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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Ranging around the opening 1.3000 level through to late in the session before starting a steady slide through to the grey hours testing lightly below the 1.2985 level and holding there for the move through, Topside offers light through the 1.3000 area likely to fall easily on a push through to the 1.3020 area and only stiffening once the market pushes the 1.3050 area with congestion likely and increasing on any move to push the 1.3100 level with likely stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with buyers likely to continue through to the 1.2850 with stronger congestion awaiting below the 1.2900 level and little in the way of stops for the moment.
• JPY: A slow rise through to the Tokyo session pushing off the 110.15 level and testing to the 110.35 area, light supply for the Tokyo fix saw the market dipping through to the opening levels again before holding a little and bouncing quickly through to the 110.45 level and rising steadily to just short of the 110.60 area to make the highs, the move to the grey hours saw the market slipping slowly to hold around the 110.45 level. Topside offers through to the 112.20 and increasing as it pushes too that area, weak stops likely on a test through the level and the market opening to the 112.50 level and then increasing size as any further movement appears through to the 113.00 level. Downside bids light through to the 110.00 level where limited congestion appears through to the 109.80 area, any pushes through to the 109.50 are likely to see stronger bids appearing and likely to continue through to the 109.00 level.
• AUD: Another narrow range for the Oz with the market dipping from the Tokyo session opening to test to the lows just below the 0.6590 level and then after a brief pause rising back to move above the 0.6605 area and define the range for the session, the move through to the grey hours saw the market slip back to hold the 0.6595 areas, weak offers through the 0.6650 area before stronger offers likely through the 0.6680 area and continuing through to the 0.6720 area with likely congestion limiting any damage that stops could create and that congestion continuing through to the 0.6780 level and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6580 areas with strong bids into the level and then weak stops appearing likely in size through to the 0.6550 levels a failure here will open a further test through to the 0.6520-00 area before any significant bids are likely.
• EUR: A slow drift from the opening through to the Tokyo session and the highs around the 1.0884 level, Tokyo moved in and sold the market off from the 1.0880 level quickly pushing through the 1.0870 level and the market held around the level with a minor dip through to the mid 1.0860’;s before recovering for the grey hours, Downside bids light through into the 1.0785 area before stronger bids reappear in strength with weak stops possible through the level and opening a test through the congestion around the 1.0750 level and opening a test to the 1.0720 areas and stronger bids. Topside offers through to the 1.0860 level and although there could be some limited weakness the run to the 1.0880 is likely to be a struggle with weak stops likely through the 1.0920 if it can make it and an opening for limited topside movement,

Overnight News
TRY:
Keeping Lira on short leash pushes Turkish reserves to the limit – BBG
CAD:
Air Canada scrubs all flights to China until April 10 due to coronavirus – Canadian press
JPY:
Tokyo Olympics could be a victim of Coronavirus, IOC official says – DJ
EUR:
Italy death toll jumps to 11 as Coronavirus spreads through Europe and beyond – SCMP
USD:
Fed official says Coronavirus economic fallout could spill over – NYT
API Reports US crude stockpiles rose 1.3m bbl last week
San Francisco’s mayor has declared a state of emergency as the Coronavirus continues to spread – BDR
Fed’s Kaplan says not yet inclined to think about rate cut – DJ
AUD:
Pressure mounts on Australia pension funds to drop fossil fuels – BBG
Government activates Pandemic plan – SYH
Aus GDP revisions lower to be clear on the back of the China teams downgrades
Q1 GDP 0.3% From 0.4%
Annual GDP 2.2% from 2.4%
EUR/GBP
EU’s Barnier hits Boris Johnson with Brexit trade Ultimatum – BBG
GBP:
Mass Coronavirus testing to be launched in Britain to uncover how far disease has spread

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
1200 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 21) P -6.4%
1330 EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks in Wiesbaden, Germany
1500 USD New Home Sales MoM (JAN) C 2.7% | P -0.4%
1530 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 21) P 415k
2145 NZD Trade Balance (JAN) C -533m | P 547m
2145 NZD Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (JAN) C -3940m | P -4309m

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening around the 1.2930 level the market moved higher through the day in gradual steps, moving from the days lows in Tokyo to quickly move from the 1.2915 area to the 1.2940 level and then quietly ranged around the level through to the grey hours, a light sell off through to the 1.2930 areas before London moved in and quickly took it through to the 1.2960 level, a brief pause before running for a third time through to the 1.2995 level and stalling to drift through to the NYK session testing back to the 1.2950 level, NYK were slow buyers and the market slowly rose through to the end of the London session to press above the 1.3000 testing through the 1.3015 level for the high of the day before drifting back to range through to the close around the 1.3000 level.
• JPY: Rising from the opening around the 110.70 areas slowly rising through to the Tokyo session testing lightly through to the 111.00 area before moving into a slow drift through to the London session holding around the 110.80 levels, London were steady sellers throughout the session and the market pushed steadily through to midmorning holding around the 110.40 areas before rising a little for the move into the NYK session testing back to the opening levels however, unlike the last two days the market saw selling move into the end of London trading steadily through to the 110.00 level and then ranging around the level into the IMM close and then slowly rising for the move to the close.
• AUD: Fairly limited day for the Oz with the market initially pushing through to its highs just above the 0.6620 level and ranging for several hours before ranging through to the grey hours in the 0.6610-20 area, the London market then saw selling enter the market and the Oz slipped quickly from the 0.6620 area testing to the 66 cents area and then slowly drifting through into the NYK session testing into the mid 0.6580’s to make the lows before bouncing slowly through to the 0.6600 level and a quite range through to the close around the figure area.
• EUR: A quiet opening and move through the early part of the session testing down into the 108.45 area before quickly pushing through to the 1.0860 area and a slow steady push towards the 1.0870 area, the move through to the grey hours saw limited movement and the market drifting back to the 1.0850 level, light buying into the London session saw the market recover to the early highs through to mid-morning, dropping steadily on the move through to the NYK session saw the market testing through to the 1.0830 and a steady range through to the end of the London session with a quick move high through to the 1.0880 levels for a steady range through to the close of the session with the market testing through to the 1.0890 high.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
EUR German GDP n.s.a YoY (4Q F) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
EUR German GDP w.d.a. YoY (4Q F) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
MXN Economic Activity IGAE YoY (DEC) A 0.70% | C 0.52% | P -1.21%
USD House Price Index MoM (DEC) A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
USD House Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q) A 1.3% | P 1.1%
USD S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (DEC) A 0.43% | C 0.40% | P 0.48%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 YoY (DEC) A 2.90% | C 2.85% | P 2.55% | R 2.50%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (DEC) A 3.75% | P 3.54%
USD Consumer Confidence Index A 130.7 | C 132.2 | P 131.67
USD Conf Board Present Situation (FEB) A 165.1 | P 175.3 | R 173.9

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