Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.236 | EURUSD 1.07934 | AUDUSD 0.60876 | NZDUSD 0.59351 | USDCAD 1.41102| USDCHF 0.97865 | GBPUSD 1.22315 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.08278 | 1.07824
USDJPY 109.281 | 108.67
GBPUSD 1.22935 | 1.21661
USDCHF 0.97913 | 0.97572
AUDUSD 0.61540 | 0.60773
NZDUSD 0.59826 | 0.59249
USDCAD 1.41417 | 1.40716
EURCHF 1.05681 | 1.05602
EURGBP 0.88602 | 0.88055
EURJPY 117.946 | 117.531
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2235 level the market dipped quickly on the opening of the Tokyo session quickly pushing to the 1.2165 level before bouncing and a slow rise through to the 1.2250 level after several hours, the market stalled a little before slowly running through to the 1.2275 high for the session and running through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2260 level, Topside congestion through to the 1.2350 area and likely to increase on any move to test the 1.2400 ;level with weak stops doing very little on a move through to the 1.2450 level and increasing offers likely to 1.2500. Downside bids light through each sentimental level with the 1.2000 likely to be the strongest level if that is possible and the downside then o0pening through to the 1.1650 and possible stronger bids appearing.
- JPY: A slow drift through the session with market moving off the early highs around the 109.25 areas to push gradually through to the 108.70 level before finding a base and ranging lightly through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.50 level with bids likely to increase through to the 107.00 level with strong stops on any dip through the 106.80 level otherwise the market is lightly populated between the 108-109 levels, Topside offers light through to the 109.50-70 level with possibility of weak stops on a break through with increasing offers into the 110.00-20 level and stops again reappearing for any move above there with congestion then appearing in depth to slow any move.
- AUD: Opening quietly around the 0.6085 level with a slight drift into the Tokyo session testing just below the 0.6080 level the market then rose strongly through to the 0.6115 level and ranged around the level for several hours testing through the 0.6125 level but with very little conviction, with no change in the cash rate as expected and breaking towards the 0.6150 level before running into light interference and holding below the level for the move through to the grey hour, Stronger offers on a test through the 62 cents level with weak stops on a break of the 0.6225-30 level and opening the market to a weaker sentimental 63 cents level with similar levels of resistance onwards. Downside bids light through to the 0.5900 level and limited support before opening for a further test of the downside and the stronger 58 cents level.
- EUR: Major world events and the Euro is kept in check with the market limited, a slow rise from the early lows around the 1.0785 level and rising steadily through to the grey hour pushing lightly above the 1.0820 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
USD:
This could be a long fight; People should be told the truth – WPT
NZD:
Massive NZ Confidence fall may understate degree of pessimism – ANZ – DJ
GBP:
Boris Johnson taken into intensive care
AUD:
RBA: Will do what’s necessary to achieve 3yr yield target
RBA: Committed to doing what it can to support jobs
RBA: Won’t raise rate until confident CPI sustainable in target
RBA: Jobless rate expected to rise to highest in many years
RBA: Policy response helps ensure economy well placed to recover
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey A -70 | P -21
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (Mar) A 38.7 | P 47.0
JPY Labour Cash Earnings YoY (FEB) A 1.0% | C 0.2% | P 1.5%
JPY Overall Household Spending YoY (FEB) A -0.3% | -3.3% | P -3.9%
JPY Real Cash Earnings YoY (FEB) A 0.5% | C -0.7% | P 0.7%
AUD Trade Balance A 4361m | C 3750m | P 5210m
AUD RBA Cash Rate Target (APR 7) A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
JPY Coincident Index (FEB P) A 0.6% | P 0.8%
JPY Leading Index CI (FEB P) A 92.1 | C 92.0 | P 90.5
0600 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. & w.d.a. YoY (FEB) A | C -3.0% | P -1.3%
0830 GBP Unit Labour Costs YoY (4Q) A | P 3.6%
1100 MXN CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 3.37% | P 3.7%
1900 USD Consumer Credit (FEB) A | C 14.0b | P 12.021b
2350 JPY Machine Orders YoY (FEB) A | C -3.0% | P -0.3%
2350 JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (FEB) A | C 2021.5b | P 1626.8b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening a little lower from Friday the market drifted in the first hour to the 1.2230 level before lifting on the move through to the Tokyo session closing the gap on the charts and once done drifted off from the 1.2270 level through to the 1.2210 level to make the low for the day, as the market moved through into the grey hour the market had started a slow recovery and once into the London session fully pushed through to test through to the 1.2300 level ranging for several hours through to the NYK session in the 1.2300-20 area before drifting off a little and centring more on the 1.2300 level until late in the session when news that Boris Johnson had been taken into intensive care 18hrs after being admitted with Covid-19 with 10 days of symptoms, Cable dropped quickly back from above the 1.2300 level and tested the 1.2210 level bouncing a little to above the 1.2250 level and then holding briefly for the close around the 1.2230 areas.
- JPY: Opening a little lower the market made no pretence in quickly pushing through the gap and testing through to the 108.60 level in early trading and then moving into the Tokyo session the market continued to rise pushing quickly through to the 109.00 level to peak around the 109.10 level the market moved through the balance of the Asian session ranging in the 108.80-00 level before early London moved in and started a steady rise through to the London open pushing through the 109.35 level before dipping back from the high for the day and holding for a few hours around the 109.20 level before dipping on the NYK opening back to sub 109.00 and then rising to range around the 109.00 level again finishing the day just short of the highs.
- AUD: Opening higher than Fridays close the market filled the gap and drifted through to early Tokyo making the days lows around the 0.5990 level before catching a quick rise through to the 0.6050 after the AUD numbers, the market drifted through the balance of the Asian session holding above the 60 cents area and once into the grey hour the market started to rise steadily through the session pushing through to the London close testing the 61 cent level before drifting a little through to the close.
- EUR: A reasonably quiet session through the day with the Euro opening around the 1.0810 level and ranging around that level through to the London opening, London pushed the market through to above the 1.0830 level to make the high of the day however, the better factory orders! Was balanced by poor Construction numbers saw the market dropping back off and quickly testing through the 1.0790 level however, while the market showed some choppiness it remained around the 1.0800 level through into the NYK session and apart from a quick stab for the 1.0770 level lows the market remaine3d around the 1.08 level for the most part.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR F) A -34 | P -9
AUD TD Securities Inflation YoY (MAR) A 1.5% | P 1.6%
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. YoY (FEB) A 1.5% | C -0.2% | P -1.4%
EUR Markit Germany Construction PMI (FEB) A 42 | P 55.8
GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (MAR) A 39.3 | C 44.0 | P 52.6
NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey A -70 | P -21
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (Mar) A 38.7 | P 47.0
JPY Labour Cash Earnings YoY (FEB) A 1.0% | C 0.2% | P 1.5%
JPY Overall Household Spending YoY (FEB) A -0.3% | -3.3% | P -3.9%
JPY Real Cash Earnings YoY (FEB) A 0.5% | C -0.7% | P 0.7%
Best Regards
Andy
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