Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.182 | EURUSD 1.09524 | AUDUSD 0.65118 | NZDUSD 0.61396 | USDCAD 1.39448 | USDCHF 0.96535 | GBPUSD 1.2594 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09594 | 1.09348
USDJPY 107.402 | 107.028
GBPUSD 1.26000 | 1.25527
USDCHF 0.96686 | 0.96522
AUDUSD 0.65118 | 0.64566
NZDUSD 0.61242 | 0.60896
USDCAD 1.40071 | 1.39364
EURCHF 1.05889 | 1.05631
EURGBP 0.87136 | 0.87033
EURJPY 117.512 | 117156
For Today
- GBP: Opening around its highs just short of the 1.2600 level and lightly attempting to push back through before drifting through to the 1.2550 level and ranging around the 1.2560 area through to the grey hour, topside offers through the 1.2650 level and likely to continue through to the 1.2680 area before weak stops appear and the topside opens to the 1.2750 level and weak congestion starts to increases through to the 1.2800 level and possibly strong offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.2450 level and limited congestion likely to be building with weak stops below and opening the market for another test through to the 1.2350 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.20 area the market initially tested towards the 107.00 level before slowly rising through to the 107.40 into midsession before reversing and holding around the 107.15 area for the move into the grey hour, with much of the market out for May day celebrations, downside bids light through the 106.00 level but increasing just below the level with stops likely to appear on a strong break through the 105.90-80 level for a quick test through to the 105.50 area, light congestion is likely to slow any move with increasing bids through to the 105.20-104.80 area. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with likely limited congestion before weak stops appear on a push through the 108.20 level opening another run to the 109.00 area.
- AUD: A slow drift from the opening highs above the 0.6510 level testing into the Tokyo session holding the 0.6490 level through to early morning before starting a slow drift through to below the 0.6460 area in quiet trading, Topside offers likely to be congested around the sentimental 0.6550 level and likely to increase the closer to the 0.6600 area the market moves, with possible stronger offers still above that level, downside bids light through to the 0.6400 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6380 level and leaving patchy support through to the 0.6300 area and stronger stops below.
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session with most of Europe starting a long weekend, opening on its highs around the 1.0955 area the market drifted through to the 1.0935 level before recovering through to the 1.0945 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.0960 level likely to be somewhat weakened however, from the 1.0980 area the topside offers are likely to be reasonably strong with no real weakness until through the 1.1020-30 level and possible strong stops appearing. Downside bids light through to the 1.0820 level with limited bids on any dips to that area, weak stops through the 1.0780 level does open the downside to further losses however, possibly not today.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japanese GDP to shrink 22% in Q2 in biggest post-war drop – Nikkei
GBP/EUR:
Brexit trade talks face collapse unless EU abandon’s demands for continued access to UK fishing waters – TEL
EUR:
Macron issues ultimatum to Europe’s German Block; Cough up Covid Trillions or lose the single market – TEL
AUD:
CBA Australia Apr manufacturing PMI 44.1 vs. 49.7 in Mar – BBG
Australian FinMin says virus inquiry needed – DJ
NZD:
Job adds slump as virus hits hiring plans falling 6.4% QoQ – BBG
USD/CNY:
US Officials crafting retaliatory actions against China over Virus – WPT
Trump: He has seen evidence the virus originated in the Quhan institute of virology in China – RTRs
Trump: He cannot say why he has a high degree of confidence the virus originated at the Wuhan institute – RTRs
Trump: He could use tariffs to respond to China – RTRs
Trump: He does not have to stop debt payments to China, he can do tariffs (clarifying earlier comments) – RTRs
Trump: We have to protect the US Dollar – RTRs
Trump: Move on debt obligation could hurt sanctity, Currency – RTRs
Trump: The China trade deal now is secondary to what China did with the Virus – RTRs
Trump: Declines to say whether he holds Xi responsible for misinformation from China – RTRs
Trump: China either couldn’t stop the virus in terms of competence or they let it spread – RTRs
USD:
Trump: An extension of $600unemployment payments is being looked at – RTRs
Trump: Biden should respond to allegations of sexual misconduct; they could be false – RTRs
Kudlow denies report on cancelling China debt – CNBC
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index A 35.8 | P 53.7
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Foreign Bond Investment A -149.2b | P -423.2b
0600 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY A | C 2.5% | P 3%
0830 GBP Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final A | C 32.8 | P 47.8
0830 GBP Mortgage Approvals A | C 60k | P 73.55k
0830 GBP Mortgage Lending A | C 3.5b | P 4b
1330 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI A | P 46.1
1345 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI Final A | C 36.9 | P 48.5
1400 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI A | C 36.9 | P 49.1
1700 USD Baker Hughes Oil Total Rib Count A | P 465
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly and dipping through into the Tokyo session to test to the lows of the day just above the 1.2425 area before slowly rising through to the 1.2475 area for the move into the grey hour, light selling through the London opening testing the 1.2450 level again but repeating the Tokyo session with a slow rise off the London’s lows to push through to the 1.2500 level holding for a period and through to the NYK session around the 1.2520 level and repeating the same move with a dip back through the 1.2500 level however, what seems to have been a baited trap for Trump seemed to suggest that he was considering very draconian type measures against China before correcting and stating that the idea was foolish (or was he) USD Dropped back quickly and Cable quickly pushed to above the 1.2640 level before dropping back and holding the 1.2600 level through to the London close before slowly ranging through to the close just below the level.
