045 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers likely into the 1.3100 level with congestion then following through to the 1.3150 area, limited stops possible with congestion likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 1.3200 area with weak and breakout stops likely on a move through the 1.3220 area to open the market to the mid 1.32’s from the beginning of the year, Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 levels possible weak stops along the way however stronger congestion then appears on a dip through the 1.2950 level and increasing into the 1.2900 area.
- JPY: Opening around Fridays close and rising a little e for the move into the Tokyo opening to test quickly through to the low 109.70’s before bouncing back and pushing slowly to the 109.85 area and ranging quietly from there in the 109.80-85 areas to the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 area and opening up limited room through to the 110.50 and increasing resistance as the market approaches the 111.00 areas, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area with limited support and weak stops likely to be light for a move back to the stronger 108.50 area with good support likely to appear on any dips to the 108.00 levels.
- AUD: Wide opening with no trades in the pre-market run the opening saw trades around the 0.6720 level and then testing towards the 0.6730 for the move into Tokyo before dropping back a little to make the lows around the 0.671 area before returning to the 0.6725 area and slowly pushing through the 0.6730 area for the move into the grey hours, downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the market opening around the 1.0840 level and although testing early below the 1.0830 area the market returned and ran for a long period through to the grey hours holding the opening levels, Downside bids into the 1.0800 area with likely strong stops on a test through the 1.0780 area and opening a deeper move through to the 1.0720 area with limited congestion along the way, Topside offers light through to the 1.0900 area with some stronger offers likely just beyond and stops appearing on a test through the 1.0920 level and congested offers through to the 1.1000 level increasing the closer you get.
Overnight News
SGD:
Singapore lowers 2020 GDP growth forecast on Coronavirus threat – BBG
JPY:
Japan’s GDP fell annualized 6.3% vs. est -3.8% – BBG
CNY:
Beijing crashes the party; Chinese media warns austerity is coming after FinMin comments – ZeroHedge
EUR/GBP:
EU and Britain will rip each other apart during trade talks – France warns – IND
EUR:
Italy’s PM under pressure to pull plug on frail government – TEL
Euro Washout exposes deep fault lines in Singel currency system – BBG
CHF:
SNB Negative rates are key, Swiss government tells politicians – BBG
USD/CNY:
US May stop sale of Jet engines by GE Venture to China – DJ – BBG
USD/AUD:
GM exits Australia, axes Holden in $1.1b overhaul – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Performance Services index (JAN) A 57.1 | P 52.1
JPY GDP Annualized s.a. QoQ (4Q P) A -6.3% | C -3.8% | P 0.5%
JPY GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q P) A -1.6% | C -1.0% | P 0.1%
JPY Nominal GDP QoQ (4Q P) A -1.2% | C -0.6% | P 0.5%
GBP Rightmove House Prices YoY (FEB) A 2.9% | P 2.7%
CNY New Home Prices MoM (JAN) A 0.27% | P 0.35%
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (JAN) C 3100.0b | P 1140.0b
CNY Aggregate Financing CNY (JAN) C 4200.0b | P 2100.0b
CNY Foreign Direct Investment YoY (JAN C 4.0% | P 1.50%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (DEC F) A | P -3.0%
2000 NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (JAN) P 12.3%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session dipping lightly through the 1.3040 level from the opening and then ranging in the 1.3040-50 level through to the grey hours, grey hours saw light buying and the London market took it too the highs of the day in early trading into the mid 1.3060’s before sinking back and testing through to the 1.3020 level to base along that area through into the NYK session before dropping again through to make the lows just above the 1.3000 level, lows made the market started a slight rise through to the 1.3020 level and the move towards the London close saw the Cable recovering through to the opening levels slowly rising through to the close to close just below the 1.3050 area.
- JPY: A limited day with the market dipping from the opening to make early lows just through the 109.75 area before rising back through into the Tokyo fix to test above the 109.85 level the move through the Asian session continuing to rise to make the highs for the day just above the 109.90 level before holding through into the NYK session in the 109.75-85 area, the move into the NYK session saw some strong early selling to test the 109.75 level and eventually shifting the range to the 109.70-80 level for the move through to the close.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening to test the 0.6710 level before starting a steady rise through the Tokyo opening to test into the early part of the session pushing to the highs just beyond the 0.6730 levels before dropping back to the 0.6720 area and ranging through to the opening in London, London quickly tested to the 0.6730 level again before a steady drift through towards the NYK session again holding the 0.6710 level and so it remained through to the close to finish the day just off the lows.
- EUR: A quiet start holding around the 1.0840 level dipping quickly into the Tokyo session to make the lows just below the 1.0830 level before holding around the 1.0830 area through to the London session with early London taking the market above the 1.0850 level before ranging around the opening levels through to the NYK session, quick buying into the opening took the markets to the highs of the day with the market testing lightly above the 1.0860 level and after a couple of hours dipping into the London close pushing back to the 1.0835 area to range through to late into the session to fall to the lows again for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 49.6 | P 49.3 | R 49.2
JPY Tertiary Industry Index MoM (DEC) A -0.2% | C 0.1% | P 1.3%
EUR German GDP n.s.a. YoY (4Q P) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 1.0%
EUR German GDP w.d.a. YoY (4Q P) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.5% | R 0.6%
EUR German GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q P) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.1% | R 0.2%
EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (4Q P) A 0.9% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
EUR Eurozone Employment YoY (4Q P) A 1.0% | P 0.9%
EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q P) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.3% | R 0.2%
USD Export Price Index YoY (JAN) A 0.5% | P -0.7%
USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (JAN) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.2%
USD Retail Sales Control Group (JAN) A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.5% | R 0.2%
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
CAD Existing Home Sales MoM (JAN) A -2.9% | C -0.7% | P -0.9%
USD Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A -0.3% | C -0.2% | P -0.3
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JAN) A -0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.2% | R 0.1%
USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (FEB P) A 100.9 | C 99.2 | P 99.8
USD Business Inventories A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P -0.2%
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (FEB 14) A 790 | P 790
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