Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.551 | EURUSD 1.0982 | AUDUSD 0.66554 | NZDUSD 0.62257 | USDCAD 1.3776 | USDCHF 0.96554 | GBPUSD 1.23371 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09853 | 1.09553
USDJPY 107.614 | 107.366
GBPUSD 1.23413 | 1.23113
USDCHF 0.96699 | 0.96524
AUDUSD 0.66576 | 0.66313
NZDUSD 0.62035 | 0.61797
USDCAD 1.38052 | 1.37686
EURCHF 1.06034 | 1.05958
EURGBP 0.89067 | 0.8895
EURJPY 118.156 | 117.719
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet range for the day and a slow drift through to the 1.2315 area from the opening highs around the 1.2335-40 area. Topside offers through to the 1.2365 area with some congestion In the area and likely to find some weak stops through the level leaving the 1.2400 vulnerable to at least a strong test of the level, further weak stops on a break through the level and then congestion through the 1.2430-50 area and possibly exhausting any attempt higher with stronger congestion the closer the market gets to the 1.2500 level. Downside bids light back through the 1.2300 level and weak stops possibly waiting to run to the 1.2250 area where stronger bids start to appear and congestion then appearing through to 1.2200 in strength.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.50 level to move quietly through into Tokyo before dipping quickly through to the 107.35 level to make the lows and a steady rise through to make the highs for the session just above the 107.60 level before drifting back to range around the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: Limited range opening around the 0.6650 area the market moved quietly through into the Tokyo session testing lightly before the 0.6635 level before steadily rising to the sessions high just short of the 0.6660 area before repeating the move again in limited volume to move to the grey hour just below the opening levels. Topside offers likely to be strong from the 0.6680 area through to the 67 cents level, weak stops and breakout stops likely to be positioned in quick succession and opening a quick move through to the 0.6750 level with congestive offers likely to limit some movement however, there is a possibility of the market squeezing through and aiming for the 68 cents area before running out of steam, downside bids light through the 66 cents level with weak stops likely to open up the market to a quick reversal to the 65 Cents level before finding stronger bids then appearing and limited stops through then to the 0.6450 level and better congestion.
- EUR: Unable to make much headway in early trading to the topside the market started to drift from the meagre 1.0985 area into the Tokyo session and traded steadily through to the 1.0955 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on any attempt to push the 1.0980 level through to 1.1020 area and possible option related stops appearing to see a quick move through to the 1.1050 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.0900 level with weak stops quickly appearing and opening the market to a quick test of the 1.0850 level and limited congestion until closer to the 1.0800-1.0780 level and further stops.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ: Semi Annual Financial stability report, Vulnerabilities in bank assets, not funding – DJ
TWD:
Taiwan poised to step up cross strait missile capability – SMP
CNY:
China’s first convertible bond default looking more likely – BBG
China’s rubber stamp legislature moves forward on Thursday with blowing up one country, two systems – TWT
USD/CNY:
Trump says announcement on China action coming before weeks end- BBG
CAD:
Poloz: Negative rates needed only in extreme conditions
Poloz: Extreme conditions may happen if fiscal policy not used
EUR:
Schnabel: ECB won’t adjust monetary policy based on German court ruling
Schnabel: Unlikely Bundesbank will have to stop bond buys
Schnabel: Monetary policy strategy review to be postponed a bit
Schnabel: Not seeing serious market concerns on sovereign debt
Schnabel: ECB will have to counter Sovereign spread fragmentation
Schnabel: ECB not targeting specific Euro area spreads
Schnabel: ECB is ready to react to new data coming in
Schnabel: ECB ready to expand tools to achieve mandate
Schnabel: Germany may come through crisis comparatively well
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
CAD BoC Council Member Wilkins speaks
CAD BoC Gov. Poloz Speaks
NZD RBNZ Financial stability report
AUD Construction work done -1.0% | C -1.5% | P -3.0%
0730 EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks
0830 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1100 USD MBA Mortgage applications A | P -2.6%
1230 CAD Building Permits MoM (APR) A | P -13.2%
1630 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
1800 USD Beige Book
2030 USD Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -4.8m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Initially quiet with the market easing into the Tokyo session just off its lows and unchanged from the opening around the 1.2190 area and steadily rising in early Tokyo to just short of the 1.2225 level and a quiet range around the 1.2210-15 level through to the London session slowly pushing for the highs again. London were quick buyers this time testing the 1.2250 level pausing and running for a second time this time more steadily through to the 1.2275 area before catching stronger bids moving in and quickly rising through the 1.2300 level to test the 1.2320 level before slowly drifting for the move into the into the NYK session, NYK took the market through to the 1.2350 level from the opening and struggled with the level breaking through briefly to the 1.2360 area before again dropping back and ranging around the 1.2330 level through to the close.
- JPY: Ranging in the 107.70-75 area through to deep into the Tokyo session before quickly pushing up through the 107.90 level and then ranging in the 107.80-90 level to the London session, with the sellers slowly pushing the market through to the 107.40 level in a steady decline for the opening in NYK to buy into, limited recovery through to the 107.60 area and a slow range through the London close before drifting a little for the close.
- AUD: Opening just above the lows around the 0.6535 level the Oz stepped higher into the Tokyo session to push the 0.6565 level but struggled through to the London session before finding slow steady buyers through to NYK and the market pushing through to the 0.6620 level before pausing for the NYK opening and fresh impetus to take the market through to the 0.6650 level and a limited range for the balance of the session, one push late in the session to the 0.6675 level set the high and a drift through to the close.
- EUR: As with the others a slow rise of the early lows around the 1.0895 level and pushing gradually through the 1.0915 level in midsession to hold around the area for the London opening and further slow buying until a push through the 1.0950 area and a quick move to 1.0970, the move into the NYK session saw the market gradually taking out the highs and a slow push through to the 1.0995 level before a slow drift to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Balance of Trade MoM (APR) A 1267m | P 672m | R 722m
NZD Balance of Trade YoY (APR) A -2500m | -3460m | R -3400m
JPY All Industry Activity Index A -3.8% | P -0.6%
JPY BoJ Core CPI YoY A -0.1% | P 0.1%
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (JUN) A -18.9% | C -18.3 | P -23.4 | R -23.1%
CHF Employment Level Q1 A 5.102m | P 5.130m
EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (MAR) A 3.9% | C 3.3 | P 3.5%
USD Consumer Confidence (MAY) A 86.6 | C 88 | P 86.9 | R 85.7
USD New Home Sales (APR) A 623k | C 490k | P 627k | R 619k
USD New Home Sales MoM (APR) A 0.6% | C -21.9% | P -15.4% | R 13.7%
USD FOMC Member Kashkan Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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