- JPY: Holding quietly through the early part of the session around the 106.60 area before moving into the Tokyo session and USD buying moving through for the long weekend around the world and testing through to the 106.85 area before slowly drifting through into the grey hours testing to its lows pushing the 106.40 level before recovering a little to range through to the NYK session a switch to some of the other crosses for the market saw EURJPY and GBPJPY moving the USDJPY from the 106.45 level through quickly to the 107.20 before holding around the 107.00 area and through to the London close before running a second time to test the 107.50 before dipping back for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6560 area and ranging through into early Tokyo holding the 0.6550 level before dipping a little through to the 0.6525 area before returning to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, London saw a similar range with a gradual drift through to the 0.6530 area before dipping on the NYK session testing below the 0.6500 level for the low of the day, a recovery for the move through to the London close before quietly drifting to a close holding above the 65 cents.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the most part for the Euro until the NYK session and the Trump commentary, opening around the 1.0875 level and generally holding around the 1.0865 areas for the most part, the move into the NYK session initially saw USD buying and the low set around the 1.0835 level before a strong rally moved through the market to push the market to a stretch to the 1.0970 areas before stalling and drifting back a little and a quiet move to the close above the 1.0950 area,
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Industrial Production (P) YoY A -5.2% | P -5.7%
JPY Retail Sales A -4.6% | C -4.7% | P 1.7%
CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI A 50.8 | C 51 | P 52
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI A 53.2 | P 52.3
NZD ANZ Business Confidence A -66.6 | P -63.5
JPY Consumer Confidence A 21.6 | P 30.9
JPY Housing Starts YoY A -7.6% | C -16% | P -12.3%
EUR German Retail Sales YoY A -2.8% | P 6.4%
EUR German Unemployment Rate Harmonized A 3.5% | P 3.2%
CHF Retail Sales YoY A -5.6% | P 0.3%
EUR French Inflation Rate (P) YoY A 0.4% | P 0.7%
EUR Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash A -5.2% | C -4.4% | P 0.4%
EUR Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash A -4.1% | -3.2% | P 1.8%
CHF KOF Leading Indicators A 63.5 | C 63.5 | P 92.9
EUR German Unemployment Change A 373k | C 76k | P 1k
EUR German Unemployment Rate A 5.8% | C 5.2% | P 5%
EUR Italy Unemployment Rate A 8.4% | C 10.5% | P 9.7%
EUR Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 1.0%
EUR Eurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash A -3.8% | C -3.5% | P 0.1%
EUR Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash A -3.3% | C -3.1% | P 1.0%
EUR Eurozone Inflation Rate MoM Flash A 0.3% | P 0.5%
EUR Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash A 0.4% | C 0.1% | P 0.7%
EUR Eurozone Unemployment rate A 7.4% | C 7.7% | P 7.3%
EUR Inflation Rate (P) YoY A 0% | C -0.2% | P 0.1%
EUR GDP Growth Rate (A) YoY A -4.8% | C -5.1% | P 0.1%
EUR GDP Growth Rate (A) QoQ A -4.7% | C -5% | P -0.3%
MXN GDP Growth Rate (P) YoY A -1.6% | C -2.7% | P -0.5%
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision A 0% | C 0% | P 0%
CAD Average Weekly Earnings YoY A 3.7% | P 4%
CAD GDP MoM A 0% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY A 1.7% | C 1.6% | P 1.8%
USD PCE Price Index YoY A 1.3% | P 1.8%
USD Continuing Jobless Claims A 17992k | C 19238k | 159756k
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.2%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 3839k | C 3500k | P 4427k
USD Jobless Claims 4-week Average A 5033.25k | P 5786.5k
USD PCE Price Index A -0.3% | P 0.1%
USD Personal Income MoM A -2% | C -1.5% | P 0.6%
USD Personal Spending MoM A -7.5% | C -5% | P 0.2%
Best Regards
Andy
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