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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Opening a little lower the market ranged around the 1.2950 level through to deep into the Tokyo session before slipping back to hold the 1.2935 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.3000 area likely to fall easily on a push through to the 1.3020 area and only stiffening once the market pushes the 1.3050 area with congestion likely and increasing on any move to push the 1.3100 level with likely stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with buyers likely to continue through to the 1.2850 with stronger congestion awaiting below the 1.2900 level and little in the way of stops for the moment.
• JPY: A minor dip on the opening saw the 111.40 level tested before rising through to the Tokyo session filling a very small gap from Friday, Tokyo continued the move through to just below the 111.70 level to make the highs, a slow session from there with some two way flows and the market ranging around the 111.55 area for a slight rise through to the 111.65 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 112.20 and increasing as it pushes too that area, weak stops likely on a test through the level and the market opening to the 112.50 level and then increasing size as any further movement appears through to the 113.00 level.
• AUD: A gap from the opening pushing off the 0.6590 level and steadily rising through to just after the Tokyo opening to test the 0.6620 area leaving a small gap remaining before dipping back to base off the 0.6600 area and generally ranging around the 0.6610 level through to the grey hours, weak offers through the 0.6650 area before stronger offers likely through the 0.6680 area and continuing through to the 0.6720 area with likely congestion limiting any damage that stops could create and that congestion continuing through to the 0.6780 level and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6580 areas with strong bids into the level and then weak stops appearing likely in size through to the 0.6550 levels a failure here will open a further test through to the 0.6520-00 area before any significant bids are likely.
• EUR: Opening weaker the market rose from the 1.0825 areas testing into the Tokyo session around the 1.0840 area before dipping on Tokyo fix holding initially on the opening level before slowly slipping through to the 1.0820 level for a long run to the grey hours, Downside bids light through into the 1.0785 area before stronger bids reappear in strength with weak stops possible through the level and opening a test through the congestion around the 1.0750 level and opening a test to the 1.0720 areas and stronger bids. Topside offers through to the 1.0860 level and although there could be some limited weakness the run to the 1.0880 is likely to be a struggler with weak stops likely through the 1.0920 if it can make it and an opening for limited topside movement,

Overnight News
EUR:
Merkel’s party hits record low in regional vote, Greens gain – BBG
Over 100 Italy cases of Coronavirus – BBG
Italy battles explosion of Coronavirus cases as third patient dies – NPW
ECB’s Villeroy says Monetary policy space is limited
Villeroy: More focus on fiscal policy if stimulus needed – BBG
Austria stops all train traffic with Italy – BBG
IRR/WHO:
Iran cases raises concern, air conference cancelled – BBG
CNY:
Millions of Chinese firms face collapse if banks don’t act fast – BBG
Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive up to 14 days later -SCMP
NZD:
RBNZ Kiwi heads south on bets that RBNZ will flip-flop and cut rates – BBG

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A slow rise from the opening around the 1.2880 areas and pushed through the Asian session testing through to the 1.2900 level for the run into the grey hours, a little slip back before the opening of the London session before rising quickly through to the 1.2925 area for the first test higher in early morning, after a brief pause the before starting a quick push higher testing quickly through the 1.2950 areas before holding quietly around the 1.2935 area the market through into the NYK session with the US market slowly pushing through to late into the session testing the 1.2980 area before slipping back in the final couple of hours to the close around the 1.2955 area.
• JPY: Opening just short of the highs of the day the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rising from the 111.95 early lows to test through to just below the 112.20 level to make the highs before slowly drifting back to the 111.95 lows again for the move into the London session, London were quick sellers with the market dropping back quickly to the 111.50 areas for the first time bouncing weakly but pushing steadily through to the NYK session to test to the 112.00 area before again seeing weakness reappear and the market testing lightly through the 111.50 level for the low of the day with no bounce and eventually a slow test to the 111.75 area and a slow drift to the close just above the lows.
• AUD: Rising a little higher from the opening just above the 0.6610 level to test towards the 0.6625 the market dipped back on the Tokyo fix to push through towards the 0.6590 level and held around the 0.6600 areas through to the London session before making the lows just through the 0.6590 areas before returning to the 66 cents area for a long run through to the NYK session with US numbers helping the market to quickly rise through to the 0.6630’s failing just below the 0.6640 area for a slow drift through to the close just above the 0.6625 level.
• EUR: Rising slowly and quietly through the Asian session opening on its lows around the 1.0785 area and pushing through to the London session trading just above the 1.0790 level having not really pushed beyond the 1.0795 area through the Asian session, A quick gappy move through the London opening to test the 1.0820 level before holding for a short period and dipping back to the figure level for a dull move through to the NYK session, NYK rose quickly as the market saw the chances of further rate cuts from the numbers and the market tested quickly through to the 1.0860 areas and ranged above the 1.0850 level through to the close on a long dull move.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (FEB P) A 48.3 | P 50.2
AUD CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (FEB P) A 49.8 | P 49.6
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (FEB P) A 48.4 | P 50.6
JPY National CPI YoY (JAN) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.8%
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.8% | P 0.7%
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.8% | P 0.9%
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (FEB P) A 47.6 | P 48.8
JPY All Industry Activity Index A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.9%
CHF Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P
EUR France Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s
EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (FEB P) A 53.3 | C 53.9 | P 54.2
EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (FEB P) A 51.1 | C 50.8 | P 51.2
EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (FEB P) A 47.8 | C 44.8 | P 45.3
EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (FEB P) A 51.6 | C 51.0 | P 51.3
EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (FEB P) A 49.1 | C 47.5 | P 47.9
EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (FEB P) A 52.8 | C 52.3 | P 52.5
GBP Central Government NCR (JAN) A -20.5b | P 15.6b
GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (FEB P) A 51.9 | C 49.7 | P 50.0
GBP Markit/CiPS UK Composite PMI (FEB P) A 53.3 | C 52.8 | P 53.3
GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (FEB P) A 53.3 | C 53.4 | P 53.9
GBP PSNB Ex Banking Groups (JAN) A -9.8b | C -11.4b | P 4.8b | R 4.2b
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (JAN) A -18.8b | P 16.6b
GBP PSNB (JAN) A 10.54b | C -12.0b | P 4.0b
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (JAN F) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.9% | R 1.1%
USD Markit US Composite PMI (FEB P) A 49.6 | P 53.3
USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (FEB P) A 50.8 | C 51.5 | P 51.9
USD Markit US Services PMI (FEB P) A 49.4 | C 53.5 | P 53.4
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (JAN) A -1.3% | C -1.7% | P 3.6% | R 3.9%
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (FEB 21) A 791 | P 790

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