Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.095 | EURUSD 1.10285 | AUDUSD 0.65073 | NZDUSD 0.62466 | USDCAD 1.33939 | USDCHF 0.96539 | GBPUSD 1.28176
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10735 | 1.10361
USDJPY 108.372 | 107373
GBPUSD 1.28378 | 1.27921
USDCHF 0.96535 | 0.96212
AUDUSD 0.65466 | 0.64757
USDCAD 1.34420 | 1.33367
NZDUSD 0.62478 | 0.6203
EURCHF 1.06676 | 1.06451
EURGBP 0.86505 | 0.86081
EURJPY 119.828 | 118.659
For Today
- GBP: Cable opened lower around the 1.2810 level having seen preopening trading testing the 1.2750 level however, opening without a significant gap saw the market move through into the Tokyo session ranging around the 1.2800 level to start a slow rise through to the 1.2830 level testing just above the 1.2835 for the high then holding around the 1.2820 level to the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.2700 areas with possible weak stops on any further break lower however, congestion is likely to continue through the sentimental levels on any push lower with the 1.2600 and 1.2500 level likely to be better defended, Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 level with stops likely through the level and the market then opening to stronger offers on any approach to the 1.3000 levels.
- JPY: Pre market trading saw the market testing as low as the 107.25 level before the opening, however, the opening saw the USDJPY around the 107.60 area and although it tested back to the 107.40 level the selling was all but over and a steady rise through into the Tokyo session saw the gap on the charts closing and once the Tokyo fix was over with the market traded steadily through to just below the 108.40 areas to make the highs before drifting to the grey hours holding around the 108.10 areas. Topside offers light through to the 109.35 area with weak stops likely just above the area and opening up a possible short squeeze however, with margins squeezed and repatriation of JPY as investors start to doubt the global economies strength it could be limited to the topside, a push through the 109.60 areas could possibly see a limited short squeeze and opening up the 110.00 area, downside bids into the 107.50 level however, much of the interest is cleared with through to the 107.20 areas, a push through to the 106.80 area will likely create further weakness and the market tending to stall at each sentimental level for the moment with stronger bids likely into the 106.00 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6475 area the market gapping some 35 pips from the close on Friday the market held the level and once early Tokyo started to move in the buying pushed the market back through to the 0.6525 area for the move into the Tokyo session and after a brief dip the market recovered its composure and started rising steadily through to just short of the 0.6550 area to make the highs and then drift to the grey hours holding around the 0.6515-20 level. Downside bids light through to the 0.6440 area where bids are likely to reappear and increase on any test through to the 0.6400 level, a push through to the 0.6380 area will see weak stops appear and the market testing through to the 0.6350 and stronger congestive bids reappearing. Topside offers likely weak through to the 66 cents areas and weak stops above the level to open up the possibility of a short squeeze through to the stronger 67 cents level.
- EUR: Opening a little higher the Euro pushed from the 1.1040 level through to test lightly through the 1.1070 area to make the highs before dipping back for the move into the Tokyo session and then ranging in the 1.1060-50 area through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Topside offers strong through the 1.1080 level and into the 1.1120 area before weakness appears on any testing through to the 1.1140-60 areas with stronger offers likely behind that level, downside bids light through to the 1.0950 areas with stronger bids beginning to form in the 1.0920 areas with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.0880 area and while there could be stops in the area congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.0820-00 levels.
Overnight News
GBP/EUR:
Brexit Trade talks begin as officials warn of risk of breakdown – BBG
CNY:
China Manufacturing gauge fell to record low at 40.3 in Feb – DJ
China reports highest daily increase in virus cases in a week – Strait Times
USD:
First case of Coronavirus confirmed in New York State – WSJ
JPY:
Questions raised over Coronavirus reinfection after Japanese women develops illness again – TWT
AUD:
Australia most exposed to virus – Trump Adviser- AFR
ANZ bank now sees RBNZ cutting OCR by 50bp in March
JPY/USD:
Repatriation flow data indicates US investors still catching up on Coronavirus – RTRs
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 35.7 | C 45.0 | P 50.0
CNY Composite PMI (FEB) A 28.9 | P 53.0
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 29.6 | C 50.0 | P 54.1
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing index (FEB) A 44.3 | 45.4
NZD Terms of Trade Index QoQ (4Q) A 2.6% | C 0.8% | P 1.7%
AUD TD Securities Inflation YoY (FEB) A 1.6% | P 1.8%
NZD Treasury Publishes Monthly Economic Indicators
CNY Caixin China PMI Manufacturing A 40.3 | C 46 | P 51.1
0625 CHF SNB Publishes 2019 annual result
0830 CHF PMI Manufacturing (FEB) C 48.0 | P 47.8
0930 GBP Consumer Credit YoY (JAN) P 6.1%
0930 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JAN) C 68.0k | P 67.2k
0930 GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN) C 1.0b | P 1.2b
0930 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings C 4.6b | P 4.6b
1000 EUR OECD Publishes Interim Economic Outlook
1000 EUR Italian Annual GDP (2019) C 0.2% | P 0.8%
1430 CAD RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (FEB) P 50.6
1500 USD ISM Employment (FEB) C 47 | P 46.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB) C 50.5 | 50.9
1500 USD Construction Spending MoM (JAN) C 0.7% | P -0.2%
1500 USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB) C 51.7 | P 53.3
