Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.182 | EURUSD 1.09524 | AUDUSD 0.65118 | NZDUSD 0.61396 | USDCAD 1.39448 | USDCHF 0.96535 | GBPUSD 1.2594 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.09594 | 1.09348

USDJPY                107.402 | 107.028

GBPUSD               1.26000 | 1.25527

USDCHF               0.96686 | 0.96522

AUDUSD              0.65118 | 0.64566

NZDUSD               0.61242 | 0.60896

USDCAD               1.40071 | 1.39364

EURCHF               1.05889 | 1.05631

EURGBP               0.87136 | 0.87033

EURJPY                117.512 | 117156

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around its highs just short of the 1.2600 level and lightly attempting to push back through before drifting through to the 1.2550 level and ranging around the 1.2560 area through to the grey hour, topside offers through the 1.2650 level and likely to continue through to the 1.2680 area before weak stops appear and the topside opens to the 1.2750 level and weak congestion starts to increases through to the 1.2800 level and possibly strong offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.2450 level and limited congestion likely to be building with weak stops below and opening the market for another test through to the 1.2350 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.20 area the market initially tested towards the 107.00 level before slowly rising through to the 107.40 into midsession before reversing and holding around the 107.15 area for the move into the grey hour, with much of the market out for May day celebrations, downside bids light through the 106.00 level but increasing just below the level with stops likely to appear on a strong break through the 105.90-80 level for a quick test through to the 105.50 area, light congestion is likely to slow any move with increasing bids through to the 105.20-104.80 area. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with likely limited congestion before weak stops appear on a push through the 108.20 level opening another run to the 109.00 area.
  • AUD: A slow drift from the opening highs above the 0.6510 level testing into the Tokyo session holding the 0.6490 level through to early morning before starting a slow drift through to below the 0.6460 area in quiet trading, Topside offers likely to be congested around the sentimental 0.6550 level and likely to increase the closer to the 0.6600 area the market moves, with possible stronger offers still above that level, downside bids light through to the 0.6400 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6380 level and leaving patchy support through to the 0.6300 area and stronger stops below.
  • EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session with most of Europe starting a long weekend, opening on its highs around the 1.0955 area the market drifted through to the 1.0935 level before recovering through to the 1.0945 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.0960 level likely to be somewhat weakened however, from the 1.0980 area the topside offers are likely to be reasonably strong with no real weakness until through the 1.1020-30 level and possible strong stops appearing. Downside bids light through to the 1.0820 level with limited bids on any dips to that area, weak stops through the 1.0780 level does open the downside to further losses however, possibly not today.

 

Overnight News

 

JPY:

Japanese GDP to shrink 22% in Q2 in biggest post-war drop – Nikkei

GBP/EUR:

Brexit trade talks face collapse unless EU abandon’s demands for continued access to UK fishing waters – TEL

EUR:

Macron issues ultimatum to Europe’s German Block; Cough up Covid Trillions or lose the single market – TEL

AUD:

CBA Australia Apr manufacturing PMI 44.1 vs. 49.7 in Mar – BBG

Australian FinMin says virus inquiry needed – DJ

NZD:

Job adds slump as virus hits hiring plans falling 6.4% QoQ – BBG

USD/CNY:

US Officials crafting retaliatory actions against China over Virus – WPT

Trump: He has seen evidence the virus originated in the Quhan institute of virology in China – RTRs

Trump: He cannot say why he has a high degree of confidence the virus originated at the Wuhan institute – RTRs

Trump: He could use tariffs to respond to China – RTRs

Trump: He does not have to stop debt payments to China, he can do tariffs (clarifying earlier comments) – RTRs

Trump: We have to protect the US Dollar – RTRs

Trump: Move on debt obligation could hurt sanctity, Currency – RTRs

Trump: The China trade deal now is secondary to what China did with the Virus – RTRs

Trump: Declines to say whether he holds Xi responsible for misinformation from China – RTRs

Trump: China either couldn’t stop the virus in terms of competence or they let it spread – RTRs

USD:

Trump: An extension of $600unemployment payments is being looked at – RTRs

Trump: Biden should respond to allegations of sexual misconduct; they could be false – RTRs

Kudlow denies report on cancelling China debt – CNBC

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AIG Manufacturing Index A 35.8 | P 53.7

