Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.485 | EURUSD 1.08239 | AUDUSD 0.63952 | NZDUSD 0.60182 | USDCAD 1.40969 | USDCHF 0.97293 | GBPUSD 1.23661 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08350 | 1.08123

USDJPY                107.650 | 107.290

GBPUSD               1.24094 | 1.23625

USDCHF               0.97461 | 0.97275

AUDUSD              0.64396 | 0.63802

NZDUSD               0.60524 | 0.60099

USDCAD               1.41155 | 1.40645

EURCHF               1.05438 | 1.05329

EURGBP               0.87515 | 0.8731

EURJPY                116.509 | 116.171

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening unchanged from Friday the market held quietly through to early Tokyo before rising quickly through to spike to the 1.2410 level on the BoJ announcement then holding for a few hours around the 1.2390 level before rising again lightly through the 1.2400 level to hold quietly through to the grey hours helped by some GBPJPY buying. downside likely to see continual congestion through to the 1.2200 area with some concentration around the 1.2250 level then increasing through the 1.2200 area before weak stops appear and further congestion to the 1.2150 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2450 level with increasing offers through to the 1.2500 level and stronger offers likely to continue through the 1.2550 level and likely catching further heavy offers through to the 1.2600.
  • JPY: Given the data release the result was limited and uninspiring, opening around the 107.60 level dropping back in early trading to the 107.40 level bouncing to head to the highs again before the release of the data saw limited buying of the JPY pushing USDJPY through to the 107.30 level for the move through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
  • AUD: Opening just off the close on Friday, rising from the 0.6385 area slowly rising to the 64 cents level before the BoJ release helped the Oz rise through to just short of the 0.6440 area with minor stops triggered along the way and a slow steady range around the 0.6435 level. downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offers stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
  • EUR: Limited reaction to the weaker USD, Euro opened unchanged and slid slowly through to the 1.0810 area for the move through into Tokyo, rising a little once the BoJ made there statement and after a brief flirtation with the 1.0830 pushing off the 1.0820 area for its third push through the level and holding just beyond for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids through the 1.0760 area is likely to to the 1.0740 weak congestion from there stronger bids have possibly been building over the past few weeks with weak stops on a break through the 1.0690 areas and opening deeper moves. Topside offers through 1.0900 level and into the 1.0920 area have been building however, weak stops on a push through the level are likely to then see weakness for a short distance before stronger offers into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

 

Overnight News

 

OIL:

Oil under renewed pressure as glut overwhelms production cuts – BBG

Prepare for $20b hit in LNG revenue – Energy News

GBP:

Boris Johnson could ease lockdown before May 7 deadline – TEL

NZD:

Kiwi headwinds growing as RBNZ keeps option of negative rates – BBG

JPY:

BoJ: Strengthens Stimulus

BoJ: Increases buying of corporate bonds, commercial paper

BoJ: Maintains policy balance rate at -0.1%

BoJ: 10yr JGB yield target at about 0.0%

BoJ: Enables unlimited JGB Buying

BoJ: widens access to lending operation to more banks

BoJ: Changes maturity for corporate bond buys

BoJ: FY2020 GDP forecast is -5.0 to -3.0%

BoJ: Ditches ceiling in buying of each corporate bond

BoJ: Total of corporate bonds, CP to be 20t Yen

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

JPY         BoJ 10yr Yield target (APR 28) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision (APR 27) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

2330      JPY         Jobless Rate (MAR) A | C 2.5% | P 2.4%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A fairly limited day for the Cable with the market ranging through the Asian session around the 1.2350 level testing as high as the 1.2360 and dipping through to just above the 1.2340 area for the range until the grey hour with the market sliding lower for the move into the London opening with fresh impetus sending the market to the low into midmorning testing the 1.2300 level, the market slowly lifted from the level and rallied reasonably strongly to the highs of the day for the move into the NYK session before dropping back from the 1.2380 area to the 1.2350 level and rallying into the latter part of the session and close testing towards the 1.2370 level.
  • JPY: Moving through into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 107.60 level and rallying in a limited move to test the 107.75 level and the high of the day. The market dipped back and moved through into the London session trading around the 107.65 level and only started to slip late in the morning and through into the NYK session initially testing to the opening level and then on the NYK open dipping through to the 107.40 and struggling to move away from the level until the final hour of the day and even then only just recovering the 107.50 area.
  • AUD: Limited rise into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 0.6370 area dropping back from the early highs around the 0.6380 to test through to the 0.6355 area and range quietly through to the grey hour, a minor dip through to the 06335 level for the low of the day before starting a slow rise through to the opening area and again testing the 0.6380 into the NYK opening and eventually slowly rising through the final hours to test just short of the 64 cents level.
  • EUR: A light push lower into the Tokyo session saw the market dipping from the early highs around the 1.0780 area to base along the 1.0760 through into the Grey hour, a quick push lower into the London session saw the low of the day around the 1.0725 area before slowly rising through the session to just short of the early base area around the 1.0760 level before triggering some weak stops and squeezing through to the 1.0800 level for the move into NYK, steady buying from the opening struggled with the 1.0810 level before a quick push through to the 1.0820 level fail and dip back to the 1.0765 area and a slow climb through to the close testing this time to the 1.0830 level for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence (APR P) A -34 | C -40 | P -34

JPY         National CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%

JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%

JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (MAR) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index MoM (FEB) A -0.6% | C -0.5% | P 0.8%

EUR       Italy Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

GBP        UK Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

GBP        Retail Sales ex-Auto Fuel YoY (MAR) A -4.1% | C -4.7% | P 0.5%

EUR       German IFO Business Climate (APR) A 74.3 | C 80.0 | P 86.1 | R 85.9

EUR       German IFO Current Assessment (APR) A 79.5 | C 81 | P 93 | R 92.9

EUR       German IFO Expectations (APR) A 69.4 | C 75.0 | P 79.7 | R 79.5

MXN      Economic Activity IGAE YoY (FEB) A -0.6% | C -0.9% | P -0.81%

USD       Durable Goods Orders (MAR P) A -14.4% | C -12.0% | P 1.2% | R 1.1%

USD       Durables Ex Transportation (MAR P) A -0.2% | C -5.8% | P -0.6% | R -0.7%

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment (APR F) A 71.8 | C 67.9 | P 71

USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 24) A 465 | P 529

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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