1530 MXN Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (FEB) P 49.0
2350 JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (JAN) P 1.79%
2350 JPY Monetary Base YoY (FEB) P 2.9%
2350 JPY Monetary Base End of period (FEB) P 517.2t
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Generally holding a steady range through to the grey hours, opening around the 1.2885 level and rising to the 1.2895 areas through into the Tokyo session, a slow drift back in midsession to test the 1.2875 areas before running to the grey hours gaining the opening levels again, a light selloff in the grey hours to test through to the 1.2860 areas before moving into the London session and steadily pushing through to the highs of the day just above the 1.2920 level before drifting back for the move into the NYK session holding the 1.2870 level again, NYK saw steady selling through to the London lows and weak stops sending the market to the 1.2750 area on the break of 1.2800, holding through to the London close the market slipped steadily back further over the course of an hour to test the 1.2725 level as concerns about trade negotiations continue, the market bounced off the lows and managed to push through to the last couple of hours testing through the 1.2800 level to hold into the close around the 1.2820 area.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.60-50 area the market dipped quickly to the 109.35 area before regaining the opening and moving through into the Tokyo session on its highs around the 109.65 area, steady selling through the session saw the market drifting through to midsession testing the 109.00 level before pushing through for the grey hours however, the weak bids soon disappeared on a dip through to the 108.50 level once London opened and based along the level through to the NYK session where selling reappeared and the market quickly pushed through the 108.00 level this time test the 107.80 level before recovering through to the 108.50 area, the run to the close saw the market pushing through to the 107.50 area to make the lows before returning to finish slightly above the 108.00 level for the close.
- AUD: JPY buying dominated the AUD through the day with the market making the highs on the opening and repeating it through into the Tokyo opening testing the 0.6585 area before starting a steady slide through to the grey hours testing the 0.6510 area before moving into the London session pushing towards the 0.6545 area before running out of steam and starting a slow drift back to the 0.6500 areas to hold deep into the NYK session before breaking and triggering stops for a quick drop through to the 0.6435 level and the lows, the market snapped back to the 65 cents area holding above the 0.6480 area to late in the session before catching a small squeeze higher for the move to the closing period testing the 0.6530 area before drifting to the close just above the figure level.
- EUR: Euro remained reasonable static considering the movements in some of the other major pairs opening around the 1.1000 level the market drifted through the Asian session through to the 1.0980 level before slowly forcing its way back higher to move into the grey hours testing the 1.1010 level, the opening in London saw a quick rise through to the 1.1025 area and then a steady climb to 1.1050 before the wheels fell off and quickly reversed the days move, a slow test through the 1.0980 level saw the market grinding lower to test towards the 1.0950 area and the congestion there was able to turn the tide into the NYK session to push initially back to the 1.10 level and then late in the session pop through to 1.1025 area for a slow rise towards the highs again before settling back for the close around the 1.1030 areas.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD NZ government 7 Month Financial Statements
JPY Jobless Rate (JAN) A 2.4% | C 2.2% | P 2.2%
JPY Industrial Production YoY (JAN P) A -2.5% | C -3.1% | P -3.1%
JPY Large Retailers Sales (JAN) A -1.4% | C -1.7% | P -3.0% | R -2.8%
JPY Retail Trade YoY (JAN) A -0.4% | C -1.0% | P -2.6%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence A -7 | C -8 | P -9
AUD Private Sector Credit YoY (JAN) A 2.5% | P 2.4%
JPY Construction Orders YoY (JAN) A -17.0% | P 21.4%
JPY Housing Starts YoY (JAN) A -10.1% | C -5.3% | P -7.9%
GBP Nationwide House Px n.s.a. YoY (FEB) A 2.3% | C 2.3% | P 1.9%
CHF Retail Sales Real YoY (JAN) A -0.1% | P 0.1% | R 0.8%
EUR French GDP YoY (4Q F) A 0.9% | C 0.8% | P 0.8%
CHF KOF Leading Indicator (FEB) A 100.9 | C 97.8 | P 100.1
EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB) A -10k | C 5.0k | P -2.0k | R -4.0k
EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (FEB) A 5.0% | C 5.0% | P 5.0%
EUR German CPI YoY (FEB P) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (FEB P) A 1.7% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%
EUR German CPI MoM (FEB P) A 0.6% | C 0.3% | P -0.6% | R -0.8%
EUR German CPI EU Harmonized MoM (FEB P) 0.6% | C 0.4% | P -0.8%
CAD GDP YoY (DEC) A 1.9% | C 1.6% | P 1.5%
CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized (4Q) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 1.3%
CAD GDP MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
USD Advance Goods Trade Balance (JAN) A -65.5b | C -68.1b | P -68.3b
USD PCE Core YoY (JAN) A 1.6% | C 1.7% | P 1.6%
USD PCE Core MoM (JAN) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
USD Personal Income (JAN) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P 0.2% | R 0.1%
USD Personal Spending (JAN) A 0.2% | 0.3% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
USD Real Personal Spending (JAN) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Wholesale Inventories MoM (JAN P) -0.2% | C 0.0% | P -0.2% | R -0.3%
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB) A 49.0 | C 46.0 | P 42.9
USD U. of Mich Sentiment (FEB F) A 101.0 | C 100.7 | P 100.9
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (FEB 28) A 790 | P 791
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