Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.915 | EURUSD 1.1183 | AUDUSD 0.61204 | NZDUSD 0.60716 | USDCAD 1.40148 | USDCHF 0.94693 | GBPUSD 1.22723 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11887 | 1.11588
USDJPY 107.033 | 105.909
GBPUSD 1.22762 | 1.22342
USDCHF 0.94975 | 0.9469
AUDUSD 0.61476 | 0.60971
USDCAD 1.40177 | 1.39617
NZDUSD 0.60965 | 0.60358
EURCHF 1.06032 | 1.05744
EURGBP 0.91326 | 0.9095
EURJPY 119.466 | 118.297

For Today
• GBP: A reasonably quiet session with the market opening around the 1.2270 level and dipping through to the 1.2240 area before bouncing a little and running back to the opening level for a quiet run to the Tokyo open, Tokyo were slow sellers back through to the 1.2240 level before slowly rising through to the 1.2260 areas and a quiet run to the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.2250 level with possibly stronger bids in the area, and likely to increase through the 1.2200 level, some limited weakness and the market likely to be nervous of a dip through the 1.2000 levels and the 1.1800 level from 2016. Topside offers light and possibly open to a short squeeze, weak offers likely through the sentimental levels with slightly strong congestion possibly appearing on a move through the 1.2500 area and offers likely to be building on any further tests through to the 1.2600 area and here is likely where a short squeeze could occur.
• JPY: Opening just short of the 106.00 level a quiet run through to the Tokyo opening pushing the 106.40 level, the move to the Tokyo fix saw demand and a push through to the 107.00 levels to test the 107.20 level before dropping quickly back to range around the 106.50 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 108.50 area with some limited congestion likely through to the 108.70 areas with stronger offers likely to appear through the 109.00 area with weak stops likely on a break through the 109.20 levels, possible weakness through into the 109.80 area where stronger offers are likely to appear,
• AUD: Opening around the 61 cents level and a little stab lower was quickly reversed and a steady rise through to the 0.6120 area before slipping back towards the lows for the move into the Tokyo session, as USDJPY strengthened so did the OZ in a steady rise through to the 0.6150 level to make the high for the day before dipping back to the 0.6150 area and then recovering to range around the 0.6125 areas through to the close. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 0.6100 level with congestion around the 0.6100-0.6080 level with weak stops on a break through the level however, stronger bids are likely to appear on any dip through to the 0.6050 area and continue into the 60 cents level with option barriers likely, a break through the 0.5980 level will likely see strong stops appearing and a chance of the market pushing steadily through the 0.5950 level to target 59 cents before stronger bids reappear, topside offers light through to the 63 cents level and a push above the 0.6330 area is likely to see weak stops and the possibility of a squeeze through to above the 0.6450 levels before stronger offers reappear.
• EUR: A quiet range around the 1.1170 areas with a slow drift to the early lows around the 1.1160 level before Tokyo opened, a slow rise through to midsession pushing towards the 1.1190 level and then a quiet range in the 1.1180 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.1200 area with some congestion through to the 1.1220 area, with strong stops likely on a push through the 1.1240 area and the market quickly opening to push at the 1.1280 level and stronger offers through to the 1.1340 areas however, from there its likely to see increasing levels of resistance through to the 1.1400 level , downside bids light through to the 1.1060 level with stronger bids likely to give way to stops on a move through the 1.1040 area and opening a return to last months 1.1000 level and lighter bids through to the 1.0950 area.

Overnight News
AUD:
RBA Set to fire off alternative policy – DJ
RBA adds AUD8.8b to banking system through repos
RBA: Board prepared to ease policy further to support economy
RBA: Spread raises prospect of extended global economic disruption
NZD:
New Zealand announces virus support package worth 4% of GDP
NZD5.1b for wage subsides
NZD2.8b in increased welfare payments
NZD2.8b in business tax relief
NZD500m in aviation industry support
USD:
Trump: The worst of coronavirus outbreak could be over in July or August
US economy may be heading into recession
CAD:
Trudeau: Canada will close the border to all non-citizens over virus, effective Weds, will make exceptions including US Citizens, ban won’t apply to commerce and trade

