Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.721 | EURUSD 1.06918 | AUDUSD 0.5744 | NZDUSD 0.56739 | USDCAD 1.45155 | USDCHF 0.98606 | GBPUSD 1.14823 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.07689 | 1.06540
USDJPY 111.371 | 109.781
GBPUSD 1.16728 | 1.14114
USDCHF 0.98885 | 0.97815
AUDUSD 0.59071 | 0.56656
USDCAD 1.45369 | 1.43744
NZDUSD 0.58032 | 0.56138
EURCHF 1.06407 | 1.05247
EURGBP 0.93367 | 0.92146
EURJPY 118.717 | 118.038

For Today
• GBP: Early system selling pushed the Cable to new lows to test just above the 1.1410 level however, the move failed and steadily moved through to the 1.1500 level steadily to move into the Tokyo session holding around the figure level, a quick move to the 1.1550 saw the early sellers squeezed out and the market continuing steadily through to the 1.1650 without a hint of resistance until that area then ranging steadily through to the run to the grey hours lifting in the final hour towards the 1.1670 areas, Downside bids into the 1.1400 level with weak stops on a dip through opens up another round of selling and one wonders whether sentimental bids can stand up, a test through to the 1.1200 area is likely to open the market for further declines however, the market is looking very tired, Topside offers light through to the 1.1800 area with weak stops through the 1.1700 level likely to see the level reached quickly before late comers start to appear to resist the move however, there is a possibility of a short squeeze and really nothing to stop that scenario pushing further.
• JPY: A slow rise through to the Tokyo session saw the highs made for the session on a push through the 111.30 level before peaking and slow drifting through to midsession testing through to the 110.20 level and finding a base, the move through the midsession saw the market basing on the level before slowly pushing through to the 109.80 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 111.40-60 levels where resistance starts to increase and likely to increase on a push towards the 112.00 level, congested through into the 109.00 level however, likely to be light with limited weak stops through the level and stronger bids appearing probably around the 108.50 area and lightly continuing through to the 108.00-107.80 levels
• AUD: Initially dipping from the opening the market tested through to the 0.5680 area before moving through into Tokyo and the market started a steady rise through to the opening level and after a brief pause testing quickly to the 58 cents level before triggering a few weak stops and following through to a steady push to peak above the 59 cent level, the market ran out of steam and dropped quickly back to the 0.5820 areas and a steady range edging slowly back to the 0.5860 area for the run to the grey hours, downside bids light all the way through to the 0.5550 area before stronger congestion is likely to appear a break through to the 55 cents level is likely to see some limited bids with weak stops possibly mixed with larger breakout orders and opening a deeper move through the sentimental levels and onto the 53 cents handle, Topside offers light through to the 0.6000 level and the offers likely to increase through to the 0.6620 level before weakness reappears opening a quick test to the 61 cents levels.
• EUR: A similar pattern for the Euro with early sellers running the market to range around the 1.0665 area deep into Tokyo before rising steadily through to the 1.0750 level to quietly range just below the level through to just before the grey hours and a steady push to make the highs around the 1.0770 level dipping back to hold the 1.0750 level through to the grey hours. Downside bids likely strong on any dip to the 1.0650 areas with weak stops on a dip through the 1.0640 area, once through the level though congestion is likely to be light through the 1.0600 level and congested bids into the 1.0580 area with stops through the level to open up another big figure move before finding old supportive lines on the 1.04 handle. Topside offers light through to 1.0900 level before offers start to thicken for any move towards the 1.1000 level and possible strong resistance.

Overnight News
AUD:
RBA has bumpy entry into alternative policy – DJ
RBA reports surplus cash at ES accounts rose to record AUD30.12b
NAB to cut variable rates on small business loans by 100bps
Australian banks announce AUD100b loan relief package for businesses
USD:
Trump administration urges rapid stimulus approval as economy tanks

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
CNY: 1yr Loan Prime Rate (MAR) A 4.05% | C 3.95% | P 4.05%
CNY 5yr Loan Prime Rate (MAR) A 4.75% | C 4.7% | P 4.75%
NZD Credit Card Spending YoY (FEB) A 2.5% | P 3.7%
0930 GBP BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12mths (FEB) P 3.1%
0930 GBP Central Government NCR (FEB) P -20.5b
0930 GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (FEB) C 0.8b | P -9.8b
0930 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (FEB) P -18.8b
0930 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (FEB) C 0.7b | P -10.5b
1230 CAD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) P 0.0%
1400 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (FEB) C 0.9% | P -1.3%
1700 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (MAR 20) P 792

