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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A slow climb from the opening just above the 1.2900 level to push into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.2915 area, Tokyo fix over with a minor dip back to the 1.2910 area the market again forced steadily through to test towards the 1.2930 level but had to wait till late into the session before pushing through to test lightly beyond the 1.2935 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.3000 area likely to fall easily on a push through to the 1.3020 area and only stiffening once the market pushes the 1.3050 area with congestion likely and increasing on any move to push the 1.3100 level with likely stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with buyers likely to continue through to the 1.2850 with stronger congestion awaiting below the 1.2900 level and little in the way of stops for the moment.
• JPY: JPY buyers through the session with the market opening around the 110.40 level before moving into the Tokyo opening dropping back from the highs around the 110.46 area to test quickly to the 110.20 level, a bounce like a soggy cat saw the opening levels regained before a more steady drift through to the 110.20 level over the course of several hours, the push at the level saw weak stops triggered and the market dipping through to the 110.00 level with a light penetration of the level before returning to the 110.10 area for the move through to the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 112.20 and increasing as it pushes too that area, weak stops likely on a test through the level and the market opening to the 112.50 level and then increasing size as any further movement appears through to the 113.00 level. Downside bids light through to the 110.00 level where limited congestion appears through to the 109.80 area, any pushes through to the 109.50 are likely to see stronger bids appearing and likely to continue through to the 109.00 level.
• AUD: A very light session for the Oz lifting off the 0.6544 lows saw the market holding into the Tokyo session then moving through to the 0.6550 area after brief flirtations with the downside, fix over with the market lifted off the lows again and tested steadily through to the 0.6560 level and remained close to the level through to the grey hours, weak offers through the 0.6650 area before stronger offers likely through the 0.6680 area and continuing through to the 0.6720 area with likely congestion limiting any damage that stops could create and that congestion continuing through to the 0.6780 level and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6580 areas with strong bids into the level and then weak stops appearing likely in size through to the 0.6550 levels a failure here will open a further test through to the 0.6520-00 area before any significant bids are likely.
• EUR: Interest for the Euro through the session saw the opening the low so far for the day, holding quietly through into Tokyo and pushing quickly through to the 1.0910 area before drifting back to the figure level, a steadier rise to extend the highs just through the 1.0914 level and a quiet range through to the grey hours around the 1.0910 area, Downside bids light through into the 1.0785 area before stronger bids reappear in strength with weak stops possible through the level and opening a test through the congestion around the 1.0750 level and opening a test to the 1.0720 areas and stronger bids. Topside offers through to the 1.0860 level and although there could be some limited weakness the run to the 1.0880 is likely to be a struggle with weak stops likely through the 1.0920 if it can make it and an opening for limited topside movement,

Overnight News
CNY:
Another standing committee meeting, as infected woman drives from Wuhan to Beijing
More evidence of coverups in Wuhan
They were infected with Coronavirus. They never showed signs – NYT
USD:
FED can’t wait to respond to the Coronavirus – WSJ
Trump faces his Chernobyl Moment after slashing Pandemic Defences to the bone – Tel
NZD:
NZ Business Confidence drops as virus dents outlook – ANZ
AUD:
Morrison says Coronavirus likely a Pandemic
Morrison: Uni students not at risk of Coronavirus
10yr Bond Yield falls to record low of 0.845%

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Trade Balance (JAN) A 340m | C -533m | P 547m
NZD Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (JAN) A 3866m | C -3940m | P -4309m
NZD ANZ Activity outlook (FEB) A 12.0 | P 17.2
AUD Private Capital Expenditure A -2.8% | C 0.5% | P -0.4%
1330 USD Durable Goods Orders (JAN P) C -1.5% | P 2.4%
1330 USD GDP Annualized QoQ (4Q S) C 2.1% | P 2.1%
1330 USD GDP Price Index (4Q S) C 1.4% | P 1.4%
1330 USD Continuing Claims (FEB 15) P 1726k
1330 USD Core PCE QoQ (4Q S) C 1.3% | P 1.3%
1330 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JAN P) C 0.2% | P -0.1%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 22) C 212k | P 210k
1330 USD Personal Consumption (4Q S) C 1.7% | P 1.8%
1500 USD Pending Home Sales P 6.8%
2100 NZD NZ government 7 Month Financial Statements
2330 JPY Jobless Rate (JAN) C 2.2% | P 2.2%
2350 JPY Industrial Production YoY (JAN P) C -3.1% | P -3.1%
2350 JPY Large Retailers Sales (JAN) C -1.7% | P 3.0%
2350 JPY Retail Trade YoY (JAN) C -1.0% | P -2.6%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A slow drift from the early highs in Tokyo slipping back from just above the 1.3005 level and back through the opening 1.3000 level to test through to the 1.2985 area before recovering only slightly for the move into the grey hours, a small drift lower only to recover for the move into the London opening and then a steeper decline through the morning session in London as Barmier demands the Crown Jewels in preparation for a trade deal (JK) and Johnson threatens to walk away again, the market eventually found the 1.2915 with NYK lifting it slightly off the lows and ranging through to the London close ranging around the 1.2925 level, with London removed the market made a move to test the 1.2900 level and based along the line through to a quick dip below for the close.
• JPY: Rising from the opening around the 110.15 areas to test lightly above the 110.30 level into the Tokyo opening before dipping back again to the opening level, fixing over the market started a steady recovery with a quick move through to the 110.45 area as weak early shorts cut and the market continued steadily from there through to the 110.55 area for the Asian high, a quiet drift through to range around the 110.40 areas, the move into the London session initially saw an attempt to push through the early highs but failed miserably and dropped quickly back to the 110.10 area to test the lows again, a steady rise through to the NYK session pushing lightly through to the 110.40 level pausing and then running to push the 110.60 area before drifting through into the NYK session holding quietly above the 110.40 areas, a quick push higher saw the 110.70 level trade then the market dip back initially to the 110.50 level before dropping quickly through to 110.30 ranging either side of the level in the run to the close by some 10 pips.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.6600 level the market struggled through to the 0.6605 area before drifting back to test the 0.6590 level, a slow recovery with the high being extended a little before holding quietly for the move through to the grey hours drifting to the 0.6590 area, grey hour selling saw some weak stops triggered on a dip through to the 0.6570 level recovering only slightly before holding in a quiet 0.6575 range for a few hours, another step lower saw the holding pattern around the 0.6570 level and holding through to the close in London before the penultimate dip to hold for the run to the close just above the 0.6550 area and dipping for the close just above the 0.6540 level.
• EUR: 1.0880 level holding around the level through into the Tokyo session, Tokyo opening saw a quick dip through to the 1.0870 areas and ranged through to the London session around that level with a minor dip to the 1.0872 area but unable to recapture the opening levels, London were steady buyers through the 1.0880 area with a slight push for the 1.0900 level before stalling and dipping back to range the 1.0880 area, NYK opening saw a quick strike through the 1.0905 level before immediately dipping back and pushing through to the 1.0860 level testing to the 1.0855 area before slowly rising through the London close to hold around the 1.0890 areas ranging around the level through to the close with 10 pips either side.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 21) A 1.5% | P -6.4%
EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks in Wiesbaden, Germany
USD New Home Sales MoM (JAN) A 7.9% | C 2.7% | P -0.4% | R 2.3%
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 21) A 452k | P 415k

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