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD RBA Minutes of March Policy Meeting (MAR)
JPY Industrial Production YoY (JAN F) A | P -2.5%
0930 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (JAN) C 3.0% | P 2.9%
0930 GBP Claimant Count Rate (FEB) P 3.4%
0930 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (JAN) C 140k | P 180k
0930 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (JAN) C 3.8% | P 3.8%
0930 GBP Jobless Claims Change (FEB) P 5.5k
0930 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY (JAN) C 3.2% | P 3.2%
1000 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR) P 10.4
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (MAR) C -27.2 | P 8.7
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation (MAR) C -30.0 | P -15.7
1230 USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (FEB) C 0.2% | P 0.3%
1230 USD Retail Sales Control Group (FEB) C 0.4% | P 0.0%
1230 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas C 0.4% | P 0.4%
1315 USD Industrial Production MoM (FEB) C 0.4% | P -0.3%
1315 USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB) C 0.3% | P -0.1%
1400 USD Business Inventories (JAN) C -0.1% | P 0.1%
1400 USD NAHB Housing Market Index C 74 | P 74
2145 NZD Current Account GDP Ratio YTD (4Q) C -3.1% | P -3.3%
2330 AUD Westpac leading index MoM (FEB) P 0.05%
2350 JPY Trade Balance (FEB) C 916.7b | P -1312.6b

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Choppy opening with the market quickly hitting the 1.2430 area dipping back to the opening 1.2330 level before quickly regaining the highs for the move into the Tokyo opening, Tokyo were strong sellers and chased the market through the 1.2300 level a little before settling down and a long drawn out recover to the 1.2370 level for the move into the grey hours, the choppiness continued through the session with a dip through to the 1.2280 level on the London opening only to snap quickly back to hold for a short period before running lower, the pattern continued through the day with the lows increasing in depth through the day, NYK opening saw the market dropping quickly through the 1.2250 areas ranging after the dip saw the market move back above 1.2300 before again dipping this time through to the 1.2210 level, rising from the level the market again struggled above the 1.2300 level and the run to the London close saw the market pushing through to the lows and once London was out of the way continuing through to press towards the 1.2200 level, recovering slowly through the run to the close the market pushed through the 1.2250 level before closing just beyond that level.
• JPY: rising slightly from the low opening and testing the 106.50 level the market managed to push above the 107.00 level in early trading before quickly dipping through the 106.00 level recovering then dipping a second time for the move into the Tokyo opening pushing off the 105.75 area to recover over a period about half of the gap on the charts before running out of steam once touching the 107.50 level the market moved into the grey hours testing the low 106 handle for the move into the London session and slowly drifting through to NYK opening to test the lows around the 105.15 level, a limited recovery through to the 106.50 level saw the market then settling down to range through to the close around the 106.00 area.
• AUD: Opening above the 0.6250 level the market saw the high made in the first hour with the 0.6300 level lightly penetrated before a quick and dramatic drop through to the 0.6110 levels with interest rate cuts impacting the early market, the move towards the Tokyo opening saw the Oz rise to above the 62 cents level before Tokyo moved in to see the market ranging around the 0.6150 through to late in the day with early Tokyo flirting with the 61 cents level before narrowing down for the move through to the NYK session, a deep dip through the 61 cent level saw the low for the day around the 0.6080 area before pushing quickly back and now centring on the 0.6130 level for the run to the close however, a final slow drift saw a couple of attempts at the lows but ran out of time.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1150 levels the market rose through early buying to the 1.1200 level before dipping back and running a second time for the move into the Tokyo session with solid selling filling the gap on the charts through to the 1.1080 area before holding steady for a couple of hours then rising slowly through to the London open recovering the opening level, London opening saw steady buying with the market rising in a tight channel through to the 1.1235 level before running out of steam and dipping slowly back to the 1.1200 and dropping quickly through to the opening levels as weak stops appeared then holding steady through to the NYK session the market saw a brief attempt at the 1.1200 level before falling away to again test through to the 1.1100 area before slowly recovering through to a quiet run to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD RBNZ Official Cash Rate – inter- meeting Decision (MAR 16) A 0.25% | P 1.00%
USD FOMC Rate Decision – Inter-Meeting Decision (lower bound) (MAR 15) A 0.00% | P 1.00%
USD FOMC Rate Decision – Inter-Meeting Decision (upper bound) (MAR 15) A 0.25% | P 1.25%
USD Interest Rate on Excess Reserves – Inter-Meeting Decision A 0.10% | P 1.10%
NZD Performance Services (FEB) A 52 | P 57.1
JPY Machine Orders YoY (JAN) A 0.3% | C -1.1% | P -3.5%
GBP Rightmove House Prices A 3.5% | P 2.9%
CNY New Home Prices MoM (FEB) A 0.02% | P 0.27%
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (FEB) A -24.5% | C -2.0%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (FEB) A -13.5% | C -3.0% | P 5.7%
CNY Property Investment YTD YoY (FEB) A -16.3% | P 9.9%
CNY Retail Sales YTD YoY (FEB) A -20.5% | C -4.0% | P 8.0%
CNY Surveyed Jobless Rate (FEB) A -6.2% | P 5.2%
CAD Existing Home Sales MoM (FEB) A 5.9% | C 0.5% | P -2.9%
NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence (1Q) A 104.2 | P 109.9
USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows (JAN) A 20.9b | P 85.6b

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