Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.806 | EURUSD 1.1104 | AUDUSD 0.66696 | NZDUSD 0.62062 | USDCAD 1.3773 | USDCHF 0.96117 | GBPUSD 1.23478 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11406 | 1.11043
USDJPY 107.847 | 107.613
GBPUSD 1.24125 | 1.23285
USDCHF 0.96256 | 0.95987
AUDUSD 0.67414 | 0.66493
NZDUSD 0.62497 | 0.61874
USDCAD 1.37993 | 1.36989
EURCHF 1.06995 | 1.06737
EURGBP 0.90125 | 0.89712
EURJPY 119.971 | 119.598
For Today
- GBP: Although opening in premarket saw unchanged levels and the run too the official opening looking like USD weakness filtering through the actual opening saw a weak GBP and the market pushing off the 1.2320 level to fill the gap for the move into the Tokyo session and after a short period starting a quick push through to the 1.2380 level pause and run again through to push lightly through the 1.2400 level to test to the 1.2415 area before drifting back to hold the 1.2380 level for the move into the grey hour, light congestion through to the 1.2450 level with stronger offers likely to appear through to the 1.2480 level before the market opens up for a challenge of the 1.2500 area and weak stops joined by break out stops appear to open the market to a stronger move in the medium term. Downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with some bids in the area likely to be supportive in normal circumstances, a push through could see some stronger stops appearing and the market then opening to the 1.2200 level where stronger bids start to appear.
- JPY: A quiet session for the USDJPY with the market dipping on the opening only to recover for the move into the Tokyo session, early trading took the market away from the early lows just below the 107.70 level to push lightly above the 107.85 area before drifting through the balance of the session to test towards the 107.60 level for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids through to the 106.80 level with limited weak stops on a move through the level to open a test of the 106.50 area again, a push through leads to stronger bids appearing from the 106.30 area and likely to continue through to the 105.90-80 area with stops appearing and the market vulnerable to a larger fall through to the 105.00 area before stronger bids appear. Topside offers through to the 107.70-108.00 level and some limited congestive offers appearing, a push through to the 108.20 area has limited effect with some weak stops likely to be absorbed through to the 108.40 level and stronger offers thereafter through to the 108.80-109.00 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6655 area the market moved quietly through into the Tokyo session holding just above the 0.6650 area before starting a steady rise in a couple of waves to challenge the 0.6740 area before ranging around the 0.6725 level through to the grey hour, with China improving triggering hope for the Ozzies, Topside offers likely to be strong from the 0.6680 area through to the 67 cents level, weak stops and breakout stops likely to be positioned in quick succession and opening a quick move through to the 0.6750 level with congestive offers likely to limit some movement however, there is a possibility of the market squeezing through and aiming for the 68 cents area before running out of steam, downside bids light through the 66 cents level with weak stops likely to open up the market to a quick reversal to the 65 Cents level before finding stronger bids then appearing and limited stops through then to the 0.6450 level and better congestion.
- EUR; Euro’s opened stronger around the 1.1120-30 area dipping through in the early session to fill the gap on the charts to just above the figure area before starting a slow rally through to eventually break through the 1.1130 area and test the 1.1140 level and hold quietly as the market reads better things to come however, you do have to pay attention and remember the consequences of Jan 2015, Topside offers likely to be light through the 1.1160 level however, strength appears on any push to the 1.1180 level likely to negate any stops on a test through the 1.1150 old trend line, stronger offers likely to run through to the 1.1220 area before weak stops and congestion mix limit stronger runs higher. Downside bids light through to the 1.1000 area with bids appearing on any push through the 1.1020 level and stops lurking below the 1.0980 level for a quick test through to the 1.0920 areas and stronger support.