JPY         BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

JPY         Foreign Bond Investment A -149.2b | P -423.2b

0600      GBP        Nationwide Housing Prices YoY A | C 2.5% | P 3%

0830      GBP        Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final A | C 32.8 | P 47.8

0830      GBP        Mortgage Approvals A | C 60k | P 73.55k

0830      GBP        Mortgage Lending A | C 3.5b | P 4b

1330      CAD       Markit Manufacturing PMI A | P 46.1

1345      USD       Markit Manufacturing PMI Final A | C 36.9 | P 48.5

1400      USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI A | C 36.9 | P 49.1

1700      USD       Baker Hughes Oil Total Rib Count A | P 465

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening quietly and dipping through into the Tokyo session to test to the lows of the day just above the 1.2425 area before slowly rising through to the 1.2475 area for the move into the grey hour, light selling through the London opening testing the 1.2450 level again but repeating the Tokyo session with a slow rise off the London’s lows to push through to the 1.2500 level holding for a period and through to the NYK session around the 1.2520 level and repeating the same move with a dip back through the 1.2500 level however, what seems to have been a baited trap for Trump seemed to suggest that he was considering very draconian type measures against China before correcting and stating that the idea was foolish (or was he) USD Dropped back quickly and Cable quickly pushed to above the 1.2640 level before dropping back and holding the 1.2600 level through to the London close before slowly ranging through to the close just below the level.
  • JPY: Holding quietly through the early part of the session around the 106.60 area before moving into the Tokyo session and USD buying moving through for the long weekend around the world and testing through to the 106.85 area before slowly drifting through into the grey hours testing to its lows pushing the 106.40 level before recovering a little to range through to the NYK session a switch to some of the other crosses for the market saw EURJPY and GBPJPY moving the USDJPY from the 106.45 level through quickly to the 107.20 before holding around the 107.00 area and through to the London close before running a second time to test the 107.50 before dipping back for the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6560 area and ranging through into early Tokyo holding the 0.6550 level before dipping a little through to the 0.6525 area before returning to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, London saw a similar range with a gradual drift through to the 0.6530 area before dipping on the NYK session testing below the 0.6500 level for the low of the day, a recovery for the move through to the London close before quietly drifting to a close holding above the 65 cents.
  • EUR: A very quiet session for the most part for the Euro until the NYK session and the Trump commentary, opening around the 1.0875 level and generally holding around the 1.0865 areas for the most part, the move into the NYK session initially saw USD buying and the low set around the 1.0835 level before a strong rally moved through the market to push the market to a stretch to the 1.0970 areas before stalling and drifting back a little and a quiet move to the close above the 1.0950 area,

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

JPY         Industrial Production (P) YoY A -5.2% | P -5.7%

JPY         Retail Sales A -4.6% | C -4.7% | P 1.7%

CNY       NBS Manufacturing PMI A 50.8 | C 51 | P 52

CNY       Non-Manufacturing PMI A 53.2 | P 52.3

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence A -66.6 | P -63.5

JPY         Consumer Confidence A 21.6 | P 30.9

JPY         Housing Starts YoY A -7.6% | C -16% | P -12.3%

EUR       German Retail Sales YoY A -2.8% | P 6.4%

EUR       German Unemployment Rate Harmonized A 3.5% | P 3.2%

CHF        Retail Sales YoY A -5.6% | P 0.3%

EUR       French Inflation Rate (P) YoY A 0.4% | P 0.7%

EUR       Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash A -5.2% | C -4.4% | P 0.4%

EUR       Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash A -4.1% | -3.2% | P 1.8%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicators A 63.5 | C 63.5 | P 92.9

EUR       German Unemployment Change A 373k | C 76k | P 1k

EUR       German Unemployment Rate A 5.8% | C 5.2% | P 5%

EUR       Italy Unemployment Rate A 8.4% | C 10.5% | P 9.7%

EUR       Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 1.0%

EUR       Eurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash A -3.8% | C -3.5% | P 0.1%

EUR       Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash A -3.3% | C -3.1% | P 1.0%

EUR       Eurozone Inflation Rate MoM Flash A 0.3% | P 0.5%

EUR       Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash A 0.4% | C 0.1% | P 0.7%

EUR       Eurozone Unemployment rate A 7.4% | C 7.7% | P 7.3%

EUR       Inflation Rate (P) YoY A 0% | C -0.2% | P 0.1%

EUR       GDP Growth Rate (A) YoY A -4.8% | C -5.1% | P 0.1%

EUR       GDP Growth Rate (A) QoQ A -4.7% | C -5% | P -0.3%

MXN      GDP Growth Rate (P) YoY A -1.6% | C -2.7% | P -0.5%

EUR       ECB Interest Rate Decision A 0% | C 0% | P 0%

CAD       Average Weekly Earnings YoY A 3.7% | P 4%

CAD       GDP MoM A 0% | C 0.1% | P 0.1%

EUR       ECB Press Conference

USD       Core PCE Price Index YoY A 1.7% | C 1.6% | P 1.8%

USD       PCE Price Index YoY A 1.3% | P 1.8%

USD       Continuing Jobless Claims A 17992k | C 19238k | 159756k

USD       Core PCE Price Index MoM A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.2%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 3839k | C 3500k | P 4427k

USD       Jobless Claims 4-week Average A 5033.25k | P 5786.5k

USD       PCE Price Index A -0.3% | P 0.1%

USD       Personal Income MoM A -2% | C -1.5% | P 0.6%

USD       Personal Spending MoM A -7.5% | C -5% | P 0.2%

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.