Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.627 | EURUSD 1.09032 | AUDUSD 0.65363 | NZDUSD 0.60974 | USDCAD 1.40056 | USDCHF 0.97128 | GBPUSD 1.21662 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09088 | 1.08879
USDJPY 107.781 | 107.55
GBPUSD 1.21914 | 1.21624
USDCHF 0.97224 | 0.9712
AUDUSD 0.65500 | 0.6523
NZDUSD 0.61057 | 0.6084
USDCAD 1.40061 | 1.39793
EURCHF 1.06024 | 1.05886
EURGBP 0.89567 | 0.89419
EURJPY 117.555 | 117.175
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2170-75 level the market moved into early Tokyo rising through to the 1.2185 level and into the Tokyo session fully touched above 1.2190 for the high of the day so far before drifting back to range just above the opening level through to the bank holiday In the UK and US, Topside offers a little weaker with the bulk of congestion around the 1.2300 level and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2350 level in some form with stronger offers then creeping in just above and increasing on any push to the 1.2400 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2150 level with support beginning to build after the recent move higher, weakness through the 1.2150 level and then increasing on any move to the 1.2100 area. With possible strong stops just below.
- JPY: Early sellers touched through to the 107.55 level before early Tokyo moved in to push gently through to the full session testing the 107.70 level and gradually testing above the 107.75 area for the highs of the day, a slow drift however, the market remained around the 107.70 level through to the London session, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: Opening in the 0.6530 area the market started a slow climb through into the Tokyo session making the high just above the 0.6550 level before dropping back quickly with the Oz under pressure a little as continuing concerns over Coal exports to China, the market tested steadily from the highs through to the 0.6520 area before finding limited buying in a limited market to see the market heading through to London unchanged. downside bids likely to appear on any test of the 64 cents level and through to the 0.6380 level where limited weak stops are likely to appear and quickly be absorbed by the congestive bids around the 0.6350 area and through to stronger bids into 63 cents. Topside offers through the 0.6600 level again and likely extending to the 0.6620 and possibly weak stops appearing to open a move through to the 0.6640-60 sentimental area with increasing offers on a push through to the 0.6680 levels.
- EUR: Quiet opening and the market holding just under the 1.0900 level through to the Tokyo session before rising slowly through to the high of the day just short of the 1.0910 level into midsession before slowly drifting through to the London session ranging around the 1.0890 level. Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.
Overnight News
CNY/USD:
Chinese Foreign Minister warns US against taking the countries to the brink of a new cold war – WPT
USD/CNY:
White House adviser O’Brien, will likely impose economic sanctions on Hong Kong and China – NBC
EUR:
Speculation is growing that ECB will announce more QE In June – BBG
HKD:
Hong Kong protests roar back after China tightens grip – BBG
CNY/AUD:
Coal market faces fresh speculation China shunning Australia – BBG
AUD:
Significant error: Treasury reveals much lower jobkeeper use – SMH
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
0500 JPY Leading Index A | C 83.8 | P 91.7
0600 EUR German GDP YoY Q1 A | C -1.9% | P -1.9%
0600 EUR German GDP QoQ Q1 A | C -2.2% | P -2.2%
0600 EUR German IFO Business Climate Index (MAY) A | C 78.3 | P 74.3
1730 CAD BoC Gov. Poloz Speech
2245 NZD Balance of Trade MoM (APR) A | P 672m
2245 NZD Balance of Trade YoY (APR) A | -3460m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Early buyers saw the highs into the Tokyo session taking the market to just short of the 1.2225 level before dipping in midsession through to the 1.2210 level and holding lightly around the level through to the London session testing the 1.2200 level a few times, London were quick sellers as EU and UK remain poles apart and European car makers making sounds to try and break the deadlock to limit any fall out for themselves. Early London sellers saw the market trading through to the eventual closing low around the 1.2160 area and forming the base through to the close and while there was a brief period of a rally pushing to the 1.2210 level it didn’t remain above the 1.2200 level for long with the run to the close holding around the 1.2170 level for the dip to the close.
- JPY: Initially rallying from the opening around the 107.55 area and testing in early Tokyo to the 1.775 level before drifting a little through to the second rally to push above the 107.80 level and ranging through into London drifting a little back to the 107.60 area and holding through into NYK with limited movement, safe haven buyers started to appear through NYK and USDJPY was forced through to the 107.30 area before long weekend closing trades appeared to leave the day just above the opening levels.
- AUD: Early highs in Tokyo after opening just below the 0.6570 area the market pushed lightly through the level before starting a steady drift through into the London session holding around the 0.6515 area, a minor recovery through to the NYK session saw the market pushing above the 0.6530 area however, NYK were not finished as JPY buying appeared and the AUD was forced down towards the 65 cents level before slowly recovering through to the close.
- EUR: The Euro didn’t really get going with the market opening around the 1.0950 level and pushing only slightly higher before running into the Tokyo session and after a couple of hours there started a steady drift through into the London session testing the 1.0920 level, pausing and then running steadily through to base around the 1.0890 area through deep into the NYK session with the market struggling to a close just above the 1.09 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Retail Sales QoQ Q1 A -0.7% | P 0.7%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY) A -34 | P -33
JPY National Core CPI YoY (APR) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.4%
JPY National CPI MoM A -0.2% | P 0.0%
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | P -0.10%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing A -61.36b | C -35b | P 2.33b | R -14b
GBP Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -18.1% | C -16.0% | P -5.1% | R -5.2%
GBP Retail Sales YoY (APR) A -22.6% | C -22.2% | P -5.8%
EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
CAD Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A -10.0% | C -10.0% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
USD Baker Hughes total Oil Rig Count A 318 | P 339
Best Regards
Andy
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