Overnight News
GBP:
UK Government preparing stimulus package for July – FT
EUR:
EU trade commissioner Hogan mulling candidacy for WTO chief
German Ministry proposes €5b car bonus scheme – Sources
AUD:
Australian house prices fall as shutdown hits property market
CNY:
Chinese factories humming doesn’t mean everyone is buying – SocGen
May Factory activity returns to growth, but demand remains weak
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
CNY Composite PMI (MAY) A 53.4 | P 53.4
CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 50.6 | C 51.0 | P 50.8
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 53.6 | P 53.2
JPY Capital Spending YoY (Q1) A 4.3% | P -3.5%
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 50.7 | C 49.6 | P 49.4
0715 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 38.0 | P 30.8
0745 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 37.1 | P 31.1
0750 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 40.3 | P 31.5
0755 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 36.8 | P 34.5
0800 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 39.5 | P 33.4
0830 GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 40.7 | P 40.6
1330 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | P 33.0
1345 USD Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 39.8 | P 36.1
1400 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (MAY) A | C 35.0 | P 27.5
1400 USD ISM Manufacturing PMIU (MAY) A | C 43 | P 41.5
2245 NZD Building Consents MoM (APR) A | P -21.3%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: The Asian session saw the Cable touching through to the 1.2315 area before recovering and slowly making its way towards the 1.2360 level for the move into the London session, dipping from the opening the London early morning saw the lows made just through the 1.2300 level testing towards the 1.2290 before rising after the second test of the level to steadily move into the NYK session testing through the 1.2365 level, pausing for a short period the market traded around the 1.2350 level, a quick rise once the US data was out of the way saw the Cable test to the 1.2395 level on a reach before holding quietly and then falling back sharply for the end of the London session and again testing the lows. A slow rise through to the close saw the market pushing for the 1.2350 level.
- JPY: JPY buying through the Tokyo session with the market dropping back from the early highs into the Tokyo opening to test from the 107.70 area through to the grey hour touching just below the 107.10 level to hold the 107.10-20 area through to mid-morning in London then testing above the 107.30 area before again dipping back to range in the 107.10-20 level into the NYK session, solid and quick buying through the US numbers saw the market rising to push through the 107.80 level and then ranging in the 107.80-90 area highs through to the close.
- AUD: Opening on its lows the market moved off the 0.6615 level and slowly rose through into the London opening pushing the 0.6655 area with a very quiet range through to the NYK session holding around the 0.6650-60 level until the final minutes and the opening in NYK rising through to the 0.6680 level before dropping steadily back towards the lows and then struggling higher from the 0.6620 to finish around the 0.6665 area.
- EUR: A steady slow rise from the opening low trading from midsession in Tokyo around the 1.1070 level to test the 1.1090 level for the move into the London opening and a quick dip and rise to repeatedly bounce around the 1.1090-.1.1110 levels eventually breaking to the topside to push through to the 1.1140 level before struggling with the level through into the NYK session and slipping quickly back to the 1.1110 area, some choppy trading through to the close of London saw the 1.1090 level tested a couple of times before slow run to the close sneaking slightly above the figure for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Jobs/Applications ratio (APR) A 1.32 | C 1.33 | P 1.39
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.2% | C -0.2% | P -0.1%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-food and Energy MoM (MAY) A 0.1% | P 0.1%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (APR) A -9.1% | C -5.1% | P -3.7%
JPY Retail Sales YoY (APR) A -13.7% | C -11.5% | P -4.7%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (APR) A 0.1% | P 1.1%
JPY Consumer Confidence A 24 | P 26.6
JPY Housing Sales -12.9% | C -12.1% | P -7.6% | R 1.2%
EUR German Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -6.5% | C -12.0% | P -5.6%
EUR French CPI MoM A 0.0% | P 0.0%
EUR French CPI YoY A 0.2% | P 0.3%
EUR French GDP QoQ Q1 A -5.3% | C -5.8% | P -5.8% | R -0.1%
CHF KOF Leading indicators (MAY) A 53.2 | C 70.0 | P 63.5 | R 59.7
EUR Italian GDP YoY (Q1) A -5.3% | C -4.7 | P -4.7% | R 0.1%
EUR Italian GDP (Q1) QoQ A -5.3% | C -4.8% | P -4.8% | R -0.2%
EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY A 0.9% | P 0.9%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM A -0.1% | P 0.3%
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (MAY) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.3%
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (APR) A 1.0% | C 1.1% | P 1.7%
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (APR) A -0.4% | C -0.3% | P -0.1% | R 0.0%
USD Goods Trade Balance (APR) A -69.68b | P -64.38b | R -64.98b
USD PCE Price Index YoY (APR) A 0.5% | P 1.3
USD PCE Price Index MoM (APR) A -0.5% | P -0.3% | R -0.2%
USD Personal Spending MoM (APR) A -13.6% | C -12.6% | P -7.5% | R -6.9%
CAD GDP MoM (MAR) A -7.2% | C -9.0% | P 0.6% | R 0.1%
CAD GDP QoQ (Q1) A -2.1% | P 0.1%
CAD GDP Annualized QoQ (Q1) A -8.2% | C -10.0% | P 0.3% | R 0.6%
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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