Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.496 | EURUSD 1.09296 | AUDUSD 0.63388 | NZDUSD 0.60602 | USDCAD 1.39727 | USDCHF 0.96627 | GBPUSD 1.24664 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09437 | 1.09185
USDJPY 108.590 | 108.332
GBPUSD 1.24868 | 1.24359
USDCHF 0.96789 | 0.96536
AUDUSD 0.63473 | 0.63124
NZDUSD 0.60831 | 0.60639
USDCAD 1.40099 | 1.39564
EURCHF 1.05721 | 1.05576
EURGBP 0.87785 | 0.87706
EURJPY 118.710 | 118.40
For Today
- GBP: Generally a quiet session with limited liquidity as the market moves through to bank holidays around the world for the Easter period, opening around the 1.2460 level the market saw some spikes through out however, pre Tokyo seemed the worst period with the market spiking at one point to the 1.2490 area before dipping back however, generally the market remained centred around the opening levels and holding around the 1.2465 level for the move through to the bank holiday London, Topside offers into the 1.2500 area before weak stops are likely to appear on a push through the 1.2510-20 areas and opening the market to weak resistance around the sentimental levels and likely to be open to a medium term run through to the 1.2800 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with weak support in the area increasing around the sentimental levels before stronger support appears from the 1.2200 level through to the 1.2100 area.
- JPY: A limited rise into the Tokyo opening pushing through to the 108.60 level and then starting a slow steady drift lower after an hour or so of choppy movement, the market tested through to the 108.30 level to hold for the move into the London session. Downside bids light through to the 107.50 level with bids likely to increase through to the 107.00 level with strong stops on any dip through the 106.80 level otherwise the market is lightly populated between the 108-109 levels, Topside offers light through to the 109.50-70 level with possibility of weak stops on a break through with increasing offers into the 110.00-20 level and stops again reappearing for any move above there with congestion then appearing in depth to slow any move.
- AUD: Pre-Tokyo market sees bank holidays in Oz and Kiwi and the market a little thin, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market initially drifting away from the 0.6340 level to test to the 0.6315 area before light buying helped the market through to the 0.6345 area and the move to bank holiday London. Topside offers increasing from the 0.6380 level through the 0.6400 area with stops likely on a break above the 0.6420 area however, with a bank holiday session for the most part any push higher is limited. Downside bids light back through the 63 cents levels and weak stops through the 0.6280 area and the 62 cents very vulnerable.
- EUR: Moving from the opening around the 1.0925 level rising a little in early Tokyo the market drifted off to test the 1.0920 area in quiet trading before renewing the light buying through to the 1.0945 level and holding just off the level for the move into London, Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
AUD:
Government Pension fund access plan may top target – BBG
RBA to big superannuation funds: don’t expect a liquidity bailout – AFR
OPEC:
Meeting ends with no deal with talks set to resume later today – BBG
USD:
Bill Gates: US Govt. can’t wave a wand and all of a sudden, the economy is anything like it was before the virus – BBG
FED to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support – BBG
EUR:
EU Finance Chiefs finally agree on $590b virus rescue package – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.2% | P 2.2%
JPY Bank Lending incl. trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.0% | P 2.1%
CNY CPI YoY (MAR) A 4.3% | C 4.9% | P 5.2%
CNY CPI YoY (MAR) A -1.5% | C -1.1% | P -0.4%
All Day NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (MAR) A | P 9.2%
1230 USD CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 1.6% | P 2.3%
1230 USD CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (MAR) A | C 2.3% | P 2.4%
1230 USD CPI MoM (MAR) A | C -0.3% | P 0.1%
1230 USD CPI Index Ex Food and Energy MoM (MAR) A | C 0.1% | P 0.2%
1230 USD Real Average Hourly Earnings YoY (MAR) A | P 0.6%
1230 USD Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY (MAR) A | P 0.7%
1630 USD Fed’s Mester holds virtual Forum on US economy and Virus
1800 USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAR) A | C -150.0b | P -235.3b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Asian buying initially saw the market pushing through the 1.2400 level however, the market didn’t follow through and slowly drifted into the grey hours holding just below the level with early sellers in Europe selling it back into the London opening to test to the 1.2360 level, London quickly recovered the losses and pushed to the 1.2400 area fore a short range around the level before starting another steady rise to the 1.2450 levels, the move through to the NYK session saw the cable drifting a little to test back to the 1.2400 level however, like the London opening quick buying for the long weekend saw the Cable testing quickly through the 1.2480 level and while the range was wide through to the close the market centred around the 1.2460 area.
- JPY: A steady rise of the USDJPY saw the highs into midmorning in Japan testing the 109.08 area for the high of the day, and a quiet session through to the London session holding around the 108.90 area in a tight range, the move through to late morning in London saw the market starting to drift a little and testing into the 108.75 area before finding some light buyers for the move to the NYK session, NYK sold with purpose as the initial jobless numbers and continuing claims came out worse than expected “if you actually thought the consensus could be accurate and not changed from what I typed yesterday” USDJPY quickly dipped to 108.60, a brief pause and then another dip to 108.40 for the end of London and off again to test to the 108.20 in repeated steps before rising slowly through to the 108.50 level for the close in light buying.
- AUD: A steady range through to the NYK session with only limited movement through the period and moving off the 0.6225 area opening and testing into the London opening to just below the 62 cents area before returning to the previous range holding around the 0.6225 level and unable to push above the 0.6250 until NYK came in and a sudden rise to the 63 cents level, a slow push through to Sydney opening saw the market quickly push to test on a spike to the 0.6360 area before holding through to the close.
- EUR: As with the Oz a quiet session through to NYK, opening just above the 1.0850 level and centring around the 1.0860 level through into the London session with minor tests above the 1.0880 level on a couple of occasions and dipping on the London opening to test the 1.0840 area, NYK cane in buying on the back of the numbers and the Euro pushed quickly through the 1.0900 lev3l and ranged around the 1.0935 level through to the close with a minor test above the 1.0950 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAR) A 11.0% | C 10.0% | P 29.0%
JPY Kuroda Speech at Branch Managers meeting
EUR German Trade Balance (FEB) A 20.8b | C 16.5b | P 13.9b
GBP Construction Output YoY (FEB) A -2.7% | C 0.2% | P 1.6% | R 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production YoY (FEB) A -2.8% | C -3.0% | P -2.9%b | R -2.8%
GBP Manufacturing Production YoY (FEB) A -3.9% | C -4.0% | P -3.6% | R -3.7%
GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.0%
GBP Monthly GDP MoM (FEB) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.0%
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (FEB) A -2793m | C -1000m | P 2232m | R 2409m
GBP Visible Trade Balance (FEB) A 11487m | C -6000m | P -2720m | R -5759m
JPY Machine Tool Orders YoY (MAR P) A -40.8% | P -29.6%
CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR) A -1010k | C -500k | P 30.3k
CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 7.8% | C 7.4% | P 5.6%
CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) A -474k | P 37.6k
CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees A 6.1% | C 4.4% | P 4.3%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 4) A 6606k | C 5000k | P 6648k | R 6867k
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 28) A 7455k | P 3029k | R 3059k
USD U. of Mich Sentiment (APR P) A 71 | C 75.0 | P 89.1
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 10) A 602 | P 664
Best Regards
Andy
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