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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT

For Today

• GBP: Opening a little lower the market struggled for direction through into the Tokyo session initially testing the 1.2230 level before recovering and filling the small gap on the charts to test to just above the 1.2260 area and then a slow drift through to make the lows around the 1.2210 area through early morning in Tokyo, the market recovered to the opening levels into midsession before holding quietly around the 1.2240 area for the grey hour, Weak offers through the topside through to the 1.2500 level where congestion increases and likely to continue through the 1.2550 area even though there could be some light stops the congestion is likely to continue through to 1.2600 level before opening the topside and the market free to move higher over the coming days, downside bids through to the 1.2200 level with limited sentimental bids through to stronger congestive bids likely to appear before though to the 1.2100 level. Weak stops on a dip through should see stronger bids building in the 1.2000 area.
• JPY: More of a cautious rise through the Tokyo session with the market opening just below Fridays close and testing steadily through to the 109.00 level from the 108.40 area in early Tokyo to make the high just short of the 109.10 level before ranging around the 108.90 level for the bulk of the session, Downside bids likely into and 107.00 level however, a break here opens the chance of further downside losses with the likelihood of very little until the 105.00 area. Topside offers light through the 109.00 level and likely to see increasing resistance only as the market pushes for the 109.70-80 level with strong offers likely into the 110.00-20 level before weak stops and the market opening a little.
• AUD: Opening a little stronger the market quickly dipped to fill the gap from the 0.6015 level testing the 0.5990 area before ranging quietly through into the Tokyo session around the figure level, A little bounce after the AUD numbers saw the market quickly test through to the 0.6050 level for the high of the day before drifting through the balance of the session to hold around the 0.6020 area to the grey hour, topside see’s limited congestion around the 0.6200 level and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 63 cents level where stronger offers possibly lie, downside bids light through to the 59 cents level with some congestion there before opening for another test to the 58 cent area and weak bids through to the 55 cents level.
• EUR: A very quiet Euro session with the market holding above the 1.0800 level for the most part and centring around the 1.0810 area through to the grey hour, several attempts to push beyond the 1.0820 level failed with the market looking to push through to London testing that level with a little more strength. Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

Overnight News

NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr: RBNZ can give monetary support for as long as needed – BBG
Orr: Economy will emerge vibrant, refreshed, sustainable – BBG
Orr: Firms will fail, unemployment will rise – BBG
Orr: NZ is in a globally enviable fiscal position – BBG
Orr: Can use QE, other tools to provide monetary support – BBG
RBNZ not preparing Banks for negative OCR at the moment – Trade the news
AUD:
Economy to contract 4% in 2020 – AFR
JPY:
Abe starting preparations to declare of state of emergency – JPY media
GBP:
Boris Johnson admitted to Hospital for tests in precaution with persistent symptoms 10 days after being tested positive – BBG
USD:
Trump: Loan program has been flawless, haven’t heard of glitch – BBG
Trump: Small business loan program way ahead of schedule – BBG
Trump: Have good number of ventilators ready to move – BBG
Trump: Could have some ventilator shortages – BBG
Trump: Very disappointed In 3m, should be taking care of US
Trump: 3m will have price to pay – BBG
Trump: The risk of virus resurgence is real – BBG
Trump: Asked India to release some Hydroxychloroquine – BBG
Trump: This may be the toughest week – BBG
Trump: Some areas not hard hit making inflated supply requests – BBG
Trump: He’d use tariffs if needed to protect energy jobs – BBG

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening on its highs around the 1.2410 level the market drifted slowly through the Asian session to move into the grey hours holding the 1.2365 area, early London saw limited buying through into early morning before dropping quickly back to the 1.2330 level before pausing, and running quickly lower again on a secondary move through to the 1.2270 level to range through into the NYK session between the 1.2270-1.2300 levels, NYK were light sellers from the opening testing through to the low just above the 1.2205 area for the London close and then a slow steady recovery through to finish the day around that 1.2270 area.
• JPY: Rising after a quiet opening to test the 108.15 level into early Tokyo the market struggled for direction with the market dipping back and touching a few weak stops on a dip to the 107.80 level before finding a base for the move through into the London session, London were steady USD buyers through the day with the market slowly grinding its way through to the 108.50 level and ranging through the NYK opening and through to hold around the level to late in the session before a slight dip and recovery for the close but unable to push through the 108.65 level again.
• AUD: A quiet Asian session with the Oz rising a little into the Tokyo session to push to the 0.6065 level before dipping in early Tokyo and running slowly through to make the high for the day just through the 0.6075 level and a quick move lower as the market moved into the London session pushing through to midmorning testing the 0.5980 level and the low of the day, the rest of the session saw the market holding around the 0.6000 level and finishing just below the level in fairly quiet trading.
• EUR: Opening around its highs the Euro slipped slowly through into the Tokyo session drifting through to the 1.0835 level before finding some limited support but never able to regain the opening around the 1.0860 level the market moved through to the grey hour again drifting and once the London session opened the market dipped quickly through the 1.0810 level to range quietly in early London around the 1.0800 level, early NYK sellers saw the market test just through the 1.0780 level ranging around the area through to the London close before recovering a little to push back above the 1.0800 level for the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD AIG Performance of Construction Index (MAR) A 37.9 | P 42.7
CNY Caixin China PMI Composite (MAR) A 46.7 | P 27.5
CNY Caixin China PMI Services (MAR) A 43 | C 39.5 | P 26.5
EUR Germany Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P
EUR France Sovereign Debt to be rate by S&P
EUR Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A 3.0% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%
USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR) A -701k | C -100k | P 273k | R 275k
USD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 4.4% | C 3.8% | P 3.5%
USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (MAR) A 3.1% | C 3.0% | P 3.0%
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR) A 34.2 | C 34.2 | P 34.4
USD Change in Private Payrolls A -713k | C -117k | P 228k | R 242k
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (MAR) A 52.5 | C 44.7 | P 57.3
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 3) A 664 | P 728

Best Regards
Andy

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