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Gapping lower on the opening and rising steadily higher from just below the 1.1550 area to push steadily through to early Tokyo pushing through the 1.1650 level before grinding to a halt and moving into the Tokyo opening around the 1.1630 level, Tokyo were initially steady sellers falling back to just the 1.1550 before quickly back to push through the 1.1500 areas and testing repeatedly to the 1.1480 area to form a base through to the grey hours, grey hour buying saw the market running through to the 1.1600 level again before running to the London session and dipping once again this time through to the 1.1470 level for the low of the day, the market ranged through to the NYK session around the 1.1550 levels before NYK slowly rising through to the London close pushing to the highs just below the 1.1800 areas dropping quickly having failed to follow through to start a slow drift through to the close to finish the day just off the lows of the day in a very excited market.
• JPY: A steady rise through the day with the market opening a little lower around the 107.80 area and pushing through to the Tokyo session testing the 108.50 areas before pausing for the opening, after the brief pause the market again pushed this time to the 109.00 level holding as before stepping to the next level, and holding just short of the 109.60 the move through to the London session saw the market dipping back to 108.50 before running into the official opening holding around the 109.00 level with a steady rise through to the 110.00 level and expected stronger offers saw the market holding deep through the NYK session before slowly breaking through and testing through to just short of the 111.00 area.
• AUD: Rising a little from the opening around the 0.5770 area and testing lightly through the 0.5800 area the market held through into the Tokyo session before dropping quickly through to the 0.5510 area before finding some bids, the market bounced but was unable to push back through the 0.5600 level dipping a second time on a more convincing attempt however, the result was the same and the Oz held through to the grey hours before starting a steady drive through to the opening levels, London came in selling and the market pushed back to the mid 0.5740 level bouncing then holding around the 0.5710-20 areas through to the NYK session in very quiet trading considering the early moves, the NYK session saw the sellers squeezed out of the market as the market lifted off the 0.7500 level to push quickly through to the 0.5820 level then slowing its ascent before pushing through to the 0.5860 level and running again this time testing to the 0.5960 level before running out of buyers before dropping back to the 0.5860 level and drifting through to the close.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.0910 area the market ran quickly through to the 1.0980 area before holding through to the Tokyo session, opening in Tokyo saw the market dropping back through to range around the 1.0900 area and holding in a reasonably tight range to the London opening, a slight rise on London opening however, the selling appeared and the market dipped through to the 1.0810 areas initially bouncing off the level and after a couple of hours the market again started to run lower, dipping steadily through to the 1.0800 level pausing before running again this time dipping to the 1.0720 area before holding and bouncing through to hold through to the London close tightly around the 1.0800 level, with London out of the market the selling reappeared this time quickly testing the 1.0700 and eventually breaking to the 1.0660 level and holding in a 1.0660-1.0700 range through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD GDP YoY (4Q) A 1.8% | C 1.7% | P 2.3%
NZD GDP s.a. QoQ (4Q) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
JPY National CPI YoY (FEB) A 0.4% | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (FEB) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.8%
JPY National CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY (FEB) A 0.6% | C 0.7% | P 0.8%
AUD Employment Change (FEB) A 26.7k | C 8.5k | P 13.5k | R 12.9k
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 5.1% | C 5.3% | P 5.3%
AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) A 6.7k | P 46.2k | R 45.2k
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin
AUD RBA Cash Rate Target (MAR 19) A 0.25% | P 0.5%
JPY All Industry Activity Index MoM (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.5% | P 0.0%
AUD RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech
CHF SNB Publishes 2019 sustainability report
CHF SNB Publishes annual report
CHF SNB Policy Rate (MAR 19) A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest rate (MAR 19) A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 7) A 1701k | C 1735k | P 1722k | R 1699k
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 14) A 281k | C 219k | P 211k
USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (MAR) A-12.7 | C 10.0 | P 36.7
USD Leading Index (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.8%

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