Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.205 | EURUSD 1.08817 | AUDUSD 0.59593 | NZDUSD 0.58361 | USDCAD 1.41916 | USDCHF 0.97717 | GBPUSD 1.18889 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09337 | 1.08691

USDJPY                111.311 | 110.463

GBPUSD               1.19053 | 1.17789

USDCHF               0.97757 | 0.9736

AUDUSD              0.59570 | 0.58707

NZDUSD               0.58538 | 0.57771

USDCAD               1.42683 | 1.41958

EURCHF               1.06525 | 1.06019

EURGBP               0.92381 | 0.91429

EURJPY                121.065 | 120.515

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Dipping from the opening to push through to the 1.1780 area before bouncing and slowly pushing through to the 1.1880 level and then ranging around the 1.1850 level in quiet and weak trading for the pair, . light offers through to the 1.1850 level with congestion forming in the area and likely to continue around the sentimental areas through to 1.2100 level with the possibility of stronger stops through the level and weak resistance giving rise to a possible short squeeze, downside bids into the 1.1550 level and likely to increase into the 1.1500  level and stronger bids on any dip  below the level towards 1.1450 and 1.1400 sentimental levels likely to provide significant bids until the market can break through the 1.1380 and the downside look vulnerable.
  • JPY: Opening on its highs the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session before quickly dropping from the 111.20 area to push through the 111.00 level pause and run again this time through to the 110.45 level before finding a base and although the bounce was weak the market started a slow steady rise through to the 110.85 level with two failures before settling into the 110.70 area for the move into the grey hours, congestion to the downside protecting the 109.50 level and the possibility for a deeper move through to the 108,00 area and possible better support Topside offers increasing through the 111.50 level and likely weak stops on a break of the 111.70 area and opening a test of 112.00 before renewed resistance through to the 112.20 level and breakout stops appearing through to the 112.50 area.
  • AUD: A quiet opening before dropping quickly off from just above the 0.5950 level through to the 59 cents area and some two way trading before buyers gave up and the market again dipped, not as deep but forcing its way to the 0.5870 level before buyers started to reappear and a steady rise through to push above the 59 cents level to the 0.5930 area through to the grey hours, topside light congestion through the sentimental values with stronger offers into the 0.6050-80 level  initially any move through the level is likely to see weakness through to the 61 cents area stronger offers appear and weak stops on a break of the 0.6120-30 level to quickly target 62 cent, downside bids light through to the 0.5800 levels with possibly some weak bids hanging around the area through to the 0.5550 level and stronger bids from therein,
  • EUR: Holding quietly through to the Tokyo session around the 1.0885 level however, once in Tokyo the Euro quickly broke through the 1.0900 level to test through to the 1.0935 area before drifting back to the figure level and then holding quietly just below the 1.0920 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.0940-60 level with light congestion before stronger offers start to appear on a test through to the 1.1000-20 level with strong stops likely through the level and the market opening for a leg up to the 1.1080-1.1100 level, downside bids light through the 1.0800 level with stronger congestion just through the level and likely to continue through to the 1.0750 area before weak stops appear and downside becomes vulnerable to another probe lower to the 1.0600-1.0550 levels

 

Overnight News

USD:

Senate aims to vote today on $2t Coronavirus virus relief – WTP

Oil Market shows fear that US is running out of storage space – BBG

Trump: Large sections of the US can re-open faster than others –

US Joblessness set to spike as virus takes toll on business

Proposed USD2.2t Senate bill:

$250b unemployment insurance

$301b direct payments to households

$349b in loans to small businesses

$500b for loans, loan guarantees or other aid to businesses, states, municipalities

$150b in direct aid to states

$221b    in variety of tax benefits for businesses

$340b in supplemental spending including healthcare and public transit

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

0700      EUR       German GfK Consumer Confidence (APR) C 7.7 | P 9.8

0900      EUR       ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

0930      GBP        Retail Sales Ex-Auto Fuel MoM (FEB) C 1.1% | P 1.2%

1200      GBP        BoE asset Purchase Target (APR) C 635b | P 435b

1200      GBP        BoE Bank Rate (MAR 26) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

1230      USD       Advance Goods Trade Balance C -63.8b | P -65.5b

1230      USD       GDP Annualized QoQ (4Q T) C 2.1% | P 2.1%

1230      USD       Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 21) C 1500k | P 281k

1230      USD       Continuing Claims (MAR 14) C 1782k | P 1701k

1230      USD       Core PCE QoQ (4Q T) C 1.2% | P 1.2%

1230      USD       GDP Price Index (4Q T) C 1.3% | P 1.3%

1230      USD       Personal Consumption (4Q T) C 1.7% | P 1.7%

1230      USD       Wholesale Inventories MoM (FEB P) C -0.4% | P -0.4%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow rise from the opening lows saw the market rise through to the 1.1800 level before holding steady between the 1.1760-1.1800 through deep into Tokyo before pushing lightly through the 1.1800 level and stretching to the 1.1820 level for the move into the grey hours, rising through to the 1.1850 level for the move to the London opening and a steady push from the opening through to the 1.1970 on a tight channelled rise, the market drifted having hit the highs for the day and held around the 1.1850 level for the move into NYK and the US market were USD buyers through to the close in London testing through to the 1.1650 in a long round of steady selling before bouncing a little and pushing through to the 1.1800-40 level, another leg up saw the market holding around the 1.1900 through to the close.
  • JPY: A steady drift through the early part of the session from early highs just above the 111.50 level test through to the 110.80 area before finding a base and running slowly back to the opening level for the move into the grey hours, London did very little with the market ranging around the 111.35 area through to the NYK session with one brief move above the 111.55 level, NYK moved in and extended the high on a push towards the 111.70 level however, the levels held for a second time and the market drifted through to the close holding just above the 111.20.
  • AUD: Dipping from the opening to move from the early high around the 0.5990 area to test into the Tokyo session touching the 0.5930 area before finding some support and a slow rise through to the highs again, midsession saw strong buying to push through to the 0.60000 level peaking around the 0.6030 level pushing into the London opening holding those levels, early morning in London saw the market pushing to the days highs just through the 0.6070 level before initially slowly drifting through the 0.6030 level then triggering weak stops on a dip to the 0.5990 level for the move through into the NYK session and USD buying moving through to send the AUD testing through to the 0.5930 level and the lows of the day before a long run to the close holding the 0.5950 area.
  • EUR: A fairly quiet range through the first half of the day with the Euro rising of its initial lows to the 1.0810 level before slowly drifting back to the opening just below the 1.0800 level and spiking to the 1.0765 area before then holding throughout to the London close around the 1.0810 level with several attempts higher but only once London left did the market break through to steadily push through the 1.0850 level and grind through to the 1.0890 level for the move to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

NZD       Trade Balance (FEB) A 594m | C 550m | P -340m

NZD       Trade Balance 12mth YTD (FEB) A -3260m | C -3418m | P -3866m

GBP        CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.8%

GBP        Core CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.7% | C 1.5% | P 1.6%

GBP        CPIH YoY (FEB) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.8%

GBP        CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P -0.3%

GBP        House Price Index YoY (JAN) A 1.3% | C 2.7% | P 2.2%

USD       MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 20) A -29.4 | P -8.4%

USD       Durable Goods Orders (FEB P) A 1.2% | C -1.0% | P -0.2%

USD       Durable Ex Transportation (FEB P) A -0.6% | C -0.4% | P 0.8%

USD       House Price Index MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.6%

USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventory (MAR 20) A 1623k | P 1